Florida 2016 Congressional Elections

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Crist will probably be a green or libertarian eventually. The guy is more of a flip-flopper than Romney, does not have a firm conviction on any issue, and deserves to lose in a landslide next year.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Due to the Jolly retirement, Sabato moves FL-13 from Likely R to Toss-Up (ratings are based on current district lines until the new map is finalized)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With the new map largely finalized, Sabato has issued the following rating changes:

FL-2 ---> Safe D to Safe R
FL-7 ---> Safe R to Likely R
FL-10 ---> Safe R to Safe D (apparently Webster is going to run for the 11th (which is open due to Nugent's retirement) instead)
FL-13 ---> Toss-Up to Likely D

FL-9 has gone from Obama 61-38 to Obama 56-43 and is open due to Grayson's Senate run. It stays at Safe D for now but could flip with the right R nominee.

FL-26 stays at Toss-Up despite going from Obama 53-46 to Obama 55-44.

FL-18 is (effectively) unchanged and remains at Toss-Up.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2016-finally-a-new-map-in-florida/

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

Maybe she will. But there is of course, the question of what she will do in 2016. Her house district is 65% Romney under the new lines, so she might decide to mount a late bid for the Senate. And yes, I think she would have a reasonable chance of winning the primary and general.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Crist is willing to stay in the House for six years and run for Governor/Senator in 2022, I don't mind. I do mind a one-term Congressman immediately running for something he lost four years prior to that.

I think he wants to use the House as a stepping stone back to the governor's chair to prove that he can still win elections. He will try to enter governor's mansion in 2018 again (and probaly lose).

I hope Gwen Graham runs for gov and beats him in the primary.    She's such a better candidate in almost every possible way.

As of yesterday, Graham's career is pretty much over.

Absolutely not.   She's a fantastic candidate if you look into it.    Also very well known.    She's a perfect fit for a statewide run.

Why vote for Graham when you can vote for the younger, more experienced Murphy. If Graham runs, Grayson is the nominee and the 'Pubs wipe the FL-Dems off the map. The new district makes Graham's reelection prospects harder. Her career is over.

Of course she's not going to run in 2016 for Senate against Murphy,  that'd be dumb.    The idea is to get her to run in 2018 for Governor.

...after she gets destroyed in 2016? That'd basically be like Allen West running for Governor. If she can't win reelection, how are people going to take her gubernatorial bid seriously? Her "career' is over, and thank God, because she is highly overrated.

The obvious thing to do, assuming she wants to run for governor, is to retire, not attempt to get reelected. Coming up with some excuse to do so is far less harmful to one's career than losing reelection 60-40 or thereabouts.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The move doesn't even make sense. Brown probably would've beat Graham.

There must be something else going on behind the scenes.

Brown's federal lawsuit against the new FL-5 says it is literally impossible for a black candidate to win a primary there. Ridiculous, as it is 45% bvap (the old district was 49% bvap) and there's no reason she couldn't get support from some white dems. But that's what she's going around believing.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hopefully Val Demmings crushes Brown, and Graham takes FL-05. Gets rid of one bad representative in exchange for 2 excellent ones.

If Brown wins the primary, she might well lose to a Pub. Some Pub should file for the race with some credentials, as standby equipment just in case.

Corrine Brown's lawsuit is going nowhere. If she thought it was, why wouldn't she run in FL-05? That lawsuit might backfire on her in any event, because I agree with her that FL-05 is probably illegal, but not because it is too white, but rather because it is too black. It's a racial gerrymander with no partisan justification. If I were the judge, I would require that Leon County not be chopped the way it was. That was done solely for racial reasons, and has no other justification.

FL-5 is fulfilling a requirement for a minority opportunity district - a district that, while not majority black, still gives blacks a (fairly) decisive impact on the election. Sure, you could probably make it a few less % bvap, but beyond that, you'd need authorization  from a federal court or congress - the FL SCOTUS can't violate/change federal law.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Its not clear what she's running for, but Gwen Graham raised more than $2M in 2015 and has $1.7M on hand.

She's said she won't run against C. Brown. It seems like she's just going to hope for the best in the redrawn (62% Romney) FL-2.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Graham is actually elected to the redrawn FL-2, it is going to be such an odd result. Democrats didn't win any seat over 60% Romney in 2012, except for the Matheson seat, which is misleading because Romney had a massive over performance there due to his mormonism.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here's a recent article on Graham. Apparently she's waiting out an appeals court decision on the new congressional lines and may elect to run statewide. (Florida's filing deadline is May 6)

http://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2016/04/05/gwen-graham-considering-options/82667166/