Hillary vs Bush vs Trump

[Thunderbird is the word]

What would a three way race with Trump running as an independent and getting Ross Perot numbers look like?

[Crumpets]

A 46-30-20 split would look like this:

Switch Kansas for North Dakota and Mississippi for Arkansas, and I think that's pretty close. That being said, I think a Trump (I) candidacy would look much more like Buchanan than Perot.

[dudeabides]

Hillary Clinton (D) 40% 269 EV
Jeb Bush (R) 35% 235 EV
Donald Trump (I) 24% 34 EV

[ag]

Hillary Clinton (D) 40% 269 EV
Jeb Bush (R) 35% 235 EV
Donald Trump (I) 24% 34 EV

But you may need to do some ethnic cleansing in Detroit and Cleveland first.

[Krago]

If Trump won 24% nationally, wouldn't he do better than that in Arizona, pushing Jeb to third place and flipping the state to Hillary?

[YPestis25]

A new poll out today had Clinton at 46%, Bush at 30%, and Trump at 20%, in the event of a three way race.

[Kingpoleon]

I'd like to see Sanders run if this happens.

Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Mark Warner (D-WV) - 43.2% - 269 EVs

Jeb Bush (R-FL)/Brian Sandoval (R-NV) - 43.1% - 269 EVs

Bernie Sanders (Green-VT)/Dennis Kuchinich (Green-OH) - 6.1% - 0 EVs

Donald Trump (Reform-NY)/Jesse Ventura (Reform-MN) - 6.0% - 0 EVs


Others: 1.5%

Rocky Anderson(Justice-Utah)/Jill Stein(Justice-Massachusetts) - 0.6% - 0 EVs

Rand Paul(Libertarian-Kentucky)/Gary Johnson(Libertarian-New Mexico) - 0.6% - 0 EVs

Robert Barr(C-GA)/Virgil Goode(C-VA) - 0.2% - 0 EVs

[Leinad]

No, Rand isn't running as a Libertarian. Literally zero chance of that happening. And Sanders probably isn't running either, and if he did, it wouldn't simply be to counterbalance Trump.

Regarding Trump: if he runs a third-party campaign and gets good numbers (10%+), Hillary's the president. Most of the voters Trump will get will be stolen from Republicans (combined with right-leaning voters who probably weren't going to vote for either main party, but still, it would take away far more Republicans than Democrats), so every swing state would surely be a win for the Democrats.

Hillary Clinton (D) 40% 269 EV
Jeb Bush (R) 35% 235 EV
Donald Trump (I) 24% 34 EV

Not sure about that. If Trump gets enough votes to win any state, he'll split the vote in most others and Clinton would win places like Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, Montana, NE-2, et cetera.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

If Hillary gets about 50%, the Republican gets about 30%, and Trump gets about 20%, this is my guess (no percentages). South Carolina might not even stay Atlas Blue. Trump would probably beat the Republican in many states that Hillary wins. A county map would be fascinating to see.

487-46-5

[Sir Mohamed]

Hillary Clinton (D) 40% 269 EV
Jeb Bush (R) 35% 235 EV
Donald Trump (I) 24% 34 EV

The Democrats would win more than 40% in this scenario.

[heatmaster]

Think the Democrat trolls are overdoing it with the kool-aid, Hillary is winning in a landslide is really overdoing it in the unrealistic stakes.  I  think the climate is ripe for a solid Bush victory, certainly not landslide territory, but respectable enough☺

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Think the Democrat trolls are overdoing it with the kool-aid, Hillary is winning in a landslide is really overdoing it in the unrealistic stakes.  I  think the climate is ripe for a solid Bush victory, certainly not landslide territory, but respectable enough☺

I see the election as being something like 1912 or maybe 1992 (not nearly as much). Even though Wilson only got about 41% of the popular vote in 1912, he won 435 EVs because the Republican Party was so heavily split. I'm assuming that the polling that has Clinton in the mid 40's, Bush at 30ish, and Trump at 20ish holds true. A 15% lead means that a lot of states would go towards Hillary.

[Cory]

Hillary Clinton (D) 40% 269 EV
Jeb Bush (R) 35% 235 EV
Donald Trump (I) 24% 34 EV

Yeah, no.

A.) How does Hillary loose roughly 7-11% of her vote nationally because of Donald Trump?

B.) How does Jeb Bush take such a dramatic loss and still hold on to all of the Romney 2012 states plus Florida?

C.) How does Trump emerge with the most votes in Ohio and Michigan?

It's nonsense.

[The Mikado]

Honestly, I don't see Trump's support holding very strong. Something like Clinton 49, Bush 45, Trump+Other 6 strikes me as reasonable.

[dudeabides]

Four way race

Jeb Bush / Kelly Ayotte (R) 40% 274 EV
Hillary Clinton / Joaquin Castro (D) 32% 185 EV
Bernie Sanders / Dennis Kucinich (I) 19% 48 EV
Donald Trump / Sarah Palin (I) 8% 34 EV

[Mehmentum]

Assuming that 30% of Romney voters vote for Trump, and 10% of Obama 2012 voters vote for Trump.

Hillary Clinton: 46%, 414 EVs
Jeb Bush: 33%, 124 EVs
Donald Trump: 21%, 0 EVs

[Cory]

Four way race

Jeb Bush / Kelly Ayotte (R) 40% 274 EV
Hillary Clinton / Joaquin Castro (D) 32% 185 EV
Bernie Sanders / Dennis Kucinich (I) 19% 48 EV
Donald Trump / Sarah Palin (I) 8% 34 EV

There you go again. Jeb just always somehow wins no matter what.

Also the idea that Sanders would win upwards of 20% nationally with Trump only getting 8% seems silly. Why would Democrats spoil their chances to vote against someone they like while Republican don't do the same to vote for someone they don't like?

Also you never explained the flaws in your previous map.

[bobloblaw]

Trump would get some Dems votes just like Perot did. At least 33% of Perot's vote was from Clinton.

[Retrumplican]

A good place to start with this is to look where Perot did best in 1992.

States where Perot got more than 30%: ME

States where Perot got more than 25%: KS, MT, ID, WY, UT, NV

So it is a safe bet that Trump would win those states. However, that does not get us to 270. There isn't really enough data at this point to tell us, though, which states would come next in Trump's path to victory. So we need to wait for some more polling.

[ag]

A good place to start with this is to look where Perot did best in 1992.

States where Perot got more than 30%: ME

States where Perot got more than 25%: KS, MT, ID, WY, UT, NV

So it is a safe bet that Trump would win those states.

So, you are buying the Brooklyn Bridge from me - I guess, that is a safe bet as well.

[Cory]

Trump would get some Dems votes just like Perot did. At least 33% of Perot's vote was from Clinton.

A.) Is that so? Citation?

B.) Donald Trump's appeal is much more partisan than Perot's.

[NerdyBohemian]

Four way race

Jeb Bush / Kelly Ayotte (R) 40% 274 EV
Hillary Clinton / Joaquin Castro (D) 32% 185 EV
Bernie Sanders / Dennis Kucinich (I) 19% 48 EV
Donald Trump / Sarah Palin (I) 8% 34 EV

Rhode Island would never vote for Bernie Sanders over Hillary; she's a perfect fit for the type of Democrats popular in the state. Barack Obama barely cracked 40% in the 2008 primaries.

[Cory]

Rhode Island would never vote for Bernie Sanders over Hillary; she's a perfect fit for the type of Democrats popular in the state. Barack Obama barely cracked 40% in the 2008 primaries.

But, but , but...  Jeb has to win somehow.

[SteveRogers]

A good place to start with this is to look where Perot did best in 1992.

States where Perot got more than 30%: ME

States where Perot got more than 25%: KS, MT, ID, WY, UT, NV

So it is a safe bet that Trump would win those states. However, that does not get us to 270. There isn't really enough data at this point to tell us, though, which states would come next in Trump's path to victory. So we need to wait for some more polling.

We get it. You're troll persona shtick is that you're an unironic Trump hack. But you're supposed to ease into the trolling if you want to get people to take the bait. 

[Peeperkorn]

Best scenario for Clinton (Trump gets the white trash vote):