When will Trump drop out?

[Mehmentum]

Well?

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

I think he's gonna run as an Independent. His ego won't allow him to quit under any costs. ESPECIALLY if Bush is the nominee.

[dudeabides]

I think he's gonna run as an Independent. His ego won't allow him to quit under any costs. ESPECIALLY if Bush is the nominee.

In a Bush Vs. Clinton election, I predict Bush 50% Clinton 49% other 1%.

In a three way race, I am not delusional, I predict Clinton 45% Bush 38% Trump 16% Other 1%

[ProgressiveCanadian]

There's no way he's dropping out before election day.

[heatmaster]

No time is not soon enough for that self inflated blow-hard😉

[ElectionsGuy]

Before Iowa. I think he'll blow away his 24% in the poll slowly but surely before then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After he places a distant second to Jeb or Christie in NH, he hopefully drops out.

[dudeabides]

After he places a distant second to Jeb or Christie in NH, he hopefully drops out.

Your too kind, he has no chance in New Hampshire. Bush will win New Hampshire, Paul second, Trump will be lucky to be in 5th.

[Suburbia]

I think he'll run as an independent, and may be a spoiler for Bush.

[RI]

There's no stopping the Trump Train.

[Panhandle Progressive]

I think he'll run as an independent, and may be a spoiler for Bush.

Maybe 2016 will be a combination of 1988 and 1992. 1988 because the same party will win a 3rd consecutive term in office. 1992 because Trump running as an Independent would erode Bush's support in swing states enough to guarantee a Clinton victory on election day, much the same way Perot eroded H.W.'s support.

[Green Line]

He'll drop out when he runs out of money inna couple months.  He's not going to get enough donations to finance a campaign in iowa and new hampshire, and he is not as wealthy as he likes to make himself seem.

[Xing]

Maybe a few days after the 45th president is inaugurated.

[eric82oslo]

He'll drop out when he runs out of money inna couple months.  He's not going to get enough donations to finance a campaign in iowa and new hampshire, and he is not as wealthy as he likes to make himself seem.

He has urges his supporters not to send him any donations cause he doesn't need them, yet some idiots keep sending him Money nevertheless. I think money is the least of his problems.

[Retrumplican]

Constitutionally, Mr. Trump is not eligible to run for a 3rd term in 2024. So probably then. However, it is always possible that the 22nd Amendment could be repealed.

[Reluctant Republican]

The problem with Trump running as an independent is that he'd need to start organizing soon. None of the third parties with decent ballot access are likely to take him. So he would need to hire petitioners to get on the ballot in most states. I don't doubt he has the money for it but I'm given to understand it's difficult work. And if he waits until after Iowa I don't even know if he can get on every state.

The big issue I see is that I think some states could keep him off the ballot since he first ran as  a Republican. I seem to recall Gary Johnson not being allowed on the Michigan ballot due to having already ran in a primary as a Republican. Other states might be similar.

But for the purpose of this poll I'll be an optimist and hope he continues to entertain us all the way until election day.

[Frodo]

When he feels he's done enough to hurt the GOP's chances of winning back the White House (in 2016) beyond the point of no return, thus ensuring Hillary Clinton's triumph next November. 

[Donerail]

The problem with Trump running as an independent is that he'd need to start organizing soon. None of the third parties with decent ballot access are likely to take him. So he would need to hire petitioners to get on the ballot in most states. I don't doubt he has the money for it but I'm given to understand it's difficult work. And if he waits until after Iowa I don't even know if he can get on every state.

The Constitution Party, perhaps? They'd be morons not to - if Trump gets over 5% of the vote, as he's likely to, their candidate next cycle becomes eligible for public funding.

[Badger]

Torn between option 2 and 3. His money may keep him in till Super Tuesday, but he has to at least not embarrass himself in the early states.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm torn between 1 and 3.  I don't see him giving a 5th place concession speech in Iowa.  If his poll #s drop enough, then he'll just get out rather than embarrass himself further, perhaps before the end of this year.  OTOH, if he's still doing OK in the polls by the time the primaries start, then he probably continues on until he's mathematically eliminated from the nomination.

[dudeabides]

After he places a distant second to Jeb or Christie in NH, he hopefully drops out.

Your too kind, he has no chance in New Hampshire. Bush will win New Hampshire, Paul second, Trump will be lucky to be in 5th.

By that time, Walker will emerge as the candidate. Bush will be done.

Jeb Bush is going to win, with Scott Walker in second overall and your candidate in third.

[Leinad]

He might not drop out. His money will allow him to go as long as he wants, and his ego might demand it.

Before Iowa. I think he'll blow away his 24% in the poll slowly but surely before then.

Really? I agree it won't be 24%, but he is *not* in virtually any circumstances dropping out before voting starts.

He'll drop out when he runs out of money inna couple months.  He's not going to get enough donations to finance a campaign in iowa and new hampshire, and he is not as wealthy as he likes to make himself seem.

Maybe he isn't, but even if he only has 10% of what he says, he could use 10% of that to finance his entire campaign.

And might I add that running his campaign won't cost as much as other campaigns, I don't think. His universal name recognition and controversial actions keep him in the spotlight constantly, and his supporters will be energized enough to volunteer more often than, say, Jeb supporters (dudeabides is probably the only person truly excited for Jeb Bush).

The problem with Trump running as an independent is that he'd need to start organizing soon. None of the third parties with decent ballot access are likely to take him. So he would need to hire petitioners to get on the ballot in most states. I don't doubt he has the money for it but I'm given to understand it's difficult work. And if he waits until after Iowa I don't even know if he can get on every state.

The Constitution Party, perhaps? They'd be morons not to - if Trump gets over 5% of the vote, as he's likely to, their candidate next cycle becomes eligible for public funding.

They'd be morons to run with him, and I doubt he'd accept it. Have you seen the Constitution Party's platform? Lots of it (non-interventionism, social conservatism, etc.) simply isn't Trump's stuff. He'd be a better match for the Reform Party, which he used to be a member of. But I think he would rather run by himself as an independent. It would probably help the brand (anti-establishment, not taking orders from anyone, etc.) to do that as well.

After he places a distant second to Jeb or Christie in NH, he hopefully drops out.

Your too kind, he has no chance in New Hampshire. Bush will win New Hampshire, Paul second, Trump will be lucky to be in 5th.

By that time, Walker will emerge as the candidate. Bush will be done.

Jeb Bush is going to win, with Scott Walker in second overall and your candidate in third.

It's obviously impossible to make predictions with any accuracy this far out, but I'm going to guess it's Walker>Bush>Cruz. There's generally one socially conservative candidate in the top 3 (Santorum, Huckabee, Keyes, Buchanan, Robertson, etc.). The top 3 will consist of some combination of Walker, Bush, Rubio, Cruz, Huckabee, and maybe/hopefully Rand, but I'm pessimistic. Trump has literally no chance whatsoever.

[Retrumplican]

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The Constitution Party, perhaps? They'd be morons not to - if Trump gets over 5% of the vote, as he's likely to, their candidate next cycle becomes eligible for public funding.
[/quote]

They'd be morons to run with him, and I doubt he'd accept it. Have you seen the Constitution Party's platform? Lots of it (non-interventionism, social conservatism, etc.) simply isn't Trump's stuff. He'd be a better match for the Reform Party, which he used to be a member of. But I think he would rather run by himself as an independent. It would probably help the brand (anti-establishment, not taking orders from anyone, etc.) to do that as well.
[/quote]

Sure, they have different positions, but they have a common interest. Positions can be finessed, when there is an interest. That is the art of making the deal, and Donald Trump excels at making deals.

Trump would do basically his own thing, running in 2016. But in return, the Constitution Party would get public financing to run their own candidate in 2020, and maybe beyond. They could actually become a serious political entity, which they otherwise won't. Why wouldn't they spring for that?

[heatmaster]

He's running his mouth off as much as he is running for intention. A moron and his money are soon parted and he reminds me of Perot, but not as bright. He will soon swallow his foot😊

[SteveRogers]

Yeah, even with the necessary money Perot was only able to get nationwide ballot access by starting his petition drive stuff at basically the point in the cycle where we are right now. If he waits until after New Hampshire to drop out of the Republican primary and launch an independent bid, he will run into (1) sore loser laws and (2) missed filing deadlines. He'd have a good shot at challenging those restrictions in court, but that takes more time and more money and you basically have to mount your challenge state by state. Even if the Constitution Party would take him, they only had ballot access in 26 states in 2012, down from 37 in 2008.

He'd be a better match for the Reform Party, which he used to be a member of.

The Reform Party doesn't exist anymore. Pat Buchanan destroyed it in 2000. Now it's just a couple different groups of a handful of guys each who meet up in a hotel every few years to sue each other over who is the real Reform Party.

Now if Americans Elect makes another go of it...