Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Kevinstat]

Also:

Oooohh!! Aaaaghhh!! Scary left-wingers!!!

Labour. We're desperate.

Can someone tell me who the people in that picture are (besides Gerry Adams, which was obvious, although I'm sure most if not all of them were just as obvious to the Irish Forumites) and what party each belong to?  If the only parties represented were Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil (it looks like Adams's groom in the picture might be FF leader Micheál Martin), it could be more anti-Sinn Féin (with the implication that Fianna Fáil might govern with them, and perhaps bringing up Fianna Fáil's "Sinn Féin-lite" past (thinking of Charles Haughey here)) than anti-leftist.  But the woman in the picture looks like Clare Daly, and if she's in there than it's tough to see it as at least partly a "red scare" type ad (as opposed to just a "green scare" type ad, although perhaps the term "green scare" doesn't work as well in the Republic as in NI).  Is there anything controversial about any of the non-Shinners in the photo on the "green" front?

[ObserverIE]

Also:

Oooohh!! Aaaaghhh!! Scary left-wingers!!!

Labour. We're desperate.

Can someone tell me who the people in that picture are (besides Gerry Adams, which was obvious, although I'm sure most if not all of them were just as obvious to the Irish Forumites) and what party each belong to?  If the only parties represented were Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil (it looks like Adams's groom in the picture might be FF leader Micheál Martin), it could be more anti-Sinn Féin (with the implication that Fianna Fáil might govern with them, and perhaps bringing up Fianna Fáil's "Sinn Féin-lite" past (thinking of Charles Haughey here)) than anti-leftist.  But the woman in the picture looks like Clare Daly, and if she's in there than it's tough to see it as at least partly a "red scare" type ad (as opposed to just a "green scare" type ad, although perhaps the term "green scare" doesn't work as well in the Republic as in NI).  Is there anything controversial about any of the non-Shinners in the photo on the "green" front?

From left to right (physically speaking), it's Richard Boyd Barrett (SWP t/a PBP), Paul Murphy (SP t/a AAA), Adams, Martin, Worzel GummidgeMick Wallace, and apparently a waxwork of Clare Daly.

It's meant to be both a "green scare" (for both shades of green) and a "red scare". This is Irish Labour we're talking about here, after all, a party whose highest ambition is to spend the next five years as FG's doormat.

[ObserverIE]

RTÉ's election website here.

[Јas]

We're probably now under or around 40 days out from the election.

So with 40 constituencies, maybe we can try and take a look at one a day until polling? Let's find out...

First up - Carlow-Kilkenny.

Candidates

Fine Gael	Pat Deering TD, Cllr. David Fitzgerald, John Paul Phelan TD
Labour	Ann Phelan TD
Fianna Fáil	Bobby Aylward TD, John McGuinness TD, Cllr. Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor
Sinn Féin	Cllr. Kathleen Funchion
AAA-PBP	Conor MacLiam, Adrienne Wallace
Renua	Cllr. Patrick McKee
SocDems	-
Green	Cllr. Malcolm Noonan
Indepenents	Noel Walsh, Paddy Manning

Carlow-Kilkenny is one of the few constituencies to see no boundary change, nor a loss of representation since the last election in 2011.

In 2011, it split 3 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF - good vote management by FG maximised their returns, and too many candidates from FF helped squeeze them to but one. Their affected candidate, Bobby Aylward, won the by-election in the constituency last year caused by the movement of Phil Hogan from the cabinet to the European Commission.

This time, I doubt anyone believes FG could take 3 seats. Phelan should be the safest of the three - it seems to me a pretty close call between Deering and Fitzgerald for the other seat.

FF only need to do marginally better than 2011 to hold two seats - and the general polling indicates that they should manage just that. It will be interesting to see if their vote management improves this time.

Labour have historically done well in Carlow-Kilkenny - and despite losing seats, IIRC the party overperformed in the local elections compared with Labour in the rest of the country. To have any chance, Phelan will need to transfer very well from the minor left-ish candidates and from geographically nearby candidates. A tall order.

Kathleen Funchion (SF) is running for the Dáil for the fourth time - building her vote each time, getting to 16% in the by-election last year, pretty much exactly what will be needed this time. I doubt she'll match it in the general, but 10-12% looks perfectly plausible and probably good enough to suck in enough transfers to get through.

Of the others, Malcolm Noonan is one of the longest standing Green county councillors in the country - holding his since since 2004. Though the Greens took a seat here in 2007, Noonan would need some freakish luck to make it this time.

Patrick McKee defected to Renua from FF last year and won 9.5% of the vote in the by-election. I suspect he benefited from heightened attention for Renua at the time and would do well to hold that level of support. I doubt he can gather the necessary transfers to be truly competitive - but then there's not much data to go on here.

I would wonder whether a good single AAA-PBP candidate would have been able to outpoll the Greens and maybe push ahead of Phelan to give them a perfectly credible result. As it is they seem to have cemented their status as also-rans.

The constituency has never returned an independent TD - and it doesn't look like breaking that streak is at all likely this time either. Noel Walsh, running on an anti-cronyism platform, has a personal best of 0.36% from his previous two efforts to get elected. Paddy Manning, known for campaigning on pro-life and anti-marriage equality issues, is the other indie.


RTÉ prediction: 2 FG, 2 FF, 1 SF
Irish Times prediction: 2 FG, 2 FF, 1 Lab
Jas prediction: 2 FG (Phelan, Deering), 2 FF (McGuinness, Aylward), 1 SF (Funchion)

[ObserverIE]

Phelan should be the safest of the three - it seems to me a pretty close call between Deering and Fitzgerald for the other seat.

Deering has less competition in Carlow - only FF's Murnane-O'Connor and the SWP's Wallace.

[DC Al Fine]

How do parties decide how many candidates to run? It looks like there is a trade off between running enough people to win additional seats and 'leakage' in preferencing.

Also, is there much competition between candidates of the same party?

[ObserverIE]

How do parties decide how many candidates to run? It looks like there is a trade off between running enough people to win additional seats and 'leakage' in preferencing.

As a rough rule of thumb: (number of secure quotas) + 1, although larger parties may often run extra candidates in a constituency which is geographically large or with a number of poles of attraction, e.g. in Carlow-Kilkenny the poles are Carlow, Kilkenny city/north Kilkenny, and south Kilkenny and the two traditional large parties are running candidates in each of those regions (Deering/Murnane-O'Connor, Fitzgerald/McGuinness, Phelan/Aylward).

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https://books.google.ie/books?id=26_5_BQ_auoC&pg=PA145&lpg=PA145&dq=battle+of+tang+o%27rourke+reynolds&source=bl&ots=ncr_be50C1&sig=3fNF8vw7qOptc8ROiAEAijd-qtI&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=battle%20of%20tang%20o%27rourke%20reynolds&f=false

Quite a bit...

[Јas]

Day 2... Cavan-Monaghan

Candidates

Fine Gael	Heather Humphreys TD, Joe O'Reilly TD
Labour	-
Fianna Fáil	Mike Durkan, Brendan Smith TD, Cllr. Niamh Smyth
Sinn Féin	Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin TD, Sen. Kathryn Reilly
AAA-PBP	-
Renua	-
SocDems	-
Green	Micheál Callaghan
Direct Democracy	Michael McDermott
Indepenents	Sean Conlan TD, Jimmy Mee, John Wilson

Cavan-Monaghan loses a substantial part of west Cavan to the Sligo-Leitrim constituency, and with it one of its seats to become a 4-seater constituency.

In 2011, it split 3 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF - FG gaining 3 seats on 39% of the vote, SF got 1 seat from 26% of the vote, and FF 1 seat from 20% of the vote.

FG are down to 2 candidates, from 4 last time, losing their third candidate when the increasingly scandal-prone Sean Conlan left the party recently. Minister for the Arts, Heritage and the Gaeltacht, Heather Humphries shouldn't face any difficulties in re-election. Now having the Monaghan FG vote to herself, she will also take votes from Cootehill in Cavan, and as the most prominant (maybe only?) Protestant on the ballot, will pick up votes elsewhere in Cavan ahead of her running-mate. Indeed, I suspect her relative strength and the loss of west Cavan might make things more uncomfortable than they should be for Joe O'Reilly.

Conlan himself I presume has seen the writing on the wall for some time. Whatever chance he has (and I suspect it's not much at all), he is probably correct that he'll get a better return as an indie than under the FG flag.

SF's Ó Caoláin has been solidly returned each time since 1997. The question is whether the party can seriously push for the second seat with 27 year old Senator Kathryn Reilly. Cavan is a more difficult hunting ground for SF than Monaghan - they'll need excellent vote management, and string transfers from the also-rans to stand a chance.

FF's Brendan Smith should be straight-forwardly re-elected. Formerly a stronghold constituency for the party - their resilience in Cavan was reasonably impressive in the 2014 local elections, but it won't be enough to seriously contest for a second seat. Such is the party's difficulties that finding a second candidate was a difficult enough chore. Just about all their sitting councillors in Monaghan ruled themselves out - and their search for a female Monaghan based candidate proved in vain. In the end they've gone with party activist Mike Durkan from Clones (Monaghan), and local election poll-topper Niamh Smyth in Cavan - one presumes at least in part with the gender quota in mind. 

Being one of the most conservative constituencies in the country, Labour, the Social Democrats and the Alphabet Left have decided to save their deposits. The Greens are planning to run in every constituency - and Cavan-Monaghan should be a contender for one of their weakest returns.

Renua's "pro-family, pro-life" candidate was essentially deselected in December after allegedly making homophobic comments online.

Of the indies, Cavan-based John Wilson might be the most likely contender. The nephew of a former FF Government Minister - and indeed brother to a sitting FF Senator, his came to public attention  from the garda whistleblower controversy.

Jimmy Mee is Monaghan-based and is known for charity fundraising. His priorities are hospitals, student grants, and rural crime. He's unlikely to trouble the election count staff too much.

Finally, there is Michael McDermott of Direct Democracy Ireland. Their wiki page gives the background on them. Mr McDermott was active in opposing the introduction of water charges in Cavan. DDI's record polling return so far is 6.5% in the 2013 Meath East by-election. I don't expect any of their candidates to reach those dizzying heights this time out.


RTÉ prediction: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF, and 1 FG-SF toss-up
Irish Times prediction: 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF
Jas prediction: 2 FG (Humphries, O'Reilly), 1 SF (Ó Caoláin), 1 FF (Smith)

[ObserverIE]

Cavan-Monaghan loses a substantial part of East Cavan to the Sligo-Leitrim constituency, and with it one of its seats to become a 4-seater constituency.

West and a substantial bit of mid-Cavan actually, going in a drunken line from Lough Gowna on the Longford border up to beyond Belturbet on the Fermanagh border.

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He still has the rest of Cavan to himself where he had to share it with a west Cavan candidate (McVitty) last time. He's also spent enough time cultivating the Hibernian vote in Cavan to be able to appeal to a certain element of FG voter in Monaghan.

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Smith actually loses his home territory in the Panhandle and may be vulnerable to Smyth in Cavan (this is going to confuse the hell out of outsiders) and if Durkan is a complete unknown she might be able to pick up votes across the border in south Monaghan (though you would be a better judge of that than I).

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Calling the Pope "the Antichrist" was a bit too off-the-wall for even the most conservative mainstream Catholics.

[Јas]

Next up... Clare

Candidates

Fine Gael	Pat Breen TD, Joe Carey TD, Cllr. Mary Howard
Labour	Michael McNamara TD
Fianna Fáil	Cllr. Clare Colleran-Molloy, Timmy Dooley TD, Michael McDonagh
Sinn Féin	Noeleen Moran
AAA-PBP	-
Renua	-
SocDems	-
Green	Fergal Smith
Fís Nua	Niamh O’Brien
Indepenents	Cllr. Ian Lynch, Richard Cahill, Cllr. Ann Norton, Michael Harty

Clare remains unchanged as a 4-seater constituency this time out.

In 2011, FG took 2 seats on 42% of the vote; FF got 1 on 22%; and Labour 1 on 15%. The rest of the vote was split between one strong independent and many other also-rans.

FG run their two incumbents again here, along with their only elected female county councillor in the constituency. They decidedly did not select either of their local Senators - with one's thoughts about running for Renua instead seemingly having failed to be enough to get onto the ticket. I'd be surprised if both incumbents don't get returned - though I note the Irish Times is predicting against it.

For FF, incumbent Timmy Dooley is a near certainty to be returned. Running alongside him are Clare GAA Chairman Michael McDonagh, and FF's only elected female county councillor Clare Colleran-Molloy. One suspects McDonagh is the one to watch of the two.

"Maverick" Labour TD Michael McNamara seeks re-election too. He lost the party whip over the sale of Aer Lingus, but was welcomed back just in time for nomination. Both RTÉ and the Irish Times seem to regard him as touch and go for a seat - I don't really see it happening though, barring something of a surge in Labour polling generally.

SF run Noeleen Moran who failed to get elected to the council in 2014. Clare has historically been a weak territory for SF and I don't see that changing - though again the pundits seem to be talking up Ms Moran's chances.

There is still talk of a potential Renua candidate emerging here - but no sign of one as of yet.

Of the others, Clare has the potential to return an independent. Former TD James Breen - who has been competitive here in the past 3 elections has declined to run this time. Two sitting councillors Ann Norton, a disability campaigner, and Ian Lynch, formerly of FG, have an established political base and could do well - but I suspect that Dr. Michael Harty might do best of these. He's running on the issue of the decreasing number of rural-based doctors.


RTÉ prediction: 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab/i/FF/SF
Irish Times prediction: 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 i
Jas prediction: 2 FG (Breen, Carey), 1 FF (Dooley), 1 i (Harty)

[Јas]

Cavan-Monaghan loses a substantial part of East Cavan to the Sligo-Leitrim constituency, and with it one of its seats to become a 4-seater constituency.

West and a substantial bit of mid-Cavan actually, going in a drunken line from Lough Gowna on the Longford border up to beyond Belturbet on the Fermanagh border.

*facepalm*
Indeed. Merging east Cavan with Sligo-Leitrim would be quite a proposition.

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Smith actually loses his home territory in the Panhandle and may be vulnerable to Smyth in Cavan (this is going to confuse the hell out of outsiders) and if Durkan is a complete unknown she might be able to pick up votes across the border in south Monaghan (though you would be a better judge of that than I).

Smith has tried to make himself more visible around Monaghan himself - especially during the past few months when no apparent Monaghan based candidate could be found.

This is one battle though that I won't be able to offer any real judgment on until later into the campaign.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Great to have you back Jas

However, I will say so far from your predictions I think you might be a bit optimistic for FF and a bit too pessimistic for FG. Fianna Fail are polling little better than in 2011 once the MoE is taken into account and their by-election record was atrocious. Even their supposed HISTORIC COMEBACK(tm) during the locals is imho exaggerated by the lack of non-FF/FG candidates in many rural counties and a stronger focus on local issues than they will be in the GE (plus a greater incumbency factor than there will be this time around). Fine Gael on the other hand have the advantage of the stability card and being the only possible government party after all is said and done and I would not underestimate that fact.

I'll do my predictions later when the date is announced and when the deadline for candidates to come forward has passed. At this point I will go for approximate figures: FG ~70 FF ~23 SF ~22 LAB ~8 IND/OTH ~35.

Also Jas, what do you think of John Wilson's chances on your turf? He strikes me as the sort of candidate who will (most likely) pick up a thousand or so votes and disappear in the middle counts or (far less likely) top the poll and get well over a quota on the first count.

[Јas]

Cork East

Candidates

Fine Gael	Tom Barry TD, Cllr. Noel McCarthy, David Stanton TD
Labour	Sean Sherlock TD
Fianna Fáil	Barbara Ahern, Cllr. Kevin O’Keeffe
Sinn Féin	Cllr. Pat Buckley
AAA-PBP	Ciara Leonardi Roche
Renua	Sen. Paul Bradford
SocDems	Ken Curtin
Green	Natasha Harty
Indepenents	Cllr. Claire Cullinane, Cllr. Mary Linehan Foley, Cllr. Kieran McCarthy

Cork East's boundaries remain unchanged and it retains its 4 seats for this election.

In 2011, FG took 2 seats on 37% of the vote; Labour 1 on 31%; and Sinn Féin 1 seat on 11%. Fianna Fáil's 17% split between two candidates got them nothing.

That FG run their incumbents again is unsurprising, their 3rd candidate is of interest though. Last October, Fermoy-based Cllr. Noel McCarthy left the Labour Party and he was expected to contest the election as an independent - however by end November he had secured a place on FG's ticket. He had a very strong local election, topping the poll in Fermoy, and can expect to impact on both  Labour's Sean Sherlock vote, and that of Mallow-based Tom Barry. David Stanton looks safe enough at the other end of the constituency.

Fianna Fáil are running Barbara Ahern and Cllr. Kevin O'Keefe - both children of the former Fianna Fáil TDs for the constituency. To get a seat, FF should need only a quite marginal improvement on 2011 - and have good transfer flow between their candidates.

Sinn Féin hit an unusually rocky patch in Cork East last year. Sitting TD Sandra McLellan won't be contesting re-election following an intra-party squabble resulting in the loss of 2 councillors - one of whom, Cobh-based Kevin McCarthy, will be contesting the election as an independent. The outcome might just be a rare SF loss of a seat.

Labour's Sean Sherlock is likely to see his party vote share collapse, just like many of his party colleagues, but nonetheless he should be in contention for a seat at the end of the day.   

Senator, and former TD, Paul Bradford is running for the party led by his wife. While he might get a reasonable number of votes, getting elected would appear quite unlikely.

RTÉ prediction: 1 FG + any 3 of Lab, SF, Renua, or either FF candidate.
Irish Times prediction: 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 i
Jas prediction: 1 FG (Stanton), 1 FF (O'Keefe), 1 Lab (Sherlock), 1 SF (Buckley)

[Јas]

Great to have you back Jas

Thanks

However, I will say so far from your predictions I think you might be a bit optimistic for FF and a bit too pessimistic for FG. Fianna Fail are polling little better than in 2011 once the MoE is taken into account and their by-election record was atrocious. Even their supposed HISTORIC COMEBACK(tm) during the locals is imho exaggerated by the lack of non-FF/FG candidates in many rural counties and a stronger focus on local issues than they will be in the GE (plus a greater incumbency factor than there will be this time around). Fine Gael on the other hand have the advantage of the stability card and being the only possible government party after all is said and done and I would not underestimate that fact.

Yeah, you're certainly right that FF's poll numbers are only a little better than in 2011 - though I do expect them to be less transfer-phobic than 5 years ago. The gains I'm putting them down for so far (subject to change, etc., etc.) in Carlow-Kilkenny and Cork East only require a quite modest improvement in their fortunes. I'm honestly not sure yet how many seats I think they're worth overall yet. I agree that their much-touted 2014 Locals is overstated in significance.

I appreciate that FG's message will be all about stability - and that this will resonate with particular parts of the electorate - but I do wonder how easy a sell that will be when they can't hope to win a majority and its highly questionable whether the Labour party will be in a position to prop them up.

Also Jas, what do you think of John Wilson's chances on your turf? He strikes me as the sort of candidate who will (most likely) pick up a thousand or so votes and disappear in the middle counts or (far less likely) top the poll and get well over a quota on the first count.

At present, I suspect the former is quite a bit more likely than the latter. Maybe later in the campaign I'll re-assess.

[ObserverIE]

Even their supposed HISTORIC COMEBACK(tm) during the locals is imho exaggerated by the lack of non-FF/FG candidates in many rural counties and a stronger focus on local issues than they will be in the GE (plus a greater incumbency factor than there will be this time around).

On the first point, there was generally no shortage of non-FF/FG candidates (mainly independents) in most rural counties.

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It will, I think, simply be that FG and Lab will have p*ssed off enough voters for FF to be relatively less toxic than they were in 2011 and that in itself should move them to the high twenties/low thirties without much of an improvement in their own vote. 22-23 strikes me as being much too low. I'd give them the two seats Jas has pencilled in already plus Sligo-Leitrim, Kerry, Tipperary, Waterford, the two Meath seats, Dublin Bay North and Dublin Fingal as an absolute minimum, although they'll most likely lose a seat gained through defection in Galway East.

[Јas]

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/miriam-lord-taoiseach-drops-hints-as-d%C3%A1il-s-end-nears-1.2511558

[ObserverIE]

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/miriam-lord-taoiseach-drops-hints-as-d%C3%A1il-s-end-nears-1.2511558

It would, of course, massively inconvenience students and young people working away from home to hold the election on a Thursday rather than a Friday.

Students or the sheepskin-coat-and-brandy brigade? Which group is more likely to vote for the Blueshirts?

[ObserverIE]

(Perchance this may be why Cork NW is the only constituency the Communist Party of Ireland has nominated a candidate for so far...)

How dare you question the hunger of the oppressed masses of Rockchapel and Millstreet to be liberated from the chains of capitalism and express their unbridled solidarity with the glorious liberation struggle of Red Donbass.

(The CPI make the KKE look like a bunch of backsliding Blairites.)

[Kevinstat]

Cork NC remains a 4 seater but has seen some boundary changes since 2011 - gaining 17,000 voters within Cork city from Cork SC, and losing 5,000 rural voters to Cork NW. The constituency is pretty evenly split between city proper and Cork county - many in the rural part of the constituency are obviously commuters into the city.

Cork NW is a 3-seater constituency and has gained 5,000 urban voters from Cork NC on the last boundary review. It remains though very much a large rural constituency.

Rural or urban in relation to the constituency as a whole, I take it.  (I know you wrote rural in your Cork NC writeup as it was in the (administrative) Cork County portion.)

Might the shifts of people/territory from Cork SC to Cork NC, and from Cork NC to Cork NW be shifts that (by themselves and together) increase the urban-ness (maybe very slightly for some of them) of all constituencies involved?  Two Will Rogers shifts, as it were?  (He once said something about someone moving from one place to another and either raising or lowering (I think raising) the intelligence of both places.)

[ObserverIE]

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Calling the Pope "the Antichrist" was a bit too off-the-wall for even the most conservative mainstream Catholics.

According to this week's Anglo-Celt, she's back in the race as an independent.

[ObserverIE]

Cork NC remains a 4 seater but has seen some boundary changes since 2011 - gaining 17,000 voters within Cork city from Cork SC, and losing 5,000 rural voters to Cork NW. The constituency is pretty evenly split between city proper and Cork county - many in the rural part of the constituency are obviously commuters into the city.

Cork NW is a 3-seater constituency and has gained 5,000 urban voters from Cork NC on the last boundary review. It remains though very much a large rural constituency.

Rural or urban in relation to the constituency as a whole, I take it.  (I know you wrote rural in your Cork NC writeup as it was in the (administrative) Cork County portion.)

Might the shifts of people/territory from Cork SC to Cork NC, and from Cork NC to Cork NW be shifts that (by themselves and together) increase the urban-ness (maybe very slightly for some of them) of all constituencies involved?  Two Will Rogers shifts, as it were?  (He once said something about someone moving from one place to another and either raising or lowering (I think raising) the intelligence of both places.)

They're four rural electoral divisions (Kilshannig, Dromore, Kilcullen and Mountrivers) which were shifted from Cork North West to Cork North Central at the previous redrawing in 2007 so they're essentially going back home. The northern end of Dromore is near Mallow and it contains a couple of large villages (by Irish standards) but the others seem to be very rural. They might be the outer reaches of Cork city commuter territory, I suppose, but that's about the height of it.

http://census.cso.ie/sapmap/

[Јas]

The Irish Times got IpsosMRBI to run a number of focus groups which I thought made interesting reading. It contains little of solace for the Labour party.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2016-what-irish-voters-really-think-1.2515570

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Gully's Predictions for those seats (too lazy to go into detail):

Carlow-Kilkenny 3FG 1FF 1SF
Cavan-Monaghan 2FG 1FF 1SF
Clare 2FG 1FF 1IND
Cork East 2FG 1LAB 1SF
Cork North Central 1FG 1FF 1SF 1AAA
Cork North West 2FG 1IND
Cork South Central 2FG 1FF 1SF
Cork South West 2FG 1IND

EDIT now that you mention it:
Donegal 1FG 1FF 2SF 1IND

[ObserverIE]

The Irish Times got IpsosMRBI to run a number of focus groups which I thought made interesting reading. It contains little of solace for the Labour party.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2016-what-irish-voters-really-think-1.2515570

"C2DEs" make up about 40% of the electorate (if not of Irish Times readers). Labour have pissed them off economically, while being taken for granted by the section of society who have benefited from the recovery.

Labour are also about to learn what Christian Solidarity/Christian Centrist/Comhar Críostaí have learnt over the last two decades - there are feck all votes to be won in the culture wars.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

But I will go into detail about my own constituency, Jas is of course still permitted to write on it later meanwhile I will steal his format :

Dublin Rathdown

Candidates
Fine Gael   Alan Shatter TD, Cllr. Josepha Madigan
Labour   Alex White TD
Fianna Fáil   Sen. Mary White
Sinn Féin   Cllr. Sorcha Nic Cormaic
AAA-PBP   -
Renua   -
SocDems   -
Green   Cllr. Catherine Martin
Indepenent Alliance     Shane Ross TD
Indepenents    Peter Matthews TD

Dublin Rathdown is a new constituency formed mostly from the old Dublin South. In Dublin one of the aims of the Constituency Commission when redrawing the map as to adjust to a 158 seat Dail was to make the constituencies correspond better to the boundaries of county councils. This is a somewhat odd decision as nobody considers themselves a 'Dun Laoghaire-Rathdownite' or a 'Fingallian'. Even more ridiculous is South Dublin county council as most of the area that is popularly referred to as 'South Dublin' is actually not in the county council area at all but rather in Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown. Either way as the commission created four county agglomerations like the new Sligo-Leitrim(-South Donegal-East Cavan) constituencies in Dublin old constituency boundaries crossing county council boundaries were eliminated. In the case of the old Dublin South this meant the loss of the Rathfarnham Ward (which is in County South Dublin) with its more than 30,000 electorate to Dublin South West. While to balance the Dun Laoghaire constituency and make sure it had enough voters for 4 seats parts of Foxrock and Cabinteely in the east of the constituency were moved over to its neighbour. What remained of Dublin South was then for some reason renamed 'Dublin Rathdown' and reduced from 5 seats to 3.

This new constituency consists precisely of three wards of Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown county council: Dundrum, Stillorgan, and Glencullen-Sandyford (the other three wards of DLR: Blackrock, Dun Laoghaire, and Killiney-Shankill are what the Dun Laoghaire constituency consists of) showing the constituency commission's commitment to a nice correspondence between electoral wards and constituency boundaries, something they weren't so keen on elsewhere. In the 2014 local elections the three wards of Dublin Rathdown elected all together 5 Fine Gael councillors, 4 each for Fianna Fail, Labour, and Independents, 2 Sinn Feiners, and 1 Green. This was in comparison to the rest of the country a good result for Labour and in Glencullen-Sandyford (i.e. my ward) they found one of their two wards in the country where one of the candidates topped the poll. This however should give Labour despair rather than hope as this is one of the most middle class and suburban regions of the country with a history of great weakness for the left in elections, while also consistency voting for the more 'liberal' and pro-European side in referendums. Only twice in the history of Dublin South did its voters elect a Labour TD, in the party's banner years of 1992 and 2011. However, the Greens won their first seat ever here in 1989. It was also long strong constituency for the PDs, with a PD TD consistently from 1987 to 2007 except 1989-1992. Otherwise the other four seats usually went to Fine Gael and Fianna Fail equally although FG held the advantage in the Fitzgerald-Haughey era and Fianna Fail likewise in the Bertie era.

With this in mind it is noticeable therefore how very few candidates are running in this constituency, only eight in total, one of the lowest in the country (though not quite the lowest, only six are running in Laois!). Neither the Social Democrats nor Renua have put anyone forward for this constituency, even though both would have good prospects here relatively speaking. Meanwhile the People Before Profit Alliance did put forward Nicola Curry as their candidate here but she has since withdrew and the PBP have not nominated anyone else as a replacement.  Meanwhile there are only two independents running, both of whom - unusually - are incumbents. While the other six candidates are all also sitting politicians. There are overall 4 incumbent TDs, a senator, and three councillors fighting for these three seats. The other incumbent TD, Olivia Mitchell (FG), has retired.

Among analysts there is little doubt as to eventual location of two of the three available seats. While the final third one is seen as very much up in the air. I would share this analysis but with one caveat. There is little doubt that Shane Ross of the Independents Alliance is to be re-elected. In 2011 he nearly won 1.5 quotas as he was elected on the first count as has been since by far the most active and noticeable TD (at least in my neck of the woods). Despite the reputation that Dublin's Southside politics is somewhat 'different' to the rest of the country Ross has gained prominence doing the things all independent TDs do to get re-elected. That is to say, focus obsessively on local issues and campaigning for local interests. He has been particularly vocal on the closure of local police stations and amenities and is regularly found talking to locals about how to tackle crime which is apparently 'out of control' (when's it not?).

Unusually for such an independent TD though Ross has a national profile as a former stockbroker and business journalist, he is a commentator on banking issues and is perceived as keen as cutting down on what he sees as 'excessive' and 'wasteful' public spending by 'irresponsible' by public servants and unions (you know what that means). He is against flouridation of the water supply. Unusually for someone in the public domain in Ireland, he has a very strong Anglo-Irish accent. Recently he has come to notice for being the public face of the 'Independents Alliance' grouping a set of independents with no platform or goals other than getting Shane Ross into the cabinet who are running together to form a group in the Dail to promote 'independents' issues. Given that this grouping stretches from Ross to ex-Green TD Paul " you, Deputy Stagg" Gogarty to ex-Tankie and TD for Waterford John Halligan among many other local 'luminaries' it really is difficult to say how well it will hold together, especially if they, as is clearly an aim of Ross, make it into government.

The second seat will certainly go to Fine Gael. In 2011 in Dublin South they won 36% of the vote (i.e. in a three-seat constituency that's about 1.4 quotas) and were the largest party in 2014 locals in the three wards, which were fought under much more unfavourable circumstances for the government. Fine Gael are running two candidates, incumbent Alan Shatter, former Minister of Justice and TD since 1981 (except 2002-2007) and Stillorgan Councillor Josepha Madigan. Curiously both candidates afaik share the same background, lawyers who specialize in family law, which should probably tell you something about the local Fine Gael organization. It is widely assumed that Shatter will take this seat but while I think that is likely I would not be too sure of it. For a start, Shatter has lost out of his original voting base with the loss of the Rathfarnham ward to Dublin SW. Secondly, Shatter has never had much of personal vote with him usually trailing behind the now retired Olivia Mitchell at count time. A lot of that Mitchell vote (who did have a substantial personal vote) is now up for grabs and while it certainly would be strongly FG leaning obviously it doesn't follow it will fall into Alan Shatter's lap. It should here be noted that Alan Shatter only just won the FG nomination for the seat (there were gender quotas in force so there was to be one male and one female candidate, Shatter came up against a popular local councillor and only just won). Otoh, Councillor Madigan is a newbie on national issues and campaigning although in the Stillorgan region she has a much more solid base in the constituency. Fine Gael are pushing her presence hard (her posters are everywhere around here already) and her chances should not therefore be minimized.

The third seat is a bit more up in the air and many predictions, mostly bad ones, about what is seen as a very competitive race. For a start we can exclude any possibility of Sinn Fein or the Greens taking it. The Greens did hold a seat in Dublin South between 2002 and 2011 under the personage of Eamonn Ryan, now the leader of the Greens. But he has moved off to the greener(geddit?) more hopeful pastures of Dublin Bay South leaving their Deputy Leader and Dundrum councillor Catherine Martin to contest here instead. She is a good campaigner and charismatic but the Greens are still very much recovering from their 2011 wipeout and their experience of government with Fianna Fail and while they may make some impact they are basically out of the running in a seat where the quota will be so high and are unlikely to gain much from transfers. As for Sinn Fein, this is perhaps the seat least friendly to them in the whole country. In the 2011 Presidential election, Martin McGuinness recorded only 6.5% of the vote in Dublin South, his lowest in the country. I mention that as that map of McGuinness support is a good proxy for national Sinn Fein support (with a couple of caveats). Sinn Fein only elected their first councillors to Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown county council in 2014 and even still, unusually, trail Labour in number of councillors despite Labour's national whitewash at the last locals. I know little about their candidate, Dundrum Councillor Sorcha Nic Cormaic but the party has a lot of work to do to make any sort of impression here at the election. Most of their gains up to till have been in rough and depressed (and declining) working class areas and there is really little of those in this constituency. If Sinn Fein win the third seat here then they will have won about 60 nationally, and that isn't happening.


(cont)