Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Diouf]

Average of polls from http://www.quirksmode.org/politics/polls.html

Results shown in number of seats (compared to 2012 election, compared to 2012 election poll minus tactical voting)

VVD 26 (-15, -8)
PVV 22 (+7, +4)
SP 21 (+6, -2)
CDA 20 (+7, +5)
D66 20 (+8, +6)
PvdA 11 (-27, -15)
GL 10 (+6, +5)
CU 6 (+1, =)
PvdD 5 (+3, +2)
SGP 4 (+1, +1)
50Plus 4 (+2, +1)
VNL 1 (+1, +1)

VNL (VoorNederland) is a new party created by ex-PVV members. They want to return to what PVV was originally; i.e. liberal in the economic policies, whereas PVV has moved to become much more left wing in its economic policies. They are allied with UKIP in Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe.

I guess the PvdA would like the government to finish its term in order to postpone what looks like a horrible result for as long as possible. Whether that's politically possible in a situation where most of the political programme has been carried out, and where building senate majorities is difficult is another question.
The polls currently suggest a messy result where at least four parties would be needed to form a majority; perhaps a return of the Kunduz (VVD, CDA, D66, CU, GL) in some form. The PVV has isolated itself, the PvdA probably needs some time outside government, and I'm not sure enough parties will cooperate with SP, but I think the remaining parties can be combined in almost any thinkable way.

[Diouf]

In the polling average, VVD is closer to PVV than they have been for a long time. Although, I guess that will not really matter for anything else than optics, but it also means that the difference between VVD and the other potential government parties has increased somewhat, making it even more likely that Rutte can continue as PM.

Quirksmode polling average:

PVV 27 seats
VVD 26
CDA 17
D66 16
SP 15
GL 13
PvdA 11
50 Plus 9
CU 7
PvdD 4
SGP 3
DENK 1
VNL 1

http://www.quirksmode.org/politics/polls.html

[Diouf]

I think the Danish system manages to combine proportionality and a local connection in a very good way without getting the two-tier system of MPs in a Mixed Member system. Furthermore, the open list system, which all but one party uses, means that all MPs will have a personal mandate from the electorate, and not just due to their position high on a party list. I believe it is quite rare in the current Dutch system that lowly ranked candidates get enough preferences to jump up the list. Additionally, the system is very simple for voters as they only have to vote once and choose their preferred candidate.

The Danish system in short: The country is divided into multi-member constituencies with 10-20 seats depending on size and population. 75% of the seats are divided proportionally between parties in each constituency, the remaining 25% are distributed among eligible parties (won 2% nationwide, or won one of the first 75% seats) to ensure a nationwide proportionality. These seats are then distributed between each party's candidates in the constituencies based on personal votes.


I don't think that oft-occuring grand coalitions is a flaw of a democratic system. Eg. in Germany a grand coalition is consistently the most preferred coalition among the voters, so I would hardly consider it any democratic flaw if that becomes the outcome again. If the electorate do consider it a significant problem, then they will vote for the anti-establishment parties in an ever increasing way, which will eventually lead to them being a part of governing in one way or another.

Therefore, I also don't agree with the fact that establishment vs. anti-establishment is a "wrong kind" of policy competition compared to the traditional way of e.g. social democrat vs conservative. Issues like immigration, law and order, EU have taken on a larger and larger importance among voters, and on these issues the policy competition between anti-establishment and establishment is very significant. The anti-establishment parties have clear policy alternatives on these issues, that they could put in place as a government a la Trump. These very real policy differences also means that I'm not really sure that the establishment vs. anti-establishment battle will erode the legitimacy of the system. I don't have long term statistical material, but in a lot of elections recently, the presence of a large anti-establishment anti-immigrant party has raised turnout.

[Diouf]

Votematch 2017 was launched at noon. Since it doesn't appear to be available in English, I translated the statements.

Enjoy!

Got VVD 67%, CDA 60%, Pirates 50%

Lowest GL 23%, NonVoters 23%, GeenPeil 23%

Pretty much as expected. Had a bit of doubt about the mortgage deduction. Is it correctly understood that an agree to that question would mean that the tax deduction is not reduced, i.e. benefitting wealthy property owners who can get bigger tax deductions due to expensive mortgage interests?

[Diouf]

According to Ipsos, Many more voters have already decided on their choice compared to this point in 2012. Almost twice as many voters have a strong preference for one party 4 weeks before the election. Around a third has a preference for one party, but still gives other parties a chance to convince them. Only 22% (11+11) have only a light preference or no preference at all, compared to 38% (22+16) at this point in 2012. This suggests that there won't be as big changes in the last weeks as in 2012. I can't see that Ipsos has yet released numbers for all parties, but they write that PVV voters are most locked in (66%), while GL voters are the least locked in (35%).

[Diouf]

Ipsos ten most important net voter movements since 2012.

PvdA > GL 6.8 seats
PvdA > non-voters 6.4 seats
VVD > PVV 5.2 seats
PvdA > D66 3.0 seats
non-voters > PVV 2.6 seats
VVD > CDA 2.6 seats
PvdA > 50Plus 2.4 seats
PvdA > PVV 2.2 seats
VVD > non-voters 2.2 seats
PvdA > SP 2.0 seats

[Diouf]

Ipsos preferred coalitions from a late February poll:



As fragmented as the general party picture. The pure centre-right/centre-left coalitions are the most popular with 14% each, but neither looks likely to get a majority. Many choose one of the many centrist options, but there are no clear preferences between the three VVD-led centrist coalitions, although the CDA-less one is a bit less popular (and not that realistic). 21% choose one of the two VVD-CDA-D66 options, which I believe looks the most likely outcome currently. The question is whether the party/parties backing such a coalition, whoever they will be, will take actively part in it or stand outside to avoid being squeezed. The latter option sounds like the best option for the party/parties, but the prospect of government can be alluring. Also they could use the defence of "creating stability" or making sure that the government will not consider deals on some issues with PVV.

[Diouf]

I agree that it is quite unlikely that CDA and VVD will enter into a coalition cooperation with PVV again after the debacle last time. I just figured with all the attention around Wilders and possibly PVV as the biggest party, one of the left-wing parties might use the defence of "locking out Wilders" for entering a government with the right. Even though PVV will probably be locked out anyway. But I fully agree that it would be a bad idea electorally for them to join such a right-wing government.

[Diouf]

Peter-Paul Koch's average on quirksmode, including today's five polls.

VVD 27
PVV 22
CDA 21
D66 17
GL 16
SP 15
PvdA 10
CU 6
50Plus 5
PvdD 4
SGP 3
DENK 2
FvD 2

http://www.quirksmode.org/politics/polls.html

[Diouf]

Get yourself someone who looks at you the way the polling assistants looks at Klaver casting his vote in den Haag.

[Diouf]

NOS Youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vs7s3QwCh3Q

[Diouf]

All parties gets 0 seats according to the graph, lol

[Diouf]

PVV almost doubling in the first two very small polling places.

[Diouf]

  I just read about the Fvd.  Did they attract some former PVV voters? Also, would they be considered viable coalition partners if they had won more seats?  I like how national direct democracy is a key plank of theirs, though I believe D66 is for that too and it doesn't seem as if they've achieved much in spite of being in government over the years.

The Times readers are particularly eager to know what the kingmaker will do now...

[Diouf]

Are results only reported when the whole municipality is counted or can individual polling place results be seen anywhere?

[Diouf]

PVV biggest in Simpelveld, but small progress from 20,8 to 22,6. PvdA drop from 25,3 to 4,3%. Still very early, but it almost seems like PvdA could do even worse than the exit poll

[Diouf]

Wilders does not conquer the Cauberg hill* in Valkenburg either. Again a small progress. VVD stays the biggest party despite losing 6%


*Famous from Amstel Gold Race

[Diouf]

This is odd. NOS vote share is different from what Europe Elects twitter is reporting.

NOS has:

17.6% VVD
14.3% D66
13.1% GL
10.1% PVV
10.0% CDA

Europe Elects has:

22.4% VVD
13.2% GL
12.2% PVV
11.9% D66
11.3% CDA

Which one is correct?

NOS is prognosis based on the counted votes, EuropeElects are just the counted votes

[Diouf]

And I guess if, as the prognosis shows, CDA will be so clearly in second, it will not look crazy weird if they at least try to pursue a centre-left coalition with Buma as PM. The ball is mostly in CDA's half in terms of which coalition we end up with. Probably still more likely to back Rutte, but not set in stone.

[Diouf]

This is odd. NOS vote share is different from what Europe Elects twitter is reporting.

NOS has:

17.6% VVD
14.3% D66
13.1% GL
10.1% PVV
10.0% CDA

Europe Elects has:

22.4% VVD
13.2% GL
12.2% PVV
11.9% D66
11.3% CDA

Which one is correct?

NOS is prognosis based on the counted votes, EuropeElects are just the counted votes

Wait if this is prognosis why is seats prognosis so different?
PVV 11.3 (20 seats)
D66 12.8 (17 seats )

It did look weird at some point, but now it looks okay again. And the numbers on the red bars matches the numbers from the new prognosis NOS just made. CDA down to earth again, "only" a narrow 2nd.

[Diouf]

totally depends on what your short-term priorities are as "lefties".....immigration rights are atm not my nr1 issue as long as we are literally still handling a few million immigrants from 2015....if we have "swallowed" that challenge we can talk again.

the primary goal of the far right during the last years has been destroying the EU, which seemed quite likely after brexit...one year later, this ambition has been crushed in Austria, in the Netherlands and - most likely - soon also in France.

It makes you wonder: what would the reception be to a eurofederalist party that was also very anti-migration and sceptical of Islam? Not that I'd support such a venture, but it could be interesting.

Well, if it is to be anti-migration, then it would have to be purely non-western migration it opposed for it to be logically coherent with EU-membership. I don't know if there would be much room for a committed eurofederalist party with these views, but it is a fairly standard centre-right position now to be broadly pro-EU, in favour of freedom of movement and the common market, as well as critical of Islam and wanting to tighten rules for non-western migrants. If the EU can reach agreement on an Australian-style system where you can't seek asylum from the EU area, I guess that is a eurofederalist step, but the parties in favour will mostly not brand it like that. Until that happens, the pro-EU parties will mostly try to tighten non-western migration within international rules, which limits how much you will be able to reduce it and therefore also to some degree the electoral effect.

[Diouf]

Was on exchange in Maastricht a few years ago. The place where I lived is right between a typical student place with D66, GL and VVD top and a typical Limburg middle/working class place with many similar, smallish 1/2-level houses with PVV, VVD, CDA top.

[Diouf]

So the ball is basically in Pechtold's half now. Does he play the responsible centrist and agree to a coalition with VVD, CDA and the small Christian parties in some way, which will very likely end up in a significant loss of left-liberal voters. Or do they refuse to take part in such majorities, which makes coalition building almost impossible (and probably new elections?)

If it does become VVD-CDS-D66 minority, how much leeway do you think it would get? Would it only be supported by the Christian parties, whom will require most policy to be agreed with them. Or could it get supported by more parties in the name of stability? The latter option would also then allow the government more flexibility in different policy areas, e.g. migration & economy with centre-right, climate & education with centre-left.

[Diouf]

So we are more or less at certain minority government now, right? Even if VVD and CDA prefer majority government, stable leadership blah blah, it seems like a waste of time to pursue further majority government negotiations. Their job now should be to get the broadest possible support for such a minority government.

[Diouf]

How many parties would accept such a minority government? I guess PVV and GL will try to position themselves as opposition leaders on either side of the government. The SP would not support such a shamelessly capitalist government. So my guess would be PvdA, CU and SGP. Do you think any of the other small parties would accept it, perhaps 50PLUS?