Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[ObserverIE]

A local poll in Clare (conducted by the Marketing Department of the local university, FWIW) shows SF and Ind gaining seats at the expense of FG and Lab.

Party votes:

FF 27.9 (+0.5)
FG 24.7 (-17.7)
Ind/Oth 22.1 (+3.3)
SF 12.9 (+12.9)
Lab 8.7 (-6.1)
GP 3.7 (+1.7)

[Јas]

Donegal polled again.
http://www.highlandradio.com/2016/02/18/latest-tribune-poll-sees-fg-support-drop-while-independents-gain-ground/

This time by the local paper the Tirconaill Tribune.
Polling conducted from the 12th-15th; I don't have who the polling company was yet.
Sample size reported as 1,000.


Below is that detail, plus the numbers from the recent TG4/Ipsos MRBI poll (conducted 4-5 Feb).
 

	Tirconaill	TG4
	Tribune	Ipsos MRBI
Doherty (SF)	18.9	19
McConalogue (FF)	13.7	17
Gallagher (FF)	10.0	13
Pringle (i)	9.2	7
McHugh (FG)	8.7	13
Shiels (i)	8.2	7
Mac Lochlainn (SF)	7.5	9
Doherty (SF)	5.0	2
Jackson  (i)	4.9	3
Harte (FG)	4.6	4
McBrearty (i)	3.0	4
Kennedy (i)	3.0	2
McGarvey (i)	1.6	2
Flanagan (GP)	0.6
Mooney (i)	0.6
Nic Fhearraigh (FN)	0.4

Donegal is a 5-seater, so the quota is 16.67%.

[Јas]

And another...

The Irish Independent commissioned Millward Browne to poll Dublin Bay South.

%
20 Murphy (FG)
17 Andrews (SF)
13 Creighton (Renua)
13 Humphries (Lab)
11 O'Callaghan (FF)
10 O'Connell (FG)
  7 Ryan (Green)


No sign of the other 8 percentage points in the article. The three candidates not mentioned are the AAA-PBP, SocDems, and independent Mannix Flynn.

DBS is a 4-seater, so has a 20% quota.

Sample size: 498
Conducted: Feb 12-16

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/fg-has-creightons-dil-seat-firmly-in-its-sights-34467153.html

[ObserverIE]

And another...

The Irish Independent commissioned Millward Browne to poll Dublin Bay South.

%
20 Murphy (FG)
17 Andrews (SF)
13 Creighton (Renua)
13 Humphries (Lab)
11 O'Callaghan (FF)
10 O'Connell (FG)
  7 Ryan (Green)

No sign of the other 8 percentage points in the article. The three candidates not mentioned are the AAA-PBP, SocDems, and independent Mannix Flynn.

From the dead-tree edition:

 4 Mooney (SWP)
 2 Flynn (Ind)
 2 Lynch (SD)
 1 O'Gorman (Ind)

Compared with the last election:

FG 30 (-6)
SF 17 (+13)
Lab 13 (-12)
Renua 13 (+13)
FF 11 (-)
Green 7 (-)
SWP 4 (+2)
Flynn 2 (-2)
SD 2 (+2)
Oth Ind 1 (-11)

According to the second preference figures given, O'Connell is on 19 and Creighton on 6, with the Indo bigging up their favourite Blueblouse totty to knock out Lucinda as a result.



However, a lot of that 19 is likely to come from her running mate Murphy and from Labour's Humphreys, both of whom are ahead of her and likely to stay ahead of her during the count, and therefore won't be available to her.

On those figures, I would expect Andrews to pick up enough from the SWP and independents to be home and hosed. Flynn's votes will go everywhere, except perhaps SF.

Ryan and Lynch's votes will go to "progressive" but "nice" candidates. This might favour O'Connell, who has run a very well-financed campaign trying to out-Ivana Ivana in one of the few constituencies where that would be a net positive, except that Humphries will still be in the race and will be competitive for those votes, and I don't see her overtaking him.

The next one to go out will be O'Callaghan. If any block of votes in Dublin South East is likely to favour Creighton over O'Connell, it will be the rather socially-conservative rump of FF.

I'd call it Murphy, Andrews, Humphries, Creighton.

How the embassy belt and the chatterati react to having a Shinner TD (even one who's a recycled FFer) remains to be seen.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So according to constituency polls Sinn Fein are going to gain a seat in Dublin Bay South but lose Martin Ferris in Kerry. Don't mind me if I take a whole bucket of salt with these polls.

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Not all of DBS is like Ballsbridge or Ranelagh, there's also Ringsend and the South East Inner City where I suspect a lot of these Shinner votes are coming from

[ObserverIE]

So according to constituency polls Sinn Fein are going to gain a seat in Dublin Bay South but lose Martin Ferris in Kerry. Don't mind me if I take a whole bucket of salt with these polls.

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Not all of DBS is like Ballsbridge or Ranelagh, there's also Ringsend and the South East Inner City where I suspect a lot of these Shinner votes are coming from

I'm well aware of that.... I spent a looooonnnng time living in Dublin 4 and 6 flatland (I even lived in Ranelagh before it got gentrified in earnest - I remember TriBeCa when it was a very greasy greasy spoon). But the matrons of Shrewsbury Road and the radical chic of Mountpleasant Square also form part of the mix.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constituency polls? For an STV election? In Ireland? Do I even need to say my usual piece or can it just be taken not just as read but as re-read?

[ObserverIE]

Allegations of a B&A poll (apparently there was a PDF up on the website which has now disappeared)Existence confirmed and published:

FG 30 (+2)
FF 22 (+2)
SF 15 (-2)
Ind/Oth 15 (+1)
SP/SWP 5 (+2)
Lab 4 (-4)
SD 3 (-1)
Renua 3 (+1)
GP 3 (+1)
WP 1 (-)

Even I doubt that Labour are as low as 4%.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Allegations of a B&A poll (apparently there was a PDF up on the website which has now disappeared):

FG 30 (+2)
FF 22 (+2)
SF 15 (-2)
Ind/Oth 15 (+1)
SP/SWP 5 (+2)
Lab 4 (-4)
SD 3 (-1)
Renua 3 (+1)
GP 3 (+1)
WP 1 (-)

Even I doubt that Labour are as low as 4%.

[MaxQue]

Allegations of a B&A poll (apparently there was a PDF up on the website which has now disappeared):

FG 30 (+2)
FF 22 (+2)
SF 15 (-2)
Ind/Oth 15 (+1)
SP/SWP 5 (+2)
Lab 4 (-4)
SD 3 (-1)
Renua 3 (+1)
GP 3 (+1)
WP 1 (-)

Even I doubt that Labour are as low as 4%.

And add a few more tons of salt on the top of that, for constituency polls.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Irish Independent on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

[afleitch]

The Irish Independent on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

Replace SF with SNP and Adams with Sturgeon and you have the Scottish press over the past 18 months. Nice to know we're not so different after all

[DavidB.]

And the Irish Independent is... pro-coalition?

This kind of scaremongering against anti-establishment parties seldom works (well, it might work counterproductively).

[ObserverIE]

And the Irish Independent is... pro-coalition?

This kind of scaremongering against anti-establishment parties seldom works (well, it might work counterproductively).

It is principally pro-Denis O'Brien.

It was traditionally the Fine Gael house journal until 1997 when it turned towards Ahern's FF as revenge for the outgoing government's failure to sufficiently support its then-owner's commercial interests. It then stayed with FF all through the Tiger years until turning towards FG as the default right-wing option in the aftermath of the crash.

It has always been anti-SF but it has gone into overdrive now that it perceives the party as a threat to the way things are done.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 30 (+4)
FF 18 (-1)
SF 16 (-1)
Ind/Oth 15 (-3)
Lab 8 (-1)
SD 4 (+1)
GP 4 (-)
SP/SWP 3 (+1)
Renua 2 (-)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

RedC Poll for The Sunday Business Post

FG 30 (+2)
Ind/Oth 28 (+2)
FF 18 (-)
SF 16 (-4)
Lab 8 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Full breakdown of Inds/Others will be released tomorrow

 ^
 |__________ points to previous post...

[Oakvale]

Can't wait for the scintillating analysis in the media on this reversion to the mean after a couple of outliers.

[ObserverIE]

IMS/Millward Brown for the Sunday Independent:

FG 27 (-)
FF 23 (+1)
SF 19 (-2)
Ind/Oth 13 (-6)
Lab 6 (-)
SP/SWP 6 (+4)
SD 4 (+3)
Renua 2 (+1)
GP 2 (+1)

(Yes, I know the numbers add to 102)

[Hifly]

This is fantastic

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/politics/general-election-2016-watch-angry-7408545

[YL]

IMS/Millward Brown for the Sunday Independent:

FG 27 (-)
FF 23 (+1)
SF 19 (-2)
Ind/Oth 13 (-6)
Lab 6 (-)
SP/SWP 6 (+4)
SD 4 (+3)
Renua 2 (+1)
GP 2 (+1)

(Yes, I know the numbers add to 102)

Presumably the SP/SWP number is an outlier.

I don't really know who I should be rooting for in this election.  SDs are probably the best fit ideologically but aren't likely to be a major player.

[ObserverIE]

IMS/Millward Brown for the Sunday Independent:

FG 27 (-)
FF 23 (+1)
SF 19 (-2)
Ind/Oth 13 (-6)
Lab 6 (-)
SP/SWP 6 (+4)
SD 4 (+3)
Renua 2 (+1)
GP 2 (+1)

(Yes, I know the numbers add to 102)

Presumably the SP/SWP number is an outlier.

They're on 5% in B&A and 3% in RedC so 6% is not a huge outlier. Their representative (Richard Boyd-Barrett) was considered to have performed well in the leader's debate on Tuesday.

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Their weakness is that they have few candidates and some of the ones they do have are weak. A lot of people may turn up at the polling station to find that the party they intended to vote for is not actually on the ballot in their constituency.

For example, they have no candidate in either of the social liberal bastions of Dún Laoghaire and Rathdown, or in Fingal, Dublin West, Kildare South, and the two urban Cork constituencies, all of which would be likely areas for them to do well in. They will hold the three seats they're defending but I don't see any obvious gains - their best chance of a gain looks like Dublin Bay North, where they're running a sitting councillor who got re-elected as an independent in 2014, but where there's a lot of competition on the "progressive" left with two sitting independent TDs, two SF and two Alphabet Left candidates, a Labour junior minister and, last and hopefully least, Adorable Averil.

[Green Line]

Averil Power and Claire Underwood have an uncanny resemblance.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 28 (-)
FF 23 (+2)
Ind/Oth 18 (+2)
SF 15 (-4)
Lab 6 (-1)
SP/SWP 3 (-1)
SD 3 (+1)
Renua 2 (+1)
GP 2 (-)

More details here.

[ObserverIE]

Two things that would now not shock me come Saturday:

1. FF outpolling or being within 2% of FG on first preferences.
2. Labour being on 3 seats or fewer.