Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[mvd10]

If this cabinet falls Zijlstra could become a real threat for Rutte I think. Zijlstra got his time in the national spotlights with the coalition crisis about the rejected asylum seekers. If this cabinet falls Zijlstra might beat Rutte in a tea party-esque way because a lot of right wing vvd'ers already aren't too happy with this cabinet because they think it's too left wing and if this cabinet falls they might think Rutte's bipartisan approach has failed and go for Zijlstra who is (atleast perceived) as far more right wing than Rutte (and Schippers).

I think Rutte, Zijlstra and Schippers probably are the only realistic options for the vvd leadership. Perhaps van Baalen who probably will steal some votes from the christian parties. But I don't know if van Baalen will be popular here, my parents the other family members who somewhat know him all despise him for some reason, even the somewhat right wingers. And he might be a bit too right wing for the Netherlands, apparantly he once said he hoped Mccain would win the 2008 election and the general consensus in the Netherlands is that the average democrat is farther right wing than the vvd (the economically most right wing big party here, only VNL and the libertarian party are more right wing on economic issues but they are pretty small). That probably isn't completely true but I highly doubt Rutte or even Zijlstra would be republicans in the USA. Mostly because of their social views but economically they would be very moderate republicans at best, but probably still democrats.

[mvd10]

Didn't D66 use to hate, like absolutely loathe, the CDa?

Nah. In the 80s and the early 90s, yes, when the CDA was still the pivotal party. But the CDA's power as a pivotal party has been broken, which was essential to D66's founders ("breaking the system"), and most of D66's "crown jewels" in order to democratize the country have been implemented. What's more, the traditional culture wars on "social issues" (which D66 waged fanatically and which the CDA tried to hold back) are now over in the Netherlands. I could see a liberalization of our euthanasia policies and a liberalization (legalization) of our marijuana policies happening, somewhere in the future, but it doesn't really matter to most people anymore. We already have same-sex marriage and liberal trans laws, women can have an abortion, we might have the most liberal euthanasia policy after Belgium, and even if marijuana and XTC aren't "legalized" you can smoke up and pop pills as much as you want if you really like to do so (for instance, the nearest "coffee shop" is within 250 meters from my house and it's still open ). And even if the CDA isn't okay with all of this (though they're okay with some of it, such as abortion and SSM), they know it's not going to change anymore (and they never talk about these issues). All they can do is preventing it from becoming even more liberal.

CDA and D66 are quite different in terms of electorate, tone, and focus, but apart from the "social issues" that don't matter anymore anyway, they very much see eye to eye with each other: on the economy, on the EU, to some extent on immigration... Marijuana definitely won't be a dealbreaker. CDA and D66 might very well be the two parties that could most easily work together in a government right now: many overlap in policies yet not a lot of people who would be tempted to switch between these two parties.

D66 went into the 1994 election with the slogan ''let's put the CDA in opposition''. They won 24 seats. If you look at their militants today there is a clear difference of opinion, to put it lightly. They don't like each other. Old vs new politics.

Those clear divisions in the grassroots and the old grudges will make them working with each other harder than you make out. Particularly as the CDA is taking a socially rightward swing under their new leader.

Socially rightward? I always thought they were going economically rightward under Buma, I mean Buma spoke out against redistributing wealth and there were people in the CDA who researched the possibility of a flat tax rate and were positive about it (it wasn't really a flat tax rate though, there was a high bracket for high earners) but I didn't really notice a rightward swing in their social views. Their economic views really have changed since the last Balkenende cabinet (in my opinion atleast), which was sometimes criticized for redistributing wealth and having too much Labour party influence while the Christian Democrats won the election.

Next election is still pretty far away and Wilders is currently winning in the polls because of the refugee crisis but perhaps it won't be as big of an issue in March 2017 (presuming the cabinet won't fall).

Labour has been polling very bad but they have got some pretty popular people (Asscher, Aboutaleb, Dijsselbloem, van der Laan, even Timmermans and Koenders) and in 2010 they also were polling horribly, but when they nominated Cohen as their 'lijsttrekker' they suddenly were highest in the polls (they didn't win that election though), so perhaps that could happen again when they nominate someone like Aboutaleb. And in 2012 they also were polling pretty bad but Samsom had some good debate performances together with Rutte and suddenly the election became more of a 1v1 almost presidential Rutte vs Samsom election than a parliamentary election which probably benefited Labour and the VVD (people who normally would vote for a smaller party instead voted strategically for either Labour or the VVD to prevent the other from winning the election)

VVD-CDA-D66 doesn't have a majority in the senate (even with the SGP who often helped the current coalition in the senate they don't have a majority) so I think they probably will add another party to that, especially after having been in a senate minority cabinet for a few years now. I doubt Labour wants to govern with 3 centre right parties, especially not after what they currently are experiencing in the polls but I think Christian Union or Greenleft are options. But D66 may have trouble governing with 2 Christian parties and Greenleft may not want to govern with 3 centre right parties (on the economy).  But the next elections are still pretty far away unless Labour decides to break up with the VVD in order to gain popularity with left wingers.

[mvd10]

Halbe Zijlstra (parliamentary leader VVD) has received a letter with a bullet in it after the VVD announced a plan for more sober housing of the refugees (lower welfare, less healthcare coverage in order to discourage them from coming here). The car of a city councillor also has been burned down, probably also because of the refugee crisis.

It is interesting that both cases probably have to do with the refugee crisis, but the car of the councillor probably was burned down by an anti refugee activist or however you want to call it while Zijlstra probably wasn't threatened by an anti refugee activist since Zijlstra is pretty tough on the refugees, so the bullet letter probably was sent by a pro refugee activist (or it has nothing to do with the refugee crisis at all but given the timing of the bullet letter that seems unlikely to me).

That actually reminds me of the guy who killed Fortuyn, Volkert van der Graaf (Fortuyn's murderer) was a  leftist environmental activist who saw Fortuyn as a threat to the weakest members of the society (muslims, refugees, people living from welfare). The only real threat to society and democracy was van der Graaf himself though. Van der Graaf actually was released not too long ago and there already is a lot of controverse about him living on welfare and violating some rules. I really hope he goes back to jail again, like a talkshow host said: 'You either hate Volkert or you are him.'

[mvd10]

The budget for 2016 included a 5 billion tax cut, however that tax cut might not pass the senate. The cabinet has a majority in the second chamber (house of representatives) but they don't have a majority in the senate.

They either need CDA and D66 (christian democrats and social liberals) or CDA and 2 other small Christian parties. The small Christian parties and the CDA want more advantages for single earner households but the cabinet (and D66) doesn't want it since it wouldn't encourage people to work.

D66 thinks the tax plan of the cabinet isn't ambitious enough, and they don't want advantages for single earner households while the cabinet needs both D66 and 1 or 2 Christian parties for a majority. The cabinet has made a final offer, CDA seems to accept it but they still don't have a majority and the Christian parties made it clear they were not going to support the tax cut. And apparently D66 also is going to vote against it so bye bye tax cut.

EDIT:
Pechtold has said he will vote against it, but he is a representative (and the leader of D66) and while the senators usually vote the same as their counterparts in the house of representatives they can vote different (the original purpose of the senate was to check the new laws) so there still is a chance the tax cut will pass.

[mvd10]

Apparently former Christian Democratic PM Balkenende (2002-2010) once smuggled beer into a palace of some Gulf state emir (alchohol wasn't allowed in that state). Tbh Balkenende is the last person you expect to do this, this is the guy who campaigned really hard on norms and values and even wanted a commission for norms and values.

And the government's campaign strategy leaked out. They want a whole lot of organisations to campaign for the yes side (including LGBT rights groups, small business organisations and unions. They even want famous actors/footballers/whatever with an Ukrainian background to campaign for it. And the standard answers for certain questions also leaked out.

This referendum sadly will end up being a referendum on the government instead of a referendum on the association agreement and that isn't good. Dutch pollsters usually ask for grades instead of approvals but I think Rutte's approvals probably would be high twenties/low thirties at best.

[mvd10]

https://d66.nl/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/Tijdpad-Tweede-Kamerverkiezing-2017-Verkiezingsprogramma.pdf

According to this schedule D66 will release a draft of their 2017 election platform tomorrow. D66 has become a lot more right wing on economic issues the past few years, so I wonder what their platform will be like.

http://www.bnr.nl/nieuws/politiek/10309553/vvd-schuift-met-nieuw-verkiezingsprogramma-richting-pvv

The VVD platform will focus on security and restricting immigration. Bruijn (the platform writer) says people worry whether the Netherlands will stay the Netherlands and whether civil rights (LGBT rights, free speech) will be protected. He also says that while we should help real refugees with no other place to go, we shouldn't cram the Netherlands with hopeless economic refugees.

The VVD will also work on improving living conditions for the elderly. You wouldn't expect something like this being a priority to the VVD, but Wilders loves to accuse the coalition of neglecting the elderly while sending billions to southern Europe, so the VVD probably hopes to win PVV voters this way.

EDIT:

Apparently the draft version of the D66 platform will be released next week:

https://d66.nl/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/Tijdpad-Tweede-Kamerverkiezing-2017-Verkiezingsprogramma-Extern.pdf

[mvd10]

http://nos.nl/artikel/2128155-pvv-presenteert-programma-alle-azc-s-dicht.html

The PVV just released a draft version of their manifesto:

1. No more refugees, no more immigrants from Islamic countries, close all Islamic schools, close all mosques, ban the Quran
2. Nexit
3. More direct democracy
4. Eliminate health insurance copays
5. Lower rents
6. Lower the retirement age to 65
7. Eliminate subsidies for innovation, art and wind turbines, eliminate all development aid spending, cut all NOS (the public broadcaster) funding
8. Roll back some healthcare cuts
9. More defense and police spending
10. Cut income taxes by 3 billion (roughly 0.5% of GDP, so it will be a fairly small tax cut)
11. Cut vehicle excise duty

Pathetic. I can understand the reasoning behind closing Islamic schools, but banning the Quran and closing all mosques? Wtf? Lowering the retirement age, more rent controls and eliminating health insurance copays are all terrible ideas too.

[mvd10]

Pathetic. I can understand the reasoning behind closing Islamic schools, but banning the Quran and closing all Mosques? Wtf? Lowering the retirement age, more rent controls and eliminating health insurance copays are all terrible ideas too.

It's bad, but it's nothing new -- they've been saying this for years. The Qur'an ban was already in their 2012 election manifesto, and they have advocated closing all mosques since 2014. I don't really understand your surprise.

You're right. I don't know how I missed that. I always thought they only wanted a ban on building new mosques.

D66 wants to make sure everyone can get a permanent contract, but they also want to make it easier to fire people, so it's not like they suddenly oppose a flexible labour market.

Asscher is the Minister of Social affairs btw.

[mvd10]

The 2017 budget will be released next week. Like always the most important provisions have already been leaked. After years of austerity the government suddenly found 1.5 billion to invest in healthcare, defense, education and police and 1 billion to make sure nobody will be off worse next year. It's the last budget before the election, so you could have expected it. The deficit will be 0.7% of GDP.

Economic growth is projected to be 1.7%. It's a shame the coalition and opposition didn't manage to come to an agreement on tax reform in 2015, I'm sure that could have boosted economic growth and job creation. The Dutch tax code is really bad imo. Because there are a lot of deductions (mainly the mortgage interest deduction, which costs something like 13 billion/2% of GDP) income tax rates are fairly high (36.55%, 40.4% and 52%). Stamp duty (6%) and the wealth tax (currently 1.2% for anything above 20k but it will become more progressive in 2017) also are terrible. A lot of products are taxed on the low VAT rate (6%) instead of on the normal rate of 21%. And the corporate tax rate isn't really that competitive anymore (25%). But the VVD isn't going to limit the mortgage interest deduction in a meaningful way while the other parties probably don't really want to raise the lower VAT rate (especially not on groceries, imagine the PVV/SP outrage).

[mvd10]

The 2017 budget will be released next week. Like always the most important provisions have already been leaked. After years of austerity the government suddenly found 1.5 billion to invest in healthcare, defense, education and police and 1 billion to make sure nobody will be off worse next year. It's the last budget before the election, so you could have expected it. The deficit will be 0.7% of GDP.

Economic growth is projected to be 1.7%. It's a shame the coalition and opposition didn't manage to come to an agreement on tax reform in 2015, I'm sure that could have boosted economic growth and job creation. The Dutch tax code is really bad imo. Because there are a lot of deductions (mainly the mortgage interest deduction, which costs something like 13 billion/2% of GDP) income tax rates are fairly high (36.55%, 40.4% and 52%). Stamp duty (6%) and the wealth tax (currently 1.2% for anything above 20k but it will become more progressive in 2017) also are terrible. A lot of products are taxed on the low VAT rate (6%) instead of on the normal rate of 21%. And the corporate tax rate isn't really that competitive anymore (25%). But the VVD isn't going to limit the mortgage interest deduction in a meaningful way while the other parties probably don't really want to raise the lower VAT rate (especially not on groceries, imagine the PVV/SP outrage).

Raising the higher VAT rate from 19% to 21% was a very bad decision by Kunduz and the current government not reverting that decision unnecessarily slowed down economic recovery in 2013 and 2014. To raise the lower VAT rate would be even more unpopular, so yeah, definitely not happening.

The current government talked a lot about reforming the tax code, but doing so proved to be too controversial and no substantial changes were made. Of course, the fact that the government lacks a majority in the Senate did not help either. This year's Prinsjesdag budget is supposed to be very uncontroversial. Unpopular budget cuts in the healthcare sector are reverted. There is also much focus on increasing the purchasing power of the elderly. Of course, this has nothing to do with the upcoming general election

Mvd10, do you know what changes were eventually made with regard to the the mortgage interest deduction? I have not followed that saga (not a homeowner). It was one of the big themes of the 2010 election, the Rutte-I parties did not change anything, but what happened afterwards?

The maximum value of the deduction will be limited to 38% (0.5% a year so it will take 28 years before it's fully phased in).

And the wealth tax will be made more progressive next year. The first 25k will be exempt. You'll pay 0.87% over the next 75k, 1.4% over the next 850k and 1.65% over anything above that. I actually thought this proposal didn't pass the senate because the centrist/centre-right opposition parties were opposed to it but apparently it did pass the senate.

[mvd10]

So, a few points from the VVD manifesto (which will be presented in a few hours):

€1 billion more for defense
€10 billion in tax cuts for households and businesses
mandatory lessons about Dutch values (LGBT rights, gender equality, separation of church and state) for immigrants

GDP is roughly €700 billion so the tax cuts will be like 1.5% of GDP (actually that's roughly the size of the Bush tax cuts for American readers) and the extra defense money will be 0.15% of GDP (but defense spending still will be nowhere near the NATO target). These are just a few points Rutte gave away, the actual manifesto will contain much more. 10 billion in tax cuts is quite ambitious and the extra money for defense is needed, so I like it so far. According to the CPB increased spending or tax cuts needs to be matched equally with tax hikes or spending cuts so they have to pay for it through spending cuts (or tax hikes).

[mvd10]

Most voters who left the PvdA probably hate this coalition and I don't think they're coming back for the deputy prime minister. Even though they managed to come back from behind in 2010 and 2012 I just can't see them pulling that stunt again. I'm probably going to look incredibly stupid in five months when the result is VVD 33 PvdA 31 or something like that.

[mvd10]

Excluding international agreements from the referendum law probably saves us from a TTIP referendum (if the EU and the US ever reach an agreement).

[mvd10]

Dutch prosecutors have demanded that Geert Wilders be fined 5000 euros for his fewer Moroccans speech. In 2014 after the local elections Wilders asked his voters whether they want more or fewer Moroccans. His supports chanted fewer and he said that he would take care of that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_YEpoG5N8k

[mvd10]

Asscher just defeated Samsom 54.5-45.5 in the PvdA primary. I expected Samsom to win tbh. I wonder what this means for potential coalitions. I always saw Asscher as more centrist than Samsom but lately Asscher has been talking about a strong left-wing block with SP and GroenLinks.

[mvd10]

Rutte says "chances of cooperating with the PVV are zero."

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/01/15/rutte-kans-op-samenwerking-met-pvv-is-nul-a1541314

He would say that, wouldn't he

Again, look how well it worked with SP. Polling as high as 36 to gaining no seats.

But this is still a more surprising move IMO. The right wing of the VVD are definitely nit going to like a 5 party coalition to Rutte's left instead of a simple 3 party PVV-VVD-50+.

I would like this coalition to happen. It would kill 3 birds with one stone.

But they only have 24 seats in the senate (26 if you also include SGP) and you need 38 seats for a majority in the senate. PVV-VVD-CDA-50PLUS-SGP has a majority in the senate but I can't see the CDA joining a coalition with the PVV.

VVD-CDA-D66 with support from CU and SGP (and maybe even 50PLUS) might get a majority, and I think the VVD would be fairly happy with that coalition. 50PLUS probably would support a ''neoliberal'' cabinet as long as pensions are raised. I'm not sure if D66 wants to be in a coalition with 50PLUS and 2 socially conservative parties though.

[mvd10]

Most D66 members are to the left of their leadership. Last year a couple of local D66 politicians wanted D66 to become more left-wing and focus on inequality instead of economic reforms. Jan Terlouw (former D66 leader) even criticized neoliberalism.

The most hilarious thing about Pechtold's tax plan is that Pechtold criticized the VVD/PvdA tax cut in 2015 because it was a "dumb'' tax cut that wouldn't increase employment and increase the debt while I fail to see how his tax plan is any different.

[mvd10]

When I go onto the English wiki for Dutch opinion polls, each poll has 1-4 seats going to "Other". When I go on the Dutch version, it has DENK, Pirates and what appears to be two PPV-alternative parties winning between 0-2 seats each dependingo on the poll. What are these parties' chances of getting into parliament?

DENK probably has the best chance. But pretty much all of their voters are muslims (especially muslims with a Turkish background) and they are very hard to poll. I don't think VNL and FvD are going to make it. In the past there have been similar small right-wing parties and they never made it into parliament, so it's probably not going to happen, especially now the right-wing vote will be split between FvD and VNL. And I don't think there is much space for more right-wing parties. Leaving the EU will probably scare away VVD voters while their libertarian economic platform (flat taxes and stuff like that) will scare away PVV voters. I don't know anything about the pirate party tbh.

[mvd10]

I agree with others here that DENK are probably getting in; VNL and FVD are the only other ones who have a remotely realistic shot of getting in, but that's probably not happening anyway.

I wrote this for another, slightly less serious website on the parties that are on the ballot yet weren't elected in 2012. Don't shoot.

12. Ondernemerspartij: if you're not yet sick and tired of former PVV MP and known alcoholic troublemaker Hero Brinkman ("Drinkman"), who now pretends to stand up for small businesses' interests. Electoral potential: 0
13. VNL: if you agree with Wilders but don't think he has the best words -- a drunk like Jan Roos is obviously more sensitive -- and also want tax cuts. Electoral potential: 35% chance they get in.
14. DENK: if you think Erdogan is actually p cool. Electoral potential: 90% chance they get in.
15. NIEUWE WEGEN: if you're a social democrat fed up with the PvdA who wants less EU and, as opposed to the SP, less immigration, but you don't like Wilders for some reason. Electoral potential: <5% they get in.
16. Forum voor Democratie: if you're highly educated and like your party leader to lie on a piano and pretend his party is the new D66 while it's really a cheap copy of the PVV (but pro-Putin and pro-MRA). Electoral potential: 25% chance they get in.
17. De Burger Beweging: if you don't like the financial system but you also can't write proper Dutch. Electoral potential: 0
18. Vrijzinnige Partij: if you want a universal basic income and you think someone who split off from 50Plus is the man. Electoral potential: 0.
19. GeenPeil: if you think it's a good idea if MPs just vote on the basis of random open internet polls -- what could possibly go wrong? Electoral potential: <5% they get in.
20. Piratenpartij: if you think privacy is cool, or if you just think parliament would look better with a fetish model in it. Electoral potential: <5%.
21. Artikel1: if intersectional feminism is really your thing. Electoral potential: <5%.
22. Niet Stemmers: if you're a non-voter but you're voting anyway? Electoral potential: 0 (come on, their voters aren't voting...).
23: Libertarische Partij: if you think this country should become much more FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE BUT SOCIALLY LIBERAL. Also my first electoral love; 2012 parliamentary election, never forget Electoral potential: 0 (they even lost me lmao)
24: Lokaal in de Kamer: if you're a local, probably corrupt politician and you figure national politicians are spectacularly unpopular so why not try? Electoral potential: 0.
25. JEZUS LEEFT: if you think Jesus is alive? Electoral potential: 0.
26. StemNL: if you want to vote on issues instead of for parties and candidates. Electoral potential: 0.
27. MenS and Spirit/Basisinkomen/Blah blah blah: if you think homeopathy works, we should work on our chakras more, vaccines may not work, etc. Electoral potential: 0.
28. VDP: if you're a Turk, hate Jews and gays, and think DENK are cucks for even pretending to be inclusive. Electoral potential: 0 (thank f**k)

Not on the ballot this time and sorely missed are SOPN (anti-chemtrail party; still got more votes than the LP in 2012...), IQ Partij (openly racist party by a guy with an insane German accent who thinks Ashkenazi Jews are dangerous) and the LibDems (someone who has too much money but is antisemitic too).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sX5kJdwZ164

I'll never forget this.

[mvd10]

MMM seems like a good idea. Grand coalitions don't have to be bad, but I don't think it's healthy for a democracy if most coalitions end up being centrist 4 party coalitions with only minimal movements to the left or the right depending on the election result. There needs to be a real choice imo.

[mvd10]

83% VVD
77% OndernemersPartij (ugh, I probably agree with them on the issues but I'd never vote for Brinkman)
69% CDA
69% VNL
66% SGP
63% Libertarische Partij
60% Forum voor Democratie
Too lazy to mention the rest

Pretty much as expected. Had a bit of doubt about the mortgage deduction. Is it correctly understood that an agree to that question would mean that the tax deduction is not reduced, i.e. benefitting wealthy property owners who can get bigger tax deductions due to expensive mortgage interests?

Yes, you understood that correctly, though it wouldn't only benefit wealthy property owners (afaik it has been restricted over a certain amount of money already, though I'm sure mvd10 can tell you more about this) but also ordinary middle and upper middle class homeowners. Also, not further reducing it is the status-quo, so no one will get a bigger tax deduction than is now the case.

The maximum value of the mortgage interest deduction will be limited to 38% instead of 40.8% or 52%, the tax brackets of most people with mortgages. There also have been some further restrictions. But it's probably not going to be an issue this campaign which is pretty sad since this seems the ideal time to limit it even further (historically low mortgage interest rates).

PM Rutte's second choice according to the Stemwijzer is the SGP btw. It seems weird, but none of the issues on which the SGP is far outside the mainstream (abortion, death sentence and LGBT rights) is mentioned in the Stemwijzer and on issues like taxes and defense the SGP is pretty close to the other centre-right parties so that probably explains it.

[mvd10]

But it's probably not going to be an issue this campaign which is pretty sad since this seems the ideal time to limit it even further (historically low mortgage interest rates).

Just wondering: why do you want to limit it even further? I'm not knowledgeable at all on this topic, but I generally don't think even more "nivellering" is a good idea. Higher income earners already pay so much in taxes here.

It distorts the housing market. And limiting it doesn't have to be wealth redistribution, you can use the revenue to cut income tax rates for higher income earners. But yeah, parties which want to limit it even further are mainly left-wing parties which want to raise taxes on higher income earners, something I oppose.

[mvd10]

The new mayor of The Hague (third biggest city in the Netherlands) will be announced today (we don't directly elect our mayors, they are appointed). I don't know why but the name of former PM Balkenende (CDA) is floating. It's probably fake, I can't see him leaving his nice job at Ernst & Young to be mayor of The Hague.

[mvd10]

The new mayor of The Hague (third biggest city in the Netherlands) will be announced today (we don't directly elect our mayors, they are appointed). I don't know why but the name of former PM Balkenende (CDA) is floating. It's probably fake, I can't see him leaving his nice job at Ernst & Young to be mayor of The Hague.

Wouldn't be surprised if it were a PvdA member. Rumor has it a lot of them will be jobless after March 15.

Plasterk? But I've read that CDA and VVD wants one of their politicians to be the next mayor of The Hague because the PvdA already has the mayors of Amsterdam and Rotterdam.

[mvd10]

If GroenLinks had someone like Halsema or Sap as leader I could easily see a VVD-CDA-D66-GroenLinks coalition. But under Klaver they have shifted to the left (and it has worked for them, even though it probably has more to do with Klaver) so I don't think they will back a coalition with those 3 parties. And it doesn't even have a majority in the polls at the moment (it's close though). I hope the PvdA won't commit suicide by entering a coalition with these 3 parties. So that only leaves VVD-CDA-D66 with support from some small parties. I just hope we can keep 50PLUS out of this. But apparently Buma and Rutte hate each other, and Klaver has talked about kicking the VVD out, so perhaps a 6 party coalition without the VVD and PVV is an option (CDA-GroenLinks-D66-PvdA-SP-CU?). I don't think that will happen though.