Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[ObserverIE]

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/confirmed-candidates-for-next-general_3.html

Cool maps I founded the nominated candidates so far. Also the two major trot groups have merged, or something?

They've formed a marriage of convenience for the duration of the election campaign. Hostilities will be resumed in the aftermath.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There was a big rumpus last week at the FF conference over gender quotas, or something.

[Crumpets]

I only just started paying attention to this election, and I have a question. It looks like Sinn Fein are polling in a strong third place and they seem pretty set to be the main left-of-centre party in the next Dail. Has Sinn Fein ever held such a strong position, and what are the implications if the polls stand?

[ObserverIE]

There was a big rumpus last week at the FF conference over gender quotas, or something.

All parties need to have a minimum of 30% of their candidates to be female in order to receive matching state funding after the next election. Both FF and FG have been having occasional selection problems as a result.

There are two rows going on in FF over constituency parties effectively having particular female candidates imposed on them by HQ supposedly to fill the gender quota.

The first, which is going to law, is in Dublin Central - Bertie Ahern's old stomping ground - where the female candidate (Mary Fitzpatrick) has been a long-term opponent of the Ahern machine. Ahern himself is totally discredited and resigned from FF before they got the chance to expel him, but the remnants of his machine have been trying to thwart Fitzpatrick's selection by putting up virtual unknowns against her. One of these unknowns (the son of a mate of Ahern's) is now taking a court case to try to have the gender quota legislation declared unconstitutional.

The second row is in Longford, which is my own home area.

Longford forms part of the larger Longford-Westmeath constituency which elects 4 TDs (currently 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab). FF, traditionally dominant here, managed to scrape the last seat last time with the least-known of a three-candidate ticket. The newcomer TD has since moved to consolidate his position within the party, firstly by ensuring that there would be only one FF candidate from Westmeath (himself) along with one candidate from Longford, and then by ensuring that the Longford FF candidate would present no internal threat to him. Accordingly a complete unknown put herself forward at the last moment for the FF nomination in Longford along with two much stronger male candidates. FF HQ then issued a directive on the morning of the selection convention that the selected candidate must be female, and the female unknown was declared on the night as being automatically selected without the supposed selectorate being given any say. The local FF organisation are in a mutinous mood and the "selected" candidate is refusing to speak to local media, forwarding all interview requests to FF HQ.

The winners of this episode are Robert Troy (sitting FF TD) and James Bannon (idiot FG TD for Longford whose path to re-election has been assured).

[ObserverIE]

I only just started paying attention to this election, and I have a question. It looks like Sinn Fein are polling in a strong third place and they seem pretty set to be the main left-of-centre party in the next Dail. Has Sinn Fein ever held such a strong position, and what are the implications if the polls stand?

Part 1 of your question: No.

Part 2 of your question: The media and political establishment in the Republic are doing their utmost to damage SF. Labour and FF are trying, as best they can, to put the boot into a perceived threat to their support bases. We will probably get a FG government propped up by FF at the behest of the previously-mentioned establishment to keep the barbarians from the gate.

[Halgrímur]

I only just started paying attention to this election, and I have a question. It looks like Sinn Fein are polling in a strong third place and they seem pretty set to be the main left-of-centre party in the next Dail. Has Sinn Fein ever held such a strong position, and what are the implications if the polls stand?

Part 1 of your question: No.

Part 2 of your question: The media and political establishment in the Republic are doing their utmost to damage SF. Labour and FF are trying, as best they can, to put the boot into a perceived threat to their support bases. We will probably get a FG government propped up by FF at the behest of the previously-mentioned establishment to keep the barbarians from the gate.

Any chance Gerry Adams steps down to let someone untainted (both of terrorism and "I knew my brother raped my niece and I didn't do squat about it") like Mary Lou McDonald lead them into the election? If so, would that be an advantage for them?

[ObserverIE]

Any chance Gerry Adams steps down to let someone untainted (both of terrorism and "I knew my brother raped my niece and I didn't do squat about it") like Mary Lou McDonald lead them into the election?

No.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Probably less than you would think. SF could select Aung San Suu Kyi as leader and the groups who detest SF would still detest SF. The Adams who was never in the IRA is also the Adams who is seen as having helped to stop the war.

[Halgrímur]

Any chance Gerry Adams steps down to let someone untainted (both of terrorism and "I knew my brother raped my niece and I didn't do squat about it") like Mary Lou McDonald lead them into the election?

No.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Probably less than you would think. SF could select Aung San Suu Kyi as leader and the groups who detest SF would still detest SF. The Adams who was never in the IRA is also the Adams who is seen as having helped to stop the war.

Okay, thanks for the answer.

Isn't it generally assumed by almost everyone that he was in the IRA?

[ObserverIE]

Any chance Gerry Adams steps down to let someone untainted (both of terrorism and "I knew my brother raped my niece and I didn't do squat about it") like Mary Lou McDonald lead them into the election?

No.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Probably less than you would think. SF could select Aung San Suu Kyi as leader and the groups who detest SF would still detest SF. The Adams who was never in the IRA is also the Adams who is seen as having helped to stop the war.

Okay, thanks for the answer.

Isn't it generally assumed by almost everyone that he was in the IRA?

Yes.

But the result of him actually admitting it would be a wave of synthetic outrage from the usual suspects North and South and another likely arrest like the one in the run-up to last year's local and European elections. IRA membership is still an indictable offence.

[tpfkaw]

I mean, why would anyone have a reason to dislike the IRA or its "alleged" former(?) leader. What fakers.

Sounds more like a secret austerity plot to me, probably Zionist in nature.

[Halgrímur]

Any chance Gerry Adams steps down to let someone untainted (both of terrorism and "I knew my brother raped my niece and I didn't do squat about it") like Mary Lou McDonald lead them into the election?

No.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Probably less than you would think. SF could select Aung San Suu Kyi as leader and the groups who detest SF would still detest SF. The Adams who was never in the IRA is also the Adams who is seen as having helped to stop the war.

Okay, thanks for the answer.

Isn't it generally assumed by almost everyone that he was in the IRA?

Yes.

But the result of him actually admitting it would be a wave of synthetic outrage from the usual suspects North and South and another likely arrest like the one in the run-up to last year's local and European elections. IRA membership is still an indictable offence.

Yeah, the lack of a general amnesty was a weakness in the GFA (also leading to absurdities like Chief-of-Staff Martin McGuinness officially dropping out back in 1974...). A South African style Truth and Reconciliation-process would have been much better. 

I just wondered why you didn't put it as "who was never in the IRA", so had to ask.

[ObserverIE]

Any chance Gerry Adams steps down to let someone untainted (both of terrorism and "I knew my brother raped my niece and I didn't do squat about it") like Mary Lou McDonald lead them into the election?

No.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Probably less than you would think. SF could select Aung San Suu Kyi as leader and the groups who detest SF would still detest SF. The Adams who was never in the IRA is also the Adams who is seen as having helped to stop the war.

Okay, thanks for the answer.

Isn't it generally assumed by almost everyone that he was in the IRA?

Yes.

But the result of him actually admitting it would be a wave of synthetic outrage from the usual suspects North and South and another likely arrest like the one in the run-up to last year's local and European elections. IRA membership is still an indictable offence.

Yeah, the lack of a general amnesty was a weakness in the GFA (also leading to absurdities like Chief-of-Staff Martin McGuinness officially dropping out back in 1974...). A South African style Truth and Reconciliation-process would have been much better. 

I just wondered why you didn't put it as "who was never in the IRA", so had to ask.

I was using the standard formula.

[ObserverIE]

I mean, why would anyone have a reason to dislike the IRA or its "alleged" former(?) leader. What fakers.

Sounds more like a secret austerity plot to me, probably Zionist in nature.

Let me put it this way.

When SF were polling 5-6% of the vote during the 2000s (and the IRA's violence was a lot more recent), there wasn't anything like the intensity of outrage coming from the Republic's establishment that there is now.

[tpfkaw]

I mean, why would anyone have a reason to dislike the IRA or its "alleged" former(?) leader. What fakers.

Sounds more like a secret austerity plot to me, probably Zionist in nature.

Let me put it this way.

When SF were polling 5-6% of the vote during the 2000s (and the IRA's violence was a lot more recent), there wasn't anything like the intensity of outrage coming from the Republic's establishment that there is now.

Well duh. When fringey ideas/parties (or even non-fringey ones) become popular, people opposed to them will also start speaking out against them more.

[ObserverIE]

I mean, why would anyone have a reason to dislike the IRA or its "alleged" former(?) leader. What fakers.

Sounds more like a secret austerity plot to me, probably Zionist in nature.

Let me put it this way.

When SF were polling 5-6% of the vote during the 2000s (and the IRA's violence was a lot more recent), there wasn't anything like the intensity of outrage coming from the Republic's establishment that there is now.

Well duh. When fringey ideas/parties (or even non-fringey ones) become popular, people opposed to them will also start speaking out against them more.

No. The difference is that they're now perceived as being a real threat to "the way things are done here" where they weren't seen as such before, and the crash and its aftermath has made "the way things are done here" more vulnerable to public resentment in the first place.

(Ironically, I suspect that if SF were to actually get into power things would change a great deal less than their detractors fear or their supporters hope.)

[Crumpets]

Here are the polling averages for November:

Fine Gael - 29.0%
Fianna Fail - 20.5
Sinn Fein - 20.25
Labour Party - 7.0
AAA-PBP - 5.33 (not including Sunday Independent poll, which didn't list them as a separate option)
Green Party - 1.5

[joevsimp]

still no sign of a date? this state of the parties rundown suggests early March..

http://jasonomahony.ie/state-of-the-parties-6/

[ObserverIE]

February 26 is considered most likely.

Any later would interfere with the traditional ministerial junkets to Washington and other foreign parts for St. Patrick's Day celebrations.

[Kevinstat]

Does anyone else feel this term has gone by faster than the previous one, even though this term has lasted over a year longer already?  It may just be that I haven't been following things as much, and it could also be because there was never any danger of this government being forced into an early election via loss of confidence, which there was for the previous government.  There also hasn't been a change in Taoiseach since this term began.  Anyway, I'm happy that another Irish election will soon be upon us.

[ObserverIE]

Does anyone else feel this term has gone by faster than the previous one, even though this term has lasted over a year longer already?  It may just be that I haven't been following things as much, and it could also be because there was never any danger of this government being forced into an early election via loss of confidence, which there was for the previous government.  There also hasn't been a change in Taoiseach since this term began.  Anyway, I'm happy that another Irish election will soon be upon us.

Speaking as someone at the sharp end of it, the sheer succession of disasters between September 2008 and December 2010 made things feel longer even if they weren't.

[Хahar 🤔]

I am unconvinced that independents will not form the largest group in the next Dáil.

[Green Line]

I am unconvinced that independents will not form the largest group in the next Dáil.

The independent numbers have dropped significantly as the election has drawn closer.  

"Other" was 13% of the vote in 2011 (and was polling at 15%-16% up to the election).  The past three December polls have put it at 18%-19%.  There's no way they are overtaking the three main parties with those numbers.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Fianna Fail: Nationalise the banks!

Also:

[ObserverIE]

Also:

Oooohh!! Aaaaghhh!! Scary left-wingers!!!

Labour. We're desperate.

[Oakvale]

The ad is great and it's a shame to see the wimp faction in Labour backpedal from it.