Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Renua leaflet:

[bmw1503]

Awesome thread; it's been fascinating to learn so much about the internal dynamics of each constituency!

Who is the typical voter for each of the main parties/alliances, in Dublin specifically?

[ObserverIE]

Some demographic analysis from RTÉ and Trinity College.

Election broadcasts so far:

Fine Gael

Labour

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin

Alphabet Left

Try spotting the self-described witch in the Alphabet Left broadcast.

[ObserverIE]

Awesome thread; it's been fascinating to learn so much about the internal dynamics of each constituency!

Who is the typical voter for each of the main parties/alliances, in Dublin specifically?

Stereotype:

Fine Gael: professional and business classes, economically conservative, aspiring middle-classes and yuppies (if that's still a word) both actual and would-be; outside of Dublin larger farmers and the soi-disant "better class of people". A certain amount of what would in Britain be termed working-class Tories (although FG tends not to be particularly friendly to either the populism or nationalism that characterises working-class Toryism).

Labour: socially-liberal professional urbanites, not especially left-wing economically but secularist. Trade-union activists of a certain type, self-conscious supporters of League of Ireland soccer clubs (not, definitely not, Premiership or, worse still, GAA). Would formerly have had working-class support in urban and rural areas (the party's long-term base up until the late 60s was rural agricultural workers) but most of that has deserted the party since 2011 and it always played second fiddle to FF even among those voters.

Fianna Fáil: older middle-to-lower-middle and skilled working-classes, particularly those who have bought their homes from the council (the two old dears swimming in the giant armchairs in the election broadcast are utter FF stereotypes). Outside of Dublin, traditionally would have relied on smaller farmers and business people and the majority of working-class voters. It has shrunk to its core since 2008/09, leaving a large void that no-one else has yet really claimed for themselves.

Sinn Féin: traditionally a mixture of rural supporters who were similar to FF supporters except even more so, a smattering of cultural nationalists, and a working-class subculture in the bigger towns and cities. Has expanded since 2008/09 among working-class voters who might traditionally have supported FF or, more recently, Labour but who are disaffected by the economic collapse and subsequent austerity measures.

Alphabet Left: terminally-disaffected working-class voters in Dublin's suburban banlieues and purple-haired intersectionalist SJWs rallying to the banner of a collection of middle-aged, middle-class Trotskyite fantasists given to chronic internecine feuding.

Social Democrats: stereotypical middle-class ex-Labour supporters who were only prepared to stomach so many U-turns and hypocrisies from the leadership.

Renua: a mixture of small-business "get the government out of my way" types and social conservatives with a smattering of people who have made the mistake of taking Ayn Rand seriously.

Greens: see the first sentence of the description of Labour supporters, and substitute the word "secularist" with the word "environmentalist". Throw in a bunch of alternative lifestylers in the more trendy parts of the Irish countryside (west Cork, north Clare, Leitrim).

[ObserverIE]

RedC for Paddy Power:

FG 30 (-1)
FF 18 (+1)
SF 17 (-)
Ind/Oth 16 (-)
Lab 8 (-2)
SP/SWP 4 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
Renua 2 (+1)
GP 2 (-)

[Јas]

Our first (that I know of) constituency poll...

TG4 commissioned Ipsos MRBI to poll Donegal

%
19 Doherty (SF) 
17 McConalogue (FF) 
13 McHugh (FG) 
13 Gallagher (FF)
  9 Mac Lochlainn (SF)
  7 Pringle (i)
  7 Shiels (i)
  4 Harte (FG) 
  4 McBrearty (i)
  3 Jackson  (i)
  2 Doherty (SF) 
  2 McGarvey (i) 
  2 Kennedy (i)


Looks like they intend to poll Kerry and Galway West in the coming weeks.

http://www.tg4.ie/en/corporate/press/press-releases/2016-2/09-02-16/

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

And to think Kennedy was supposed to be a contender...

[YL]

I wouldn't hold out much hope for the accuracy of constituency polls of STV elections, especially in places like Donegal.

[YL]

I fully expect Michael Healy-Rae to top the poll here. Arguably the most unintelligible TD to outside ears, the Healy-Raes nonetheless appear to make sense to the good people of Kerry. They are entrenched solidly here as they embark on their 5th term between father and son. Michael's brothers topped the polls in Killarney and Kerry S&W in the 2014 locals - and had they put other brothers, sisters or anyone else called Healy-Rae up for election, they'd have been elected too - Danny Healy-Rae got comfortably over two quotas, and Johnny wasn't all that far behind. Michael will be on the shortlist as one of the most biddable independents returned for any government looking to cobble together a majority.

I remember on one occasion several years ago when I was in Ireland I was watching RTE news, there was some local issue in Kerry, and they interviewed Jackie Healy-Rae about it.  I think I understood some of what he said.

Their last few elections in Kerry South have actually been pretty marginal: Jackie was elected under quota in both 2002 and 2007 and Michael similarly in 2011.  But Kerry representation in the Dáil wouldn't be the same without the famous cap...

[YL]

... and the Healy-Rae election song:
http://midkerryjournal.com/news/healy-rae-gets-truly-diverse-with-election-song/

[Јas]

And another constituency poll is out.

The Irish Independent commissioned Millward Brown to poll Dublin West...



http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/joan-burton-staring-at-end-of-political-career-34443089.html

[Јas]

By the by, some electoral trivium, the good people of Listowel in County Kerry are in the middle of a re-count of the local election for the area from 2014.

More here: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kerry-local-election-recount-suspended-over-disputed-ballots-1.2529277

[MaxQue]

I'm surprised Irish Times is even allowed to mention Catherine Murphy.

[ObserverIE]

I'm surprised Irish Times is even allowed to mention Catherine Murphy.

It's the ironically-named Independent group that is owned by [REDACTED].

[ObserverIE]

And another constituency poll is out.

The Irish Independent commissioned Millward Brown to poll Dublin West...



http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/joan-burton-staring-at-end-of-political-career-34443089.html

Party totals and changes since the 2011 election FWIW:

FG 22 (-7)
SF 20 (+14)
FF 17 (-) (although the second FF candidate last time is polling 9% as an independent)
SP 15 (-4)
Lab 10 (-19)
GP 2 (+1)

On those figures, I'd think it quite possible that McGuinness (the disenchanted FFer) could overhaul Joan Burton in the later counts.

[Јas]

Breaking news from Kerry on nomination day...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.radiokerry.ie/news/danny-healy-rae/


I'll take another look at my Kerry prediction later, but my initial instinct is that two Healy-Raes in the Dáil is a real possibility.

[ObserverIE]

Breaking news from Kerry on nomination day...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.radiokerry.ie/news/danny-healy-rae/


I'll take another look at my Kerry prediction later, but my initial instinct is that two Healy-Raes in the Dáil is a real possibility.

Negotiations under way for a third candidate to fill the gender quota and pull in votes from north Kerry:

[ObserverIE]

First TV debate tonight, featuring the main party leaders and Joan Burton, on TV3 and jointly hosted by TV3 and the [REDACTED]-owned NewsTalk.

http://www.tv3.ie/3player/live/tv3/

[Vosem]

And another constituency poll is out.

The Irish Independent commissioned Millward Brown to poll Dublin West...



http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/joan-burton-staring-at-end-of-political-career-34443089.html

Party totals and changes since the 2011 election FWIW:

FG 22 (-7)
SF 20 (+14)
FF 17 (-) (although the second FF candidate last time is polling 9% as an independent)
SP 15 (-4)
Lab 10 (-19)
GP 2 (+1)

On those figures, I'd think it quite possible that McGuinness (the disenchanted FFer) could overhaul Joan Burton in the later counts.

Pardon my ignorance, but isn't Dublin West a 4-seater? Assuming those numbers are accurate (big assumption for constituency-level polling anywhere), wouldn't it be difficult to see anything but Varadkar/Donnelly/Chambers/Coppinger on those numbers? SF and FF seem like comparatively transfer-unfriendly parties, but that gap between Chambers and Burton or McGuinness seems too large to me to be overcome.

[ObserverIE]

Yes, to make it clear, on those figures Burton would not even make it to the final count, which would be between Coppinger and McGuinness.

FF aren't as transfer-unfriendly as they were and Chambers would undoubtedly pick up enough scraps to get him over the line.

[Јas]

Close of nominations was noon yesterday.

Below are my numbers cobbled together from various sources... E&OE

Included also is the number of female candidates. For those unaware, rules regarding State funding for parties changed since the last election. Parties running greater than 70% of their candidates of one gender would suffer significant financial penalty under the new rules.

	Candidates	Candidates
Party	Total	Female
Fine Gael	88	27
Fianna Fáil	71	22
Sinn Féin	50	18
Green	40	14
Labour	36	13
AAA-PBP	31	13
Renua	26	8
Independent Alliance	21	5
Direct Democracy	18	3
SocDems	14	6
Independents 4 Change	5	2
Workers	5	2
People’s Convention	4	1
UnitedPeople	3	1
Catholic Democrats	3	2
Irish Democratic Party	2	1
WUAG	1	0
Fís Nua	1	1
Communist	1	0
Independents	131

[DavidB.]

As always, a great post, Jas. I have some questions. What is the depost threshold? And related to transfers: Do most people transfer their vote, or do they generally only indicate their first preference? If people transfer their vote, do they often do this "tactically", e.g. "FG has my first preference, but the second FG candidate in my constituency won't be elected anyway, so I'll give the Labour candidate my second preference in order to get him elected", or do they then often give the second FG candidate their second preference and give the Labour candidate their third preference? And what could we generally expect this time, in terms of transfers? I suppose most FG voters, who tend to approve of the government's record, would transfer to Labour, but the other way around... maybe not so much. And how do you think FF and SF voters will transfer?

[Zanas]

Close of nominations was noon yesterday.

Below are my numbers cobbled together from various sources... E&OE

Included also is the number of female candidates. For those unaware, rules regarding State funding for parties changed since the last election. Parties running greater than 70% of their candidates of one gender would suffer significant financial penalty under the new rules.

	Candidates	Candidates
Party	Total	Female
Fine Gael	88	27
Fianna Fáil	71	22
Sinn Féin	50	18
Green	40	14
Labour	36	13
AAA-PBP	31	13
Renua	26	8
Independent Alliance	21	5
Direct Democracy	18	3
SocDems	14	6
Independents 4 Change	5	2
Workers	5	2
People’s Convention	4	1
UnitedPeople	3	1
Catholic Democrats	3	2
Irish Democratic Party	2	1
WUAG	1	0
Fís Nua	1	1
Communist	1	0
Independents	131

Wow what a sexist country. I mean not even the anticapitalists or Green make the effort to throw in as many females as males. Sad.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 28 (-2)
SF 20 (+3)
FF 18 (-)
Ind/Oth 16 (-)
Lab 8 (-)
SD 4 (+1)
SP/SWP 3 (-1)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 1 (-1)

Apparently political insiders and the media are surprised, even shocked, by this result, which has followed a week of co-ordinated attacks against Sinn Féin over the issue of the Special Criminal Court (a non-jury court set up under emergency legislation in 1972 and which largely deals with trials of republican - now dissident republican - paramilitaries).

Its current relevance is because a leading "republican" figure in south Armagh/north Louth was tried and convicted in the SCC a couple of weeks ago for tax evasion offences. The convicted man, Thomas "Slab" Murphy, was influential in securing acceptance for the peace process among the IRA in south Armagh, and Gerry Adams described him as a "good republican" after the conviction and said, along with other senior SF figures, that Murphy shouldn't have been tried before the SCC, which SF want to abolish in any case.

This produced a wave of concerted and largely synthetic outrage from the three other main parties, led by FG, and with enthusiastic support from RTÉ and [REDACTED]-owned Independent Newspapers. One RTÉ journalist (Claire Byrne) actually announced on the radio this lunchtime that the Special Criminal Court was the only important issue in the election.

The trial judge announced yesterday that the verdict sentencing in the Murphy case would be announced on February 26th - the day of the election.

Anyone who remembers the media sh*tstorm over the Máiria Cahill allegations last year, accompanied by the same tag-team attacks by the "traditional" parties and the media, might recall that the chief effect of the furore was to increase support for SF in the opinion polls.

Middle-class south Dublin, where the media and political commentariat reside, may well be terrified of the barbarians at the gate, but the world beyond has lost all trust in the political and media establishment. If they have any sense at all, they will move onto another topic, and move on quickly.

[DavidB.]

What is the background of this [REDACTED] stuff all the time?

And how will the government look like if FG and Labour fall short of a majority by far (meaning that convincing some independents won't be enough)? Which scenarios are most likely? How likely is FF-SF?