Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Republic of Ireland will probably have an election in late 2015, or early 2016; so I thought I'd jump the gun on the official thread as we are already seeing some selection drama.

I assume most people know about this, but here's a summary:

The Fine Gael/Labour coalition led by Taoiseach Enda Kenny (FG) and Tanaiste Joan Burton (Lab) have led a socially liberal, yet austere administration. It has been one plagued with controversy around new water fees and a property tax; which has been especially toxic to junior partner Labour. That said, Kenny is (if polls hold) likely to be the first FG leader ever to be reflected as Taioseach.

The two main opposition parties are populist "natural party of governing" Fianna Fáil, struggling to deal with its reputation from the discredited Ahern/Cowan years and its historic defeat in 2011; and the surging leftist republicans Sinn Fein, which are restricted by their vague economic platform and several skeletons in their closets from the Troubles, and a nasty Paedogedden related scandal.

Minor parties (which have polled extremely well this Dail) include the Greens (evicted from the Dail following their doomed coalition with FF); several far-left outfits (of which the most important are Socialist Party front group the Anti Austerity Alliance, Socialist Worker front group People Before Profit and Tipperary based one-man band WUAG); Renua Ireland, a vague centre-right grouping formed by former FG TD Lucinda Creighton; the Independent Alliance (not a party) a loosely affiliated group of local heroes led by popular Independent Shane Ross and the new Social Democrats, a centre-left split of a dissident Labour TD and two indies.

Voting is done by STV, under a new map. It will then be followed by a strange election to Ireland's weirdo upper house the Seenad, where all the terrible politicians who can't get elected to anything go.

[politicus]

Well, I hope they wait to 2016. Apart from the US its gonna be a really meagre year electionwise.

[politicus]

the new Social Democrats, a centre-left split of dissident Ex-labour TD's.

Does this 3 (wo)man band have any potential?

EDIT: I can see they advocate "the Nordic model". Is that sellable in Ireland? (

[ObserverIE]

Minor parties (which have polled extremely well this Dail) include the Greens (evicted from the Dail following their doomed coalition with FF); several far-left outfits (of which the most important are Socialist Party front group the Anti Austerity Alliance, Socialist Worker Front group People Before Profit and Tipperary based one-man band WUAG); Renua Ireland, a vague centre-right grouping formed by former FG TD Lucinda Creighton; the Independent Alliance (not a party) a loosely affiliated group of local heroes led by popular Independent Shane Ross and the new Social Democrats, a centre-left split of dissident Ex-labour TD's.

The Greens haven't polled well at all, actually. I'd go with deeppink for the SP trading as AAA and fuchsia for the SWP trading as PBP (if nothing else yellow is impossible to read). Navy seems appropriate for Renua as a more right-wing splinter of the Irish Tory Party, and the Social Democrats are using purple (and they're not all ex-Labour).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh I know the greens haven't polled well at all, I meant the minor parties as a collective. (I think the Greens could grab a seat or two - Ryan almost got into the European Parliament last year)

[Green Line]

What are the chances of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail Coalition?  Labour has recovered from their depths in recent months but if they fall again is it possible the two center right parties will team up despite their historical animosity to keep out Gerry Adams? I can't see Fianna Fail ever willing to be the junior partner is a coalition.

At the same time is there any real talk about a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein deal?  Thats probably Michael Martin's only shot at becoming Taoiseach at this rate

[Cassius]

What are the chances of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail Coalition?  Labour has recovered from their depths in recent months but if they fall again is it possible the two center right parties will team up despite their historical animosity to keep out Gerry Adams? I can't see Fianna Fail ever willing to be the junior partner is a coalition.

At the same time is there any real talk about a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein deal?  Thats probably Michael Martin's only shot at becoming Taoiseach at this rate

Whilst I'm no expert on Irish politics, I imagine that a coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail would likely destroy the latter for good, given that, based off the current polls, it's unlikely that FF would be the larger party in a putative coalition. However, given the historical animosity between the two parties and their supporters, I find it unlikely that the two could form a coalition anyway.

[Green Line]

What are the chances of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail Coalition?  Labour has recovered from their depths in recent months but if they fall again is it possible the two center right parties will team up despite their historical animosity to keep out Gerry Adams? I can't see Fianna Fail ever willing to be the junior partner is a coalition.

At the same time is there any real talk about a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein deal?  Thats probably Michael Martin's only shot at becoming Taoiseach at this rate

Whilst I'm no expert on Irish politics, I imagine that a coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail would likely destroy the latter for good, given that, based off the current polls, it's unlikely that FF would be the larger party in a putative coalition. However, given the historical animosity between the two parties and their supporters, I find it unlikely that the two could form a coalition anyway.

The Irish party system really is a strange and complex thing.  After studying it for some months I still dont really understand what substantive differences FF and FG have with each other.  FF just seems to oppose everything FG does reflexively because history.

[ObserverIE]

What are the chances of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail Coalition?  Labour has recovered from their depths in recent months

Only to the extent of moving from 5-6% to 7-8%.

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Certainly FG are not going to play second fiddle to their social inferiors.

[Cassius]

What are the chances of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail Coalition?  Labour has recovered from their depths in recent months but if they fall again is it possible the two center right parties will team up despite their historical animosity to keep out Gerry Adams? I can't see Fianna Fail ever willing to be the junior partner is a coalition.

At the same time is there any real talk about a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein deal?  Thats probably Michael Martin's only shot at becoming Taoiseach at this rate

Whilst I'm no expert on Irish politics, I imagine that a coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail would likely destroy the latter for good, given that, based off the current polls, it's unlikely that FF would be the larger party in a putative coalition. However, given the historical animosity between the two parties and their supporters, I find it unlikely that the two could form a coalition anyway.

The Irish party system really is a strange and complex thing.  After studying it for some months I still dont really understand what substantive differences FF and FG have with each other.  FF just seems to oppose everything FG does reflexively because history.

Well, from what I can gather there was traditionally (I'm not so sure now given the enormous ructions the Irish political system has undergone over the last 6 years or so) a big difference between the base of support for the two parties; most obviously, whether they were in favour of the Treaty or not, but also class differences (Fine Gael's support traditionally being stronger amongst the middle classes and the big farmers, whilst Fianna Gail having a more working class and small farmer base of support). Also, I would argue that 'history' shouldn't be discounted as a reason to support a particular party or vice versa; after all, if my ancestors had yours shot up against a wall, would you be inclined to support my political party (especially given that such things are still, jut about, within living memory)?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

the new Social Democrats, a centre-left split of dissident Ex-labour TD's.

Does this 3 (wo)man band have any potential?

EDIT: I can see they advocate "the Nordic model". Is that sellable in Ireland? (

The Nordic Model has long been held up as something to aspire to in the more liberal parts of the Irish media and establishment (The Irish Times and elements of the Labour Party in particular). However the Nordic Model requires not just nationalized service free at use but also higher taxes and in particular here, indirect taxes and if there is one thing we have learnt in the last year is that Irish working class really don't like indirect taxes. Water charges in particular have become the issue in the Irish political landscape at the moment and the whole left - including the Soc Dems - wants to abolish them. It would be difficult to see how they could square both ambitions and how they would approach it. In short I expect them to run more on a platform of being the respectable left (i.e. not the shinners or the hard left) with some nods towards political reform.

On that note, I will also that one of the major blocking points towards any Nordic model would be the intense localism of Irish politics and the patronage system which the electoral system and the attitude of the electorate encourage. Welfare spending would have to be more rationalized. Nods in that direction are quite common these days but nobody really knows what to do about it, but expect the Soc Dems to run on this and transparency issues. As for their prospects, I would wait until they get to run along with the triumvirate but, while I would expect two of their three incumbents to hold on easily (Murphy and Donnelly... Shortall has a struggle probably), I wouldn't be that optimistic.

Oh I know the greens haven't polled well at all, I meant the minor parties as a collective. (I think the Greens could grab a seat or two - Ryan almost got into the European Parliament last year)

Ryan is running in Dublin Bay South (i.e. Dublin South East) and he has a good chance, I think, but it will be a squeeze with FG and Renua seemingly certain to make it leaving two others, one of which I would still back Labour to hold (if Labour don't hold a seat here they might not win any anywhere). However this was always one of FF's weakest seats even before 2011 and it's not good territory for Sinn Fein either, so it is certainly possible. As for any other seats, I would be skeptical quite frankly (the boundary changes really don't suit them), perhaps with the right candidate they could win a seat in Dublin Fingal but who is that candidate? and even then it wouldn't be certain. Here, however, I would like to remind you that it's a waste of time predicting Irish elections until you know who all the candidates are, and I really mean ALL.

[Јas]

To give some context for the thread - below are the most recent polls (with links to the full released results) and the results of the 2011 General for comparison.

	GE	RedC	MB	B&A
	2011	28 June	28 June	18 July
Fine Gael	36	28	29	24
Labour	19	7	6	8
Fianna Fáil	17	20	23	18
Sinn Féin	10	18	21	17
Green	2	2	1	1
Renua	-	1	1	1
Socialist	1	0	2	NI
People Before Profit	1	NI	1	NI
i/O	13	24*	16	30

^NI Not specifically included in poll results
* Broken down as 23 for Independents, 1 for Other

[Cassius]

Is there any particular reason as to why Fianna Fáil are polling a little bit better (and ahead of Sinn Fein) than they were a few months ago?

[Green Line]

Is there any particular reason as to why Fianna Fáil are polling a little bit better (and ahead of Sinn Fein) than they were a few months ago?

I think Sinn Feinn lost a little bit of its support after the furor over the water charges died down. They were riding high before then. Some of their support probably shifted back to FF, who was only half heartedly opposing the water charges.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Is there any particular reason as to why Fianna Fáil are polling a little bit better (and ahead of Sinn Fein) than they were a few months ago?

I think Sinn Feinn lost a little bit of its support after the furor over the water charges died down. They were riding high before then. Some of their support probably shifted back to FF, who was only half heartedly opposing the water charges.

Actually both Sinn Fein's and Fianna Fail's support is fairly stable and most of the movement within the margin of error. Ditto with Labour. It is Fine Gael and the Others who are seeing the most movement.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Huh, Fianna Fail are coming up with a Basic Income policy of all things. I suppose they're tacking to the left?

[ObserverIE]

Huh, Fianna Fail are coming up with a Basic Income policy of all things. I suppose they're tacking to the left?

There isn't any room to the right of Fine Gael economically so FF end up as lefties in comparison.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In their infinite wisdom, Fianna Fáil are adding Sean Haughey back into the Dublin Bay North mix; in what looks like an explosive mixture of egos,nincluding (so far) Haughey, the FF councillor he was beaten by, tobacco loving commie Finian McGrath, jilted Fianna Fáil senator Averil Power, a sitting Labour Minister of State, ex-Labour TD Tommy Broughan, a former Fine Garl Lord Mayor of Dublin, Richard Bruton the FG minister who attempted to oust Enda Kenny in 2010 and a Renua TD. How do you fit all that lot in a five-seater?

[ObserverIE]

In their infinite wisdom, Fianna Fáil are adding Sean Haughey back into the Dublin Bay North mix; in what looks like an explosive mixture of egos,nincluding (so far) Haughey, the FF councillor he was beaten by, tobacco loving commie Finian McGrath, jilted Fianna Fáil senator Averil Power, a sitting Labour Minister of State, ex-Labour TD Tommy Broughan, a former Fine Garl Lord Mayor of Dublin, Richard Bruton the FG minister who attempted to oust Enda Kenny in 2010 and a Renua TD. How do you fit all that lot in a five-seater?

You don't.

FF are being pragmatic here; Haughey is the best-known candidate and is the most likely to win them a seat.

SF will also be aiming for a seat here (although they may not be helped by a gender-balanced two-candidate ticket) as will be the two factions of the Alphabet Left. Power may get media coverage (being married to the editor of a national newspaper helps in that) but is unlikely to figure for the seat share-out. The Labour minister mentioned above is the perpetually-anguished and hyper-politically correct Aodhán Ó Ríordáin.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

In their infinite wisdom, Fianna Fáil are adding Sean Haughey back into the Dublin Bay North mix; in what looks like an explosive mixture of egos,nincluding (so far) Haughey, the FF councillor he was beaten by, tobacco loving commie Finian McGrath, jilted Fianna Fáil senator Averil Power, a sitting Labour Minister of State, ex-Labour TD Tommy Broughan, a former Fine Garl Lord Mayor of Dublin, Richard Bruton the FG minister who attempted to oust Enda Kenny in 2010 and a Renua TD. How do you fit all that lot in a five-seater?

You forgot Sinn Fein who should really win a seat here (if they don't, they've had a really bad election). Apart from SF, Bruton is the only other near certainty to win so who will get the other three will certainly be interesting

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Just a question about preferences - do most voters fully rank every single candidate? What are the sort of "typical" ballot orders for your average votes?

[ObserverIE]

Just a question about preferences - do most voters fully rank every single candidate?

From tallying at last year's local elections, the answer is No. I would expect maybe half to two-thirds of candidates to be ranked on the average ballot paper. You will get a good many "plumpers" who will only preference a small number of candidates.

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Intra-party transfers are much less strong than they used to be. SF and the Alphabet Left (when they're running more than one candidate) tend to be very loyal in terms of keeping their initial transfers within the party, other parties much less so. (FF traditionally would also have had a high degree of transfer loyalty, but it weakened during the Ahern years.) A lot of voters will transfer to other candidates from the same geographical area ahead of more distant party running-mates.

[Cassius]

Apparently Ruarí Quinn went on a bit of a mad one at a Labour party think in.

[ObserverIE]

Rumour going round (started by Ivan Yates, ex-FG minister and radio host on DinnyNewstalk) of the election being called for November 20 so as to avoid the inevitable winter cluster over issues like the state of hospitals.

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http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/confirmed-candidates-for-next-general_3.html

Cool maps I founded the nominated candidates so far. Also the two major trot groups have merged, or something?