Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[windjammer]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

[windjammer]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

Where is he going to find 76 seats?

his party + VVD might have 63 seats according to the polls lol.

[windjammer]

What is exactly the CDA?

[windjammer]

Lmao this poll makes no sense

[windjammer]

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

Would mean the political death of D66 lol

[windjammer]

so...this guy is trying to out-culturalist wilders? not sure there is such a big constituency for that message, as long as wilders isn't going down in flames.

It's a party that has as an electoral base far-rightwinger college edicated. Not a chance they gain momentum.

[windjammer]

If CDA ends up first, they should make a coalition with VVD, PVV, 50+ and SGP (it has the majority of seats). I suppose that some "deceived" PVV and 50+ would vote for them for the next election, consolidating their place as first party.

[windjammer]

If CDA ends up first, they should make a coalition with VVD, PVV, 50+ and SGP (it has the majority of seats). I suppose that some "deceived" PVV and 50+ would vote for them for the next election, consolidating their place as first party.

That's not going to happen and if CDA does decide to do it, the next election would be a total disaster for CDA, like the 2012 election.

It was a total disaster for the CDA because they were the minor coalition partner, it would have been totally different if they were the leading coalition party.

And yes of course that won't happen, they should though

[windjammer]

If CDA ends up first, they should make a coalition with VVD, PVV, 50+ and SGP (it has the majority of seats). I suppose that some "deceived" PVV and 50+ would vote for them for the next election, consolidating their place as first party.

That's not going to happen and if CDA does decide to do it, the next election would be a total disaster for CDA, like the 2012 election.

It was a total disaster for the CDA because they were the minor coalition partner, it would have been totally different if they were the leading coalition party.

And yes of course that won't happen, they should though

Why should the CDA ally with a man who double crossed them last time they worked together?

Because they would get additional votes this time as the major coalition partner?

[windjammer]

My prediction: PVV will get 76 seats

[windjammer]

I don't think anyone can really make any prediction based on turnout. Remember High turnout in dem areas for the pres election?

[windjammer]

seems like europe is winning this night.

I would say corrupt oligarchs

[windjammer]

Quite a counterperformance for a party that literally was polling in the high 30 seats fe months ago

[windjammer]

The dismal result for the PVV will be a major blow to Marine LePen. She was counting on building on momentum from her Dutch ally

No one is going to vote in France based on the dutch general election results lol

[windjammer]

This is what happens everytime a social democrat party betrays its nase for muh third way non sense.

Good riddance!

[windjammer]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Regarding your point on PVV, they blew a 40 seats result and instead got only 20. How can you say that this is a good result for them. They massively underperformed the polls.
In every country the far right is rising, with the Netherlands having partiesry with strong far right parties (Fortuin etc), the fact they massively underpolled the polls should be worrying for them.

[windjammer]

Any exit polls by age

[windjammer]

VVD+CDA (traditional right-wing parties*)
1989: 66
1994: 65
1998: 67
2002: 67
2003: 72
2006: 63
2010: 52
2012: 54
2017: 52

CDA+VVD+PVV+LPF+FvD (traditional right + radical right)
1989: 66
1994: 65 (but 3 seats for extreme right CD, which is a different category imo)
1998: 67 (no radical right)
2002: 94 (LPF surge)
2003: 72 (LPF collapse)
2006: 72 (LPF gone, PVV in)
2010: 76
2012: 69
2017: 74

PvdA+GL+SP+PvdD (combined left)
1989: 55
1994: 44
1998: 71
2002: 42
2003: 59
2006: 67
2010: 57
2012: 59
2017: 42

PvdA+GL+SP+PvdD+D66 (progressive/left)
1989: 67
1994: 68
1998: 75
2002: 49
2003: 65
2006: 70
2010: 67
2012: 71
2017: 61

The right isn't necessarily bigger -- but the left and progressives are definitely smaller.

*traditionally, the CDA cannot really be seen as a right-wing party (the Netherlands doesn't do the "non-socialist = right-wing" thing) and while this is irrelevant to the point, I still wanted to mention this. It used to be a centrist party, but it has moved to the right under Lubbers, under Balkenende and most certainly under Buma.

Could you make something total left/total right in order to have something like 150 sears in the end please? (for 50+ I suppose you should divide in two right? )