Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Tintrlvr]

The most loyal elderlies are CDA voters who do turn out, not 50Plus voters, who David says are similar to PVV and SP voters. I am quite suprise about the turnout of D66 expected it higher, higher than GL.

This was striking. I would have thought D66 voters were basically GL voters but wealthier and maybe a bit older. GL voters being more likely to vote than D66 voters is shocking, to the point where it almost makes the survey seem dubious.

[Tintrlvr]

Seems disappointing for GL relative to exit polls. How do they get to 11% nationally with just 19% in Amsterdam?

[Tintrlvr]

Seems disappointing for GL relative to exit polls. How do they get to 12% nationally with just 19% in Amsterdam?

Because Amsterdam and the Randstad account for a massive chunk of the population?

The key is whether GL can maintain this in Utrecht, and get semi-decent results in The Hague and Rotterdam. I think judging by Amsterdam they will lose Utrecht to D66 though.

GL are below their exit poll figure right now nationally even though a majority of the votes reported are coming from Amsterdam.

Edit: Maybe the national tally was off. It's updated and they are at around 15% nationally now.

[Tintrlvr]

Denk + Artikel 1 more than 10% in Amsterdam. Its really disgusting

What's wrong with Artikel 1? I get the unease about Denk (they seem like malevolent Turkish nationalists wrapping themselves up in the language of internationalism and political correctness), but Artikel 1 seems benign, sort of what a decent Denk would be.

[Tintrlvr]

Pekala!

Wow, PVV did really well there.

Is that an exact tie between PVV and SP?

[Tintrlvr]

One question, is North Holland an hostile territory to CDA? Their rise there is much lower than in the rest of the country

I think Noord-Holland even outside the Amsterdam region is less religious, so people leaving VVD or PvdA there are more likely to switch to D66, GL or PVV than CDA. D66 has a bunch of second-place finishes there so far.

[Tintrlvr]

lol D66 wins Utrecht, expected GL to win Utrecht instead of D66. I expected GL performing better in Utrecht than in Amsterdam

GL did do better in Utrecht than in Amsterdam, but D66 also did better in Utrecht than Amsterdam, and by enough to pip GL in Utrecht.

Also, lol PvdA. People were saying Leeuwarden was their best chance at winning a municipality, and they came seventh.

[Tintrlvr]

PVV seems to get a 20th seat while GL is down to 14. A little unfortunate, but won't change much in the grand scheme of things.

GL is going to finish behind SP in sixth, at least in votes, and tied for fifth in seats, which has to be disappointing for a party that at times was flirting with second.

[Tintrlvr]

What exactly is the voter base of the Animal Rights' party and how is it different to GL?

I seem to recall some analysis that suggests their votes are less prosperous and more cynical of politics.

Yup, DavidB schooled me on this because I found it really hard to believe but PvdD have their best results in the Deep South as a sort of protest (its SP-PVV territory in the urban areas there), as well as their usual demograpic of student cities.

imho wilders can't hope for a better global environment the next time. ...the populist moment is at its peak, it could hardly get any better, gifts like a refugee crisis happen only so often and that the turkey thing was helping rutte an not wilders is telling enough.

The debate just after the issue must have helped. Rutte i think said the line that will be remembered for this election (like Balkendaele's "You look so pretty" but the opposite effect). "There is a difference between tweeting from the sofa and governing the country". From then on he made Wilders look amateurish, he planted that idea and it worked wonders IMO.

PvdD's demographic profile seems to have changed somewhat this time. They did very well in Noord-Holland for some reason (5.7% in Bergen, 4.8% in Alkmaar and 4.0% in Castricum, e.g., all stronger than any result in the far south).

[Tintrlvr]

A1's result in Zuidoost Amsterdam is interesting. Is that a heavily immigrant but mostly non-Turkish area? I see it was also PvdA's best result in Amsterdam but not particularly strong for anyone else (including Denk).

[Tintrlvr]

Pct of party voters that are over 65:
PvdA: 44%
CDA: 31%
VVD: 24%
SP: 19%
GL: 18%
D66: 16%
PVV: 11%
CU/SGP: 11%

Pct of party voters that are under 35:
GL: 35%
CU/SGP: 33%
D66: 32%
VVD: 22%
PVV: 22%
CDA: 18%
SP: 16%
PvdA: 13%

Big ouch for PvdA but actually seems like worse news for CDA. PvdA got thrashed this election and reduced to its very core strongly habitual supporters, who are indeed quite old, but has the opportunity to come back. For CDA, even in an election that feels like a major victory, their vote is very old, showing that their maximum possible vote share continues to decline (though perhaps not if they turn more socially conservative and can start stealing away more votes from the very young CU and SGP).

[Tintrlvr]

Apparently PvdA did in fact lead in a municipality: Sint-Eustatius, according to Wikipedia. NOS doesn't have results for the overseas territories; anyone have them?

[Tintrlvr]

  So, what parties outside of the Fvd, attempted to coopt the PVV nationalist message, if any?  And which were the most against? (I'm guessing Denk of course, and GL?).

D66 and GL are the most anti-nationalist parties. Denk isn't really anti-nationalist; they're just Turkish nationalists instead of Dutch nationalists. A1, which was a Denk splinter group that didn't make it in, was more genuinely about immigrant rights and tolerance than Denk. In addition to PVV and FvD, there were some nationalist parties that didn't make it in, most prominently VNL, which was a PVV splinter group that had MPs in the outgoing parliament.

[Tintrlvr]

I'm quite annoyed by the lack of good maps this time around. I want a map where I can see support for one party across the country by municipality to get a better understanding of the picture. I especially wonder whether the support pattern for the VVD is now different than in 2010, when they received a similar percentage of the vote. I'm also interested in seeing the PVV map across the country and compare it to the map in 2014, when they got 13.3% in the European election, and the 2011 map, when they got 12.4% in the provincials.

My first impression is that the PVV lost some voters in the South, while it gained in the northeast compared to 2010.

Map where the combined right won, Its mainly outside the Randstad

The right was strongest in the north? Does this mean a lot of PvdA voters went to them?

It's a map of where the right-wing parties gained or lost. The right was still relatively weak in the northeast compared to nationally. PvdA votes scattered, but a fair number went to CDA and PVV, albeit fewer than went to GL, D66, PvdD and SP (the last only in the northeast), so the overall gains for the right were greater where the PvdA vote was higher relative to the other parties of the center and left in 2012.

[Tintrlvr]

What's so non-average about Edam-Volendam?

[Tintrlvr]

Are you sure the D66 and GL maps in The Hague are correct? Looks like the exact same map. I'm sure they are correlated, but would be surprised to learn they were correlated that strongly in the Hague when the correlation is only moderate in the other cities.

[Tintrlvr]

I spent a while searching for bizarre polling districts where D66/PVV or PVV/D66 (or, for that matter, GL/PVV or PVV/GL) were first and second and couldn't find any. Anyone have better luck than me?

There were some polling districts in southern Rotterdam (and maybe elsewhere) where Denk/PVV or PVV/Denk were first and second, but that's not really surprising.

[Tintrlvr]

Might a five-party VVD-CDA-D66-GL-CU coalition be a reasonable solution to a lot of the issues that are plaguing formation? Such a coalition would be less clearly on the economic right, containing two economically left-wing parties along with the more centrist D66, and that would allow D66 to accept the loss of parts of its socially progressive agenda because it would not be forced to accept other right-wing policies if GL and CU are both in government also and would have cover to their left. Would require VVD to cave on the environmental issues that ultimately sunk the agreement with GL, though, since CU would obviously side with GL there, but it's not clear that that would not be an issue with CU alone also. And I know they don't need both GL and CU in order to have a majority, but it seems like, given the inevitable ideological fractiousness of any government, it would be better to have a government that can survive some dissension (whereas VVD-CDA-D66-CU couldn't).

[Tintrlvr]

To continue the attempted France analogy above, in terms of voter profile, the FvD is the FN in the 1990s, but the PVV is the FN today.