Hillary vs Bush vs Trump

[Crumpets]

A 46-30-20 split would look like this:

Switch Kansas for North Dakota and Mississippi for Arkansas, and I think that's pretty close. That being said, I think a Trump (I) candidacy would look much more like Buchanan than Perot.

[Crumpets]

Had some time, so I made a Clinton 46, Bush 30, Trump 20 map based on the 2012 results. On this map, Trump gets 72% of his support from Romney voters and 28% from Obama voters:

Clinton/Heinrich 46% 372 EV
Bush/Martinez 30% 117 EV
Trump/Ventura 20% 49 EV

This is based on a Trump vote distribution something like this:

30% - Well below average (~5%)
40% - Below average (~15%)
50% - Above average (~25%)
60% - Well above average (~35)