Hillary vs Bush vs Trump

[Cory]

We get it. You're troll persona shtick is that you're an unironic Trump hack. But you're supposed to ease into the trolling if you want to get people to take the bait. 

To be fair it's election season, so we get an influx of "temps" who are just here to put forward their favorite candidate.

[Retrumplican]

We get it. You're troll persona shtick is that you're an unironic Trump hack. But you're supposed to ease into the trolling if you want to get people to take the bait. 

I am not a troll any more than Donald Trump is. Trump is leading in the polls, picking up support from hard working, low information voters who like his anti-establishment message of truth and honesty. Donald Trump is a serious candidate for President, by virtue of the fact that he is winning. Donald Trump is the President America deserves.

[Peeperkorn]

Donald Trump is the President America deserves.

[pbrower2a]

Think the Democrat trolls are overdoing it with the kool-aid, Hillary is winning in a landslide is really overdoing it in the unrealistic stakes.  I  think the climate is ripe for a solid Bush victory, certainly not landslide territory, but respectable enough☺

Not really. The Republicans offer nothing new, and Democrats need only raise the specter of another economic meltdown like that of 2007-2009 to scare people who voted for Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2012. Nativism will turn off anyone not straight, white, Christian, and Anglo.  Democrats have been winning people whose theology and lifestyles are quite conservative.

Democrats will win a high-turnout election or one in which the Republicans are dispirited.

The Religious Right, the only growing constituency for the GOP in the last 40 years, is not growing anymore. 

[SteveRogers]

I am not a troll any more than Donald Trump is.

[RJEvans]

Hillary Clinton (D) 40% 269 EV
Jeb Bush (R) 35% 235 EV
Donald Trump (I) 24% 34 EV

But you may need to do some ethnic cleansing in Detroit and Cleveland first.

I think he already did. There is no way Bush and Trump together gets near 60% of the vote. It will be 52/53% tops.

[5280]

Slightly like 1992

[Crumpets]

Had some time, so I made a Clinton 46, Bush 30, Trump 20 map based on the 2012 results. On this map, Trump gets 72% of his support from Romney voters and 28% from Obama voters:

Clinton/Heinrich 46% 372 EV
Bush/Martinez 30% 117 EV
Trump/Ventura 20% 49 EV

This is based on a Trump vote distribution something like this:

30% - Well below average (~5%)
40% - Below average (~15%)
50% - Above average (~25%)
60% - Well above average (~35)

[Retrumplican]

This is based on a Trump vote distribution something like this:

30% - Well below average (~5%)
40% - Below average (~15%)
50% - Above average (~25%)
60% - Well above average (~35)

That is good, and interesting to see, but I think Trump's support would be a little bit more evenly spread nationally than you have it. For one thing, he won't do worse than nationally in Kansas (for example). I think he also has a good shot at winning West Virginia, for example. Appalachia loves him. He will also draw support in places like Iowa (remember Joni Ernst?). He will also draw at least some support from Dems, though most will come from Pubs. Also, in safe Dem states, Pubs will know that their vote doesn't matter anyway and they will be more willing to vote for Trump.

[ag]

We get it. You're troll persona shtick is that you're an unironic Trump hack. But you're supposed to ease into the trolling if you want to get people to take the bait. 

I am not a troll any more than Donald Trump is.

That is, pretty much, a confession.

[Retrumplican]

I am not a troll any more than Donald Trump is.

That is, pretty much, a confession.

Huh?

[Retrumplican]

We get it. You're troll persona shtick is that you're an unironic Trump hack. But you're supposed to ease into the trolling if you want to get people to take the bait.  

I am not a troll any more than Donald Trump is.

That is, pretty much, a confession.

Nice, can you deal with him now?

If you look through my posts and give them a fair hearing, I think you will find that they are at least as substantive as the average. Sure, some more than others. But I am trying to share considered thoughts, analysis, and arguments. Maybe from a perspective that you don't like.

[ag]

I am not a troll any more than Donald Trump is.

That is, pretty much, a confession.

Huh?

Well, you've pleaded guilty to the trolling charge in front of you. Case closed and filed.

[ag]

We get it. You're troll persona shtick is that you're an unironic Trump hack. But you're supposed to ease into the trolling if you want to get people to take the bait.  

I am not a troll any more than Donald Trump is.

That is, pretty much, a confession.

Nice, can you deal with him now?

 Maybe from a perspective that you don't like.

Rather, find hilariously funny.

[ag]

Donald Trump is the President America deserves.

America is a great country, which I admire and love. Do not say such cruelly dismissive things about it.

[ag]

Retrumplican is an obvious sock/troll who needs to be banned pronto. I hate to feed the troll, but his case requires quick action. 67 posts per day? Seriously? Stop this guy from derailing the 2016 board even more.

But he is trully funny. We can enjoy his chatter in the background without him derailing the rest of the conversation. It might not be as good as Steven Colbert in his prime, but it is a solid comedy effort.

[Retrumplican]

Retrumplican is an obvious sock/troll who needs to be banned pronto. I hate to feed the troll, but his case requires quick action. 67 posts per day? Seriously? Stop this guy from derailing the 2016 board even more.

OK, stepping out of character for a minute, I am a long time lurker (not on the 2016 forum, but mostly on the various election results ones and Political Geography and Demographics). Yes, I was inspired to register by the craziness of Donald Trump's recent candidacy. Some posts, admittedly, are pure sophistry. But in others I am trying to post reasonable comments and analysis which is not too far from what I actually do think (which can be a bit tough, under the circumstances), though I do enjoy throwing in things like "I am no more a troll than Donald Trump is" or "If it weren't a serious issue the media would not be covering it," or "Donald Trump is the President America deserves." If that is honestly a problem, I'll stop. But it seems to me to be similar to a lot of things I have read while lurking which have made me LOL. That's what I was going for, anyway.

[Green Line]

Retrumplican is an obvious sock/troll who needs to be banned pronto. I hate to feed the troll, but his case requires quick action. 67 posts per day? Seriously? Stop this guy from derailing the 2016 board even more.

OK, stepping out of character for a minute, I am a long time lurker (not on the 2016 forum, but mostly on the various election results ones and Political Geography and Demographics). Yes, I was inspired to register by the craziness of Donald Trump's recent candidacy. Some posts, admittedly, are pure sophistry. But in others I am trying to post reasonable comments and analysis which is not too far from what I actually do think (which can be a bit tough, under the circumstances), though I do enjoy throwing in things like "I am no more a troll than Donald Trump is" or "If it weren't a serious issue the media would not be covering it," or "Donald Trump is the President America deserves." If that is honestly a problem, I'll stop. But it seems to me to be similar to a lot of things I have read while lurking which have made me LOL. That's what I was going for, anyway.

My situation is almost exactly the same to his.  Its just a strange coincidence that we registered at the same time.  And btw your posts make me LOL, keep it up

[SteveRogers]

Retrumplican is an obvious sock/troll who needs to be banned pronto. I hate to feed the troll, but his case requires quick action. 67 posts per day? Seriously? Stop this guy from derailing the 2016 board even more.

OK, stepping out of character for a minute, I am a long time lurker (not on the 2016 forum, but mostly on the various election results ones and Political Geography and Demographics). Yes, I was inspired to register by the craziness of Donald Trump's recent candidacy. Some posts, admittedly, are pure sophistry. But in others I am trying to post reasonable comments and analysis which is not too far from what I actually do think (which can be a bit tough, under the circumstances), though I do enjoy throwing in things like "I am no more a troll than Donald Trump is" or "If it weren't a serious issue the media would not be covering it," or "Donald Trump is the President America deserves." If that is honestly a problem, I'll stop. But it seems to me to be similar to a lot of things I have read while lurking which have made me LOL. That's what I was going for, anyway.

My situation is almost exactly the same to his.  Its just a strange coincidence that we registered at the same time.  And btw your posts make me LOL, keep it up

[Hydera]

Hillary Clinton - VP: Julian Castro (D) : 244 EV's  : 38.78%

Scott Walker/Jeb Bush? - VP: Rand Paul (R) : 256 EV's  : 36.52%

Donald Trump - Ted Cruz (Independent-Right) :13%

Bernie Sanders - Elizabeth Warren (Independent-Left + Greens) : 9.2%

Tossup:  Florida : 29 EV's Deciding state : Despite a strong showing amongst Hispanics for Hillary Clinton, Left-wing fireband Alan Grayson stumps massively for Bernie Sanders in key democrat strongholds in Urban minority cities. Meanwhile Trump takes support of many conservative republicans and moderate suburbanites. This would be either a GOP win of 0.01-2% or a Democrat win of 0.01-1%.

  Nevada : 6 EV's : Close race between Clinton and the generic GOP candidate. Hillary ticket had a huge resurgence in latino support due to the nomination of Julian Castro as VP. However the poor economy that has yet to recover from the crash of the housing bubble along with a sizeable Mormon voterbase and centre-right suburbanites causes Nevada to be a tossup.

Vermont: 3 EV's : Progressive anger at the Democratic mainstream leadership causes a sizable showing for native son Bernie Sanders. Lots of Republicans come home from voting for Trump, at the prospect of winning this state with Generic GOP candidate visiting with Rand Paul to mount an upset.   (D) 30-39% (R) 30-39% (Sanders) 20-25%  (Other+Trump) 10-15%

Crappy Background story: Despite a 2016 election promising to be a Mainstream Democrat vs Mainstream Republican. Conservative anger at the GOP establishment and Left-wing Anger at the Democrat establishment for failure to implement party agendas after being elected and a distrust of perceived "One Party centrism" between the moderate wings of both parties causes a rise in support for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders to rise. Much to the relief of the party heads. Trump's success in the conservative heartland does not threaten chances of a GOP victory as many republicans on election day went home in crucial swing states to cause a tight election.  Meanwhile Bernie Sanders is blamed for allowing the lost of many states that Obama had won in 2012. Overall an interesting four way race between Center-right, Center-left, Ultra-right and Far-left. Produces the highest turnout the nation has seen in nearly a century as statsified ideological partisans cast their first time vote.