Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Vosem]

So, took the test, and got a rather odd result...

63 Ondernemers Partij
60 D66
60 PvdA
57 CDA
57 ChristenUnie
53 Artikel
53 Neuwe Wegen
53 Denk
53 VNL
53 VVD
53 Vrijzinnige Partij
50 50Plus
50 LidK
50 GroenLinks
47 SGP
43 FVD
43 PvdD
40 Pirates
40 Libertarische Partij
40 SP
37 PVV
33 DBB

Didn't expect so many parties to be so high, nor for PVV to be so low (it's not unusual for these sorts of tests to recommend UKIP or AfD for me when I answer British or German questionnaires). Was also quite surprised to see PvdA so high (even ahead of VVD!).

[Vosem]

I really want Ancilla to win a seat. I think I'd accept a large PVV over-performance if it meant Ancilla got a seat.

I could see Pirates benefiting off GroenLinks deflation, actually, so hopefully that's what's going on

[Vosem]

It's not even just Ancilla as eye candy; I really like the idea of pirate politics in general and want it to become a stronger force generally, and I'm also enough of a Latin nerd that I innately sympathize with someone who has changed their name to a word in Latin (I have an acquaintance I met attending the US's national Classics convention in 2014 who did this, though she chose Aquila as her name rather than the more lulzy Ancilla).

I've spoken enough with David that I've put aside the idea that were I Dutch I'd vote D66 (which was what I'd thought at the beginning of this campaign), but I think this is a case where VVD is my head's choice but the heart wants Pirates. Shame the votes aren't transferable, like in Australia; it would make decisions in a system like this a lot easier.

[Vosem]

Final prediction:
VVD 26
CDA 20
PVV 20
D66 18
GL 17
SP 15
PvdA 11
CU 6
PvdD 5
50+ 4
SGP 3
DENK 2
FvD 2
PP 1
VNL 1

[Vosem]

Following this with great interest -- the results of the "exit poll" from Heemskerk look absolutely terrific, with a massive VVD lead and a seat for Ancilla, and if they're likely to be off in terms of religious parties (CDA/CU/SGP) doing somewhat better, that would be a result I'd definitely be cool with. Always nice to see high turnout and people taking interest in their governance, as well.

[Vosem]

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[Vosem]

VVD 31
PvdA 9
PVV 19
SP 14
CDA 19
D66 19
CU 6
GL 16
SGP 3
PvdD 5
50PLUS 4

And 5 for DENK+FvD+PP?

[Vosem]

None of the three towns currently reporting are really base areas for the SGP, but why are they down from 2.1% to 0.7%? Seems like an ominous result for them.

Also very unfortunate to see PP currently not improving on the 2012 result...

[Vosem]

Amusingly, with a town in the Bible Belt (called Renswoude) being the first to report after three very low-population municipalities, the SGP is now in third place nationally...

Also, they're now gaining compared to these municipalities in 2012, from 9.3% to 11.1%. What would be the point in sending youth to vote in the first municipalities to report to vote SGP? To get a very little  bit more coverage in the early Election Night reporting?

[Vosem]

Some northern municipalities from that former block of PvdA support seem to be giving their pluralities to CDA, who now seem likely to come in second after VVD. PVV is on the board with a win in Simpelveld.

[Vosem]

Anyone got a live results page?

http://nos.nl/artikel/2163332-tk17-bekijk-hier-de-uitslagen.html

[Vosem]

SP on the board with a win in Gennep, in spite of declining support there (and in every municipality that has reported to date, I think), which amazingly enough was a VVD municipality in 2012. It also voted SP in 2010, though before that it was a bellwether municipality, voting CDA in the 2000s and 1980s and PvdA in the 1990s.

PP on the whole seem to be doing roughly the same as their (disappointing and insufficient) 2012 performance -- no chance that Ancilla is doing better in the cities?

EDIT: Apparently, SP is barely up nationally at the moment from 10.6% to 10.7% -- what am I missing?

[Vosem]

Groen Links and D66 on the board with first places in Amsterdam and Groningen -- PP strong enough for a seat in both municipalities. 0.5% nationally, which is close to enough for a seat

EDIT: SGP on the board too with a hold in Hardinxveld-Giessendam. It voted for them in 2012 as well, so nothing revolutionary

[Vosem]

CU holds Bunschoten

[Vosem]

GL taking Amsterdam is their first-ever municipality win; what a debut

[Vosem]

What is keeping some of these late municipalities from reporting?

[Vosem]

Final prediction:
VVD 26 (+7)
CDA 20 (-1)
PVV 20 (-)
D66 18 (+1)
GL 17 (-3)
SP 15 (-1)
PvdA 11 (-2)
CU 6 (-1)
PvdD 5 (-)
50+ 4 (-)
SGP 3 (-)
DENK 2 (+1)
FvD 2 (-)
PP 1 (-1)
VNL 1 (-1)