Florida 2016 Congressional Elections

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Randy Perkins is in for FL-18.

[Kingpoleon]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Melissa McKinley ends her campaign with Randy Perkins announcement.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With the new map largely finalized, Sabato has issued the following rating changes:

FL-2 ---> Safe D to Safe R
FL-7 ---> Safe R to Likely R
FL-10 ---> Safe R to Safe D (apparently Webster is going to run for the 11th (which is open due to Nugent's retirement) instead)
FL-13 ---> Toss-Up to Likely D

FL-9 has gone from Obama 61-38 to Obama 56-43 and is open due to Grayson's Senate run. It stays at Safe D for now but could flip with the right R nominee.

FL-26 stays at Toss-Up despite going from Obama 53-46 to Obama 55-44.

FL-18 is (effectively) unchanged and remains at Toss-Up.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2016-finally-a-new-map-in-florida/

[Sir Mohamed]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

[Nyvin]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

Maybe she will. But there is of course, the question of what she will do in 2016. Her house district is 65% Romney under the new lines, so she might decide to mount a late bid for the Senate. And yes, I think she would have a reasonable chance of winning the primary and general.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

As of yesterday, Graham's career is pretty much over.

[Nyvin]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

As of yesterday, Graham's career is pretty much over.

Absolutely not.   She's a fantastic candidate if you look into it.    Also very well known.    She's a perfect fit for a statewide run.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

As of yesterday, Graham's career is pretty much over.

Absolutely not.   She's a fantastic candidate if you look into it.    Also very well known.    She's a perfect fit for a statewide run.

I'm sure that Rubio runs if the doesn't win the GOP nomination or the presidency.

[Nyvin]

Andrew Gillum might be challenging Corrinne Brown in FL-5 in the Dem primary.....please please please let it be true!!!    Get rid of her ASAP!

[Dereich]

Andrew Gillum might be challenging Corrinne Brown in FL-5 in the Dem primary.....please please please let it be true!!!    Get rid of her ASAP!

Don't get your hopes up. As long as that seat is primarily Jacksonville based she'll win easily. I think former Jacksonville mayor Brown could beat her, but that might be wishful thinking.

[Miles]

^ Actually, according to Matt Isbell, only 37% of the vote comes from Jacksonville, with 53% from the Tallahassee area.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Jolly calls for Trump to leave the race over his comments. I wonder how this affects his chances in the primary?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

As of yesterday, Graham's career is pretty much over.

Absolutely not.   She's a fantastic candidate if you look into it.    Also very well known.    She's a perfect fit for a statewide run.

Why vote for Graham when you can vote for the younger, more experienced Murphy. If Graham runs, Grayson is the nominee and the 'Pubs wipe the FL-Dems off the map. The new district makes Graham's reelection prospects harder. Her career is over.

[Nyvin]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

As of yesterday, Graham's career is pretty much over.

Absolutely not.   She's a fantastic candidate if you look into it.    Also very well known.    She's a perfect fit for a statewide run.

Why vote for Graham when you can vote for the younger, more experienced Murphy. If Graham runs, Grayson is the nominee and the 'Pubs wipe the FL-Dems off the map. The new district makes Graham's reelection prospects harder. Her career is over.

Of course she's not going to run in 2016 for Senate against Murphy,  that'd be dumb.    The idea is to get her to run in 2018 for Governor.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

As of yesterday, Graham's career is pretty much over.

Absolutely not.   She's a fantastic candidate if you look into it.    Also very well known.    She's a perfect fit for a statewide run.

Why vote for Graham when you can vote for the younger, more experienced Murphy. If Graham runs, Grayson is the nominee and the 'Pubs wipe the FL-Dems off the map. The new district makes Graham's reelection prospects harder. Her career is over.

Of course she's not going to run in 2016 for Senate against Murphy,  that'd be dumb.    The idea is to get her to run in 2018 for Governor.

...after she gets destroyed in 2016? That'd basically be like Allen West running for Governor. If she can't win reelection, how are people going to take her gubernatorial bid seriously? Her "career' is over, and thank God, because she is highly overrated.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

As of yesterday, Graham's career is pretty much over.

Absolutely not.   She's a fantastic candidate if you look into it.    Also very well known.    She's a perfect fit for a statewide run.

Why vote for Graham when you can vote for the younger, more experienced Murphy. If Graham runs, Grayson is the nominee and the 'Pubs wipe the FL-Dems off the map. The new district makes Graham's reelection prospects harder. Her career is over.

Of course she's not going to run in 2016 for Senate against Murphy,  that'd be dumb.    The idea is to get her to run in 2018 for Governor.

...after she gets destroyed in 2016? That'd basically be like Allen West running for Governor. If she can't win reelection, how are people going to take her gubernatorial bid seriously? Her "career' is over, and thank God, because she is highly overrated.

The obvious thing to do, assuming she wants to run for governor, is to retire, not attempt to get reelected. Coming up with some excuse to do so is far less harmful to one's career than losing reelection 60-40 or thereabouts.

[Nyvin]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

As of yesterday, Graham's career is pretty much over.

Absolutely not.   She's a fantastic candidate if you look into it.    Also very well known.    She's a perfect fit for a statewide run.

Why vote for Graham when you can vote for the younger, more experienced Murphy. If Graham runs, Grayson is the nominee and the 'Pubs wipe the FL-Dems off the map. The new district makes Graham's reelection prospects harder. Her career is over.

Of course she's not going to run in 2016 for Senate against Murphy,  that'd be dumb.    The idea is to get her to run in 2018 for Governor.

...after she gets destroyed in 2016? That'd basically be like Allen West running for Governor. If she can't win reelection, how are people going to take her gubernatorial bid seriously? Her "career' is over, and thank God, because she is highly overrated.

Retiring from a district after your base gets ripped out won't look bad on her,   it's literally impossible for her to win in the changed FL-2 and anyone can see that.  

A nearly identical situation is playing out with Jim Matheson in Utah...his district was drawn more conservatively and he retired from his seat in 2014,  now most are thinking he's planning on running either for Governor or Senate in 2018.    Charlie Crist lost multiple times too, he's still running in FL-13 next year.

btw- It would be nothing like Allen West running for gov....she matches the statewide vote MUCH better than West ever would.

[JMT]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

As of yesterday, Graham's career is pretty much over.

Absolutely not.   She's a fantastic candidate if you look into it.    Also very well known.    She's a perfect fit for a statewide run.

Why vote for Graham when you can vote for the younger, more experienced Murphy. If Graham runs, Grayson is the nominee and the 'Pubs wipe the FL-Dems off the map. The new district makes Graham's reelection prospects harder. Her career is over.

Of course she's not going to run in 2016 for Senate against Murphy,  that'd be dumb.    The idea is to get her to run in 2018 for Governor.

...after she gets destroyed in 2016? That'd basically be like Allen West running for Governor. If she can't win reelection, how are people going to take her gubernatorial bid seriously? Her "career' is over, and thank God, because she is highly overrated.

Retiring from a district after your base gets ripped out won't look bad on her,   it's literally impossible for her to win in the changed FL-2 and anyone can see that.  

A nearly identical situation is playing out with Jim Matheson in Utah...his district was drawn more conservatively and he retired from his seat in 2014,  now most are thinking he's planning on running either for Governor or Senate in 2018.    Charlie Crist lost multiple times too, he's still running in FL-13 next year.

btw- It would be nothing like Allen West running for gov....she matches the statewide vote MUCH better than West ever would.

I agree with this. People see she can't win here, so it won't make her look bad. Plus, assuming she wants to run for governor in 2018, she could say something like: "I am looking at the possibility of running for governor in 2018 (maybe even form an exploratory committee or something), and I feel that it would be unfair to my constituents to run for reelection and serve in office knowing that I am contemplating running for a different office. So I will serve out the rest of my term but won't seek reelection in 2016". i could see something like that happening. Makes her look good, and she avoids getting defeated in 2016. 

[publicunofficial]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

As of yesterday, Graham's career is pretty much over.

Absolutely not.   She's a fantastic candidate if you look into it.    Also very well known.    She's a perfect fit for a statewide run.

Why vote for Graham when you can vote for the younger, more experienced Murphy. If Graham runs, Grayson is the nominee and the 'Pubs wipe the FL-Dems off the map. The new district makes Graham's reelection prospects harder. Her career is over.

Of course she's not going to run in 2016 for Senate against Murphy,  that'd be dumb.    The idea is to get her to run in 2018 for Governor.

...after she gets destroyed in 2016? That'd basically be like Allen West running for Governor. If she can't win reelection, how are people going to take her gubernatorial bid seriously? Her "career' is over, and thank God, because she is highly overrated.

If she plans on running for Governor, she probably will just retire from the House in 2016 rather than waste resources in a race she isn't favored in.

Also you cannot seriously think the reason Allen West would be a bad statewide candidate is because he lost in 2012. Regardless of your opinions on Graham, putting her and West in the same category is insane.

[Gass3268]

Advisor for Corrine Brown says the Congressowman will be moving to Orlando to run in FL-10

[ElectionsGuy]

Advisor for Corrine Brown says the Congressowman will be moving to Orlando to run in FL-10

Godsend for Graham.

[Miles]

^ That suggests a Gary Peters situation: Graham gets the black majority seat with the understanding that she'll move on after one term.

[publicunofficial]

Hopefully Val Demmings crushes Brown, and Graham takes FL-05. Gets rid of one bad representative in exchange for 2 excellent ones.