Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[MAINEiac4434]

So these are the VVD campaign posters. When someone sent these to me I thought they were parodies, but they're not. The campaign logan is literally: "Act. Normally. VVD."


"Being able to walk hand in hand without fear. Very normal."
"Kicking ambulance first responders into the hospital. Not normal."
"Being taught at home that you have to respect the police. Very normal."
"Putting your arm around someone else. Very normal."
"Pulling the Netherlands out of the crisis. Very normal."

Disparaging Trump supporters didn't work well in the US, I wonder how it'll work in the Netherlands...

[MAINEiac4434]

Wow, I hadn't thought of the possibility of interpreting the campaign like that. I find this confusion to be funny (and I'm sure Rogier will too) because PVV supporters, indeed, have been dismissed as "deplorables" in the past too. However, this VVD campaign is aimed -- at least partly, in a subtle way -- at immigrants and their descendants who have to "act normally", not at PVV supporters. On the contrary, with this campaign the VVD intends to win over tough-on-crime, immigration-skeptic VVD-PVV swing voters who are now inclined to vote for the PVV.

Well the first thing I thought of is the post-Trump mantra "this is not normal." Might just show my US-centric bias, however.

[MAINEiac4434]

Animals: 81% (surprising)

Artikel: 71%

PvdA: 68%

D66: 68%

GroenLinks: 68%

SP: 68%

Denk: 68%

VP: 62%

Pirates 61%

PVV is one of my last parties, behind even SGP.

[MAINEiac4434]

First time I've seen PVDA above SP in awhile. And disaffected PVV voters can't be going to D66 can they?

[MAINEiac4434]

Watch this:


This has the potential to be BIG.

Of course a Rutte-Buma two-horse race with D66-VVD swing voters ending up voting for Rutte and PVV-CDA swing voters ending up voting for Buma would be nuts since CDA and VVD will both be in the next government, but these voters on the right may not mind. In fact, they probably want both to be in the coalition.

That said, caution is needed here. Many PVV voters may prefer Buma to Rutte yet will still not be willing to vote for him.

And check that D66 number for Rutte.

[MAINEiac4434]

For our Dutch posters

I like the faux Turkish.

[MAINEiac4434]

Yesterday in Rotterdam and Amsterdam:

Violent Turks kicking Dutch police officers on the ground while chanting "Allah is great !" and holding Turkish flags and chanting slogans in support of their fanboy and dictator Erdogan, while verbally and physically abusing their home country Netherlands ...

What is this 5th column still doing there ? Get the f**k out of Holland and back to Turkey, where you fu**ing a**holes belong !

Stop helping wilders ffs

[MAINEiac4434]

may i ask what's the special thing about SGP...hardcore religious "nuts" in the kind of the israeli religious parties?

Borderline theocrats. Didn't allow women into leadership rolls for a long, long time.

[MAINEiac4434]

Where is it live?

I'm watching on Youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vs7s3QwCh3Q

Don't understand a word they are saying, but thanks!

I occasionally pick up "Amsterdam," "Rutte" and "campaign."

[MAINEiac4434]

Where is it live?

I'm watching on Youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vs7s3QwCh3Q

Don't understand a word they are saying, but thanks!

I occasionally pick up "Amsterdam," "Rutte" and "campaign."

Geert Wilders, IPSOS and PVV is also easy to pick out.

PvdA and D66 too.

[MAINEiac4434]

INDEPENDENTS WINNING ALL 150 SEATS

[MAINEiac4434]

Wow, must be disappointing for PVV. Excited to see D66 even with CDA and PVV and happy to see GL up there.

[MAINEiac4434]

If the exit poll is accurate, a centrist coalition of VVD+CDA+D66+PvdA is possible.

[MAINEiac4434]

Nos talking to sad PvdA people.

If the exit poll is accurate, a centrist coalition of VVD+CDA+D66+PvdA is possible.

I honestly think if they go under 10 they will take a step back, they need to to salvage what is left of their party.

Historically parties that lose a lot of seats give up government positions and parties that gain seats have priority. It used to be an unwritten rule until Wilders came along.

Perhaps. I feel like the right-leaning parties would have to make more concession to Klaver than Asscher, though.

[MAINEiac4434]

So the PvdA lost a humongous three quarters of their seats and the SP still didn't manage to profit from that?? Talk about Epic Fail!

Most of the PvdA vote has appeared to have gone to GL and D66. SP is much further to the left than GL and PvdA.

[MAINEiac4434]

Klaas Dijkhof looks like he just came off a bender.

[MAINEiac4434]

PvdA on 6%. Jesus.

[MAINEiac4434]

PvdA: centre left: social democrats

Though rather enraged their electorate by not exactly being like this in government this time round, thus this result...

And hence the rise of GL.

[MAINEiac4434]

First results are in.

2 islands in the north.

WOW!! the PvdA went from 30.1% to 8.9% in these 2 islands!!

They lost 10 points in Rozendaal too.

[MAINEiac4434]

Ipsos exit poll 18-24 year old:

18% D66
17% VVD
17% GL
12% PVV
12% CDA
  5% SP

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/842163251676893185

The kids are alright.

[MAINEiac4434]

Does PvdA even exist anymore?

[MAINEiac4434]

PVV seems to get a 20th seat while GL is down to 14. A little unfortunate, but won't change much in the grand scheme of things.

Disappointing. I was liking that PVV was on equal power with D66 and CDA.

[MAINEiac4434]

surely disappointing if you wish for a leftish influence in politics - like i do - but this could have played out even worse and it was, kind of, the worst possible scenario for the general european left.

DENK/Wilders/party-splitting are all weakening a singular influence....surely going to be better the next time and since there are going to be, most likely, neither leftish nor crypto-culturalist fingerprints on the agenda of the next government, the time for healing is now.

No, I'm ecstatic that Wilders has been told "BTFO" by the Dutch electorate. Klaver's going to be in a golden position in the next election.

[MAINEiac4434]

surely disappointing if you wish for a leftish influence in politics - like i do - but this could have played out even worse and it was, kind of, the worst possible scenario for the general european left.

DENK/Wilders/party-splitting are all weakening a singular influence....surely going to be better the next time and since there are going to be, most likely, neither leftish nor crypto-culturalist fingerprints on the agenda of the next government, the time for healing is now.

No, I'm ecstatic that Wilders has been told "BTFO" by the Dutch electorate. Klaver's going to be in a golden position in the next election.

Did you support D66, and why for a party so right-wing economically?

Judging by the polls, best chance for a non-VVD, CDA or PVV largest party and Prime Minister.

[MAINEiac4434]

surely disappointing if you wish for a leftish influence in politics - like i do - but this could have played out even worse and it was, kind of, the worst possible scenario for the general european left.

DENK/Wilders/party-splitting are all weakening a singular influence....surely going to be better the next time and since there are going to be, most likely, neither leftish nor crypto-culturalist fingerprints on the agenda of the next government, the time for healing is now.

No, I'm ecstatic that Wilders has been told "BTFO" by the Dutch electorate. Klaver's going to be in a golden position in the next election.

Did you support D66, and why for a party so right-wing economically?

Judging by the polls, best chance for a non-VVD, CDA or PVV largest party and Prime Minister.

Still don't understand, when it's decided by coalitions.

My thinking was the best chance for a center-left coalition was one led by D66. Maybe the GL wouldn't have wanted to work with D66, like they don't want to work with VVD. I guess we'll never know.

The D66 consistently polled above GL (though occasionally the GL leapfrogged them, but those were outliers). I figured GL, SP and PvdA would've been more willing to work with a socially progressive, albeit fiscally center-to-right party than a totally conservative party like VVD or CDA (and the PVV wasn't even a question, of course).