Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Vosem]

Went with Dublin Rathdown, since that seems to be the most common one used and it makes things convenient for comparison's sake.

SF: 32 (!)
Peter Mathews 31
FG (Shatter) 30
FF 29
Green 27
FG (Madigan) 26
Labour 19
Shane Ross 0

Funnily enough, they have recorded Shane Ross's stance as 'equivocal' on every issue.

EDIT: Upon further review of his Wikipedia page I don't think I would be a big supporter of Shane Ross. "Promotes himself as standing up for small shareholders and consumers" sounds nice but doesn't excuse opposition to fluoridation and other such wacko positions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose I should pick somewhere random and rural... lets go with Carlow-Kilkenny.

Green: 35
AAA: 34
PBP: 33
Lab: 29
FF: 27
SF: 27
Renua: 23
FG: 22
Ind: 3

lol

[joevsimp]

I went for Clare as its my sister's name

Fis Nua (Niamh O'Brien) 33
Green 32
Sinn Fein 26
Fine Gael 22
Labour 22 (no comment)
Ind (Anne Norton) 21
Fianna Fail 18
Ind (Righard Cahill) 18
3 other Inds 6 each

It dosen't take it into account, but Cllr Norton is a big disability rights campaigner, so I think I would vote: green, norton, o'brian, then Labour if Im feeling charitable

might  try somewhere more urban as well

[Oakvale]

Funnily enough, in actuality I would probably first-preference Ross if I was voting in Dublin Rathdown. They for some reason have recorded his stance as 'equivocal' on every issue.

That is not surprising.

[Asian Nazi]

Galway West

AAA: 63
Green Party: 61
Independent (Mike Cubbard): 58
Independent (Tommy Roddy): 49
Sinn Fein: 49
Fianna Fail: 46
Social Democrats: 46
Direct Democracy Ireland: 43
Labour: 42
Fine Gail: 40
Independent (Noel Grealish): 37
Renua Ireland: 33

[joevsimp]

so I did Dublin Bay North as well since it has the broadest range

Green 31
Tommy Broughan 31
PBP 29
Averil Power 28
AAA 27
Labour 27
Sinn Fein 27
Finian McGrath 25
Paul Clarke 24
Jimmy Guerin 23
Social Democrats 23
Fine Gael 22
Direct Democracy 20
Fianna Fail 18
Renua 10


so I more or less know about Broughan and Power, but what actually is the deal with McGrath? Is he a Tankie? Stickie? What?

[ObserverIE]

so I more or less know about Broughan and Power, but what actually is the deal with McGrath? Is he a Tankie? Stickie? What?

Ex-Republican left and formerly associated with Tony Gregory, but pragmatic in practice - helped to prop up Ahern's last government.

[afleitch]

I have family in (and my family is from) Cavan-Monaghan so;

Fine Gael 21
Green 19
Sinn Fein 17
Fianna Fail 16

Candidate average. I hate independents running in elections so I ignored them.

[Jens]

Fun test - did a few different Dublin constituencies and got the Green candidate on top each time. But I've got some questions.
What is the deal with Irish Water? '
What's NAMA and JobBridge?
That hospital question. Is that about private hospitals or am I just being ignorant about the Irish healthcare system?
And that water metering deal. Is that based on the, for a Scandinavian, totally bizarre left-wing resistance against water feeds?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Fun test - did a few different Dublin constituencies and got the Green candidate on top each time. But I've got some questions.
What is the deal with Irish Water? '
What's NAMA and JobBridge?
That hospital question. Is that about private hospitals or am I just being ignorant about the Irish healthcare system?
And that water metering deal. Is that based on the, for a Scandinavian, totally bizarre left-wing resistance against water feeds?

Irish Water is a recently established (by the incumbent government) state-run company that is in charge of the water supplies throughout the entire country. Historically the management of water has left to the county councils, a situation which has regularly led to problems with the supplies, but has meant that water was and has been free at the point of use (i.e. for the overwhelming majority of consumers). As part of the government's financial restructuring following the 2010 'bailout' by the International Monetary Fund, charges on the use of water have been introduced and it is Irish Water that will collect them which according to themselves which allow them to modernize the water supply and end many of the issues surrounding it as well as raising money for the state. However, the company has been dogged with problems, senior management have all come from the traditional Irish semi-state pseudo-entrepreneurial management class with expectations of high very salaries and bonuses at taxpayers' expenses. The idea of charging for water is extremely controversial and has bought one of the biggest public resistance campaigns in Irish history with, at present, only half paying. This shortfall in funds has required it to get more and more state subsidies to stay afloat. Finally there are constant rumours often only half-heartily denied that the long-term objective of the government towards Irish Water is to privatize it and end the public provision of water supplies with all that that would entail.

Wrt water metering. Before the introduction of Irish Water there was nothing in place to monitor the level of water usage by the public. In order for this to rectified and thus relate water charges to water usage Irish Water has gone around Ireland trying to install water meters outside people's homes. It is here where a lot of the resistance to Water Charges has taken place with residents regularly blocking roads and preventing the installation of meters. This has sometimes gone as far as threats and harassment of those installing the meters.

NAMA stands for National Asset Management Agency. It was a body set up under the Previous Fianna Fail led administration to administer the assets from the 'bad loans' that had been created during the property bubble of the previous decade. In short as the government nationalized the banks (which it would eventually do for all Irish banks) it would move the failing assets from these banks to NAMA which would then control the property. This has made NAMA the largest landowner in Europe(!). Now that property prices are rising again and this is absolutely not a new bubble because it's absolutely not a new bubble NAMA is starting to offload its massive portfolio. However, there are still swathes of unused and unoccupied property throughout the country which is held by NAMA and nobody is quite sure what to do with it.

Jobbridge is a social welfare scheme set up by the current government in which companies (very much including the civil service and state-run companies) can apply to the Department of Social Welfare to set up internships for the unemployed whose salaries will be paid by the Department. However, these salaries are not bound by minimum wage laws but rather at the rate of unemployment benefit + €50 a week. For someone over the age of 25 that would mean being paid €238 a week for a job which might be the standard 35-40 hours (and for someone 25 or under it would be even less). It is widely seen as exploitative of the workers involved and is widely hated on the left and the far left. Its record of giving long-term employment to either first time job seekers or long term job seekers is mixed at best and it has allowed the government to claim that unemployment is lower than it actually is. Many companies have been found trying to downgrade part of its 'main jobs' off to Jobbridge as to cut costs.

No, the hospitals question refers to all hospitals, whether public or private although in the Irish healthcare system the distinction isn't as clear cut as it is in other places.

[ObserverIE]

Tom Fleming (Fianna Fáil gene pool Independent - South Kerry) withdraws from the election because he doesn't believe he has a chance of election in the new, much larger, Kerry constituency.

[ObserverIE]

Fun test - did a few different Dublin constituencies and got the Green candidate on top each time. But I've got some questions.
What is the deal with Irish Water? '
What's NAMA and JobBridge?
That hospital question. Is that about private hospitals or am I just being ignorant about the Irish healthcare system?
And that water metering deal. Is that based on the, for a Scandinavian, totally bizarre left-wing resistance against water feeds?

Irish Water is a recently established (by the incumbent government) state-run company that is in charge of the water supplies throughout the entire country. Historically the management of water has left to the county councils, a situation which has regularly led to problems with the supplies, but has meant that water was and has been free at the point of use (i.e. for the overwhelming majority of consumers). As part of the government's financial restructuring following the 2010 'bailout' by the International Monetary Fund, charges on the use of water have been introduced and it is Irish Water that will collect them which according to themselves which allow them to modernize the water supply and end many of the issues surrounding it as well as raising money for the state. However, the company has been dogged with problems, senior management have all come from the traditional Irish semi-state pseudo-entrepreneurial management class with expectations of high very salaries and bonuses at taxpayers' expenses. The idea of charging for water is extremely controversial and has bought one of the biggest public resistance campaigns in Irish history with, at present, only half paying. This shortfall in funds has required it to get more and more state subsidies to stay afloat. Finally there are constant rumours often only half-heartily denied that the long-term objective of the government towards Irish Water is to privatize it and end the public provision of water supplies with all that that would entail.

Wrt water metering. Before the introduction of Irish Water there was nothing in place to monitor the level of water usage by the public. In order for this to rectified and thus relate water charges to water usage Irish Water has gone around Ireland trying to install water meters outside people's homes. It is here where a lot of the resistance to Water Charges has taken place with residents regularly blocking roads and preventing the installation of meters. This has sometimes gone as far as threats and harassment of those installing the meters.

Being on the receiving end of lectures on water conservation in what is probably the wettest country in Europe doesn't really make the public mood any better on the topic.

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It has also helped to facilitate a culture of unpaid internships where prospective employees are expected to work for nothing for a prolonged period of time as an indication of commitment.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour and Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 28 (-3)
FF 20 (-)
SF 17 (+1)
Ind/Oth 14 (-1)
Lab 8 (+2)
SD 4 (+3)
SP/SWP 3 (-)
Renua 2 (-)
GP 2 (-)
WP 1 (-1)

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 31 (+2)
FF 17 (-)
SF 17 (-2)
Ind/Oth 16 (-)
Lab 10 (-)
SP/SWP 3 (-)
SD 3 (+1)
GP 2 (-1)
Renua 1 (-)

IMS/Millward Brown for the Sunday Independent:

FG 27 (-2)
FF 22 (-2)
SF 21 (-)
Ind/Oth 19 (+2)
Lab 6 (-1)
SP/SWP 2 (+2)
Renua 1 (-)
SD 1 (+1)
GP 1 (-)

Either RedC are overestimating FG and Labour or everyone else is underestimating them.

Hmmm. Looking at the small print, RedC have tweaked their methodology again, with the likely result of making it even more FG and Labour friendly than it was already, given those parties' stronger support among middle-class voters.

[joevsimp]

WP 1 (-1)

Are they even running enough candidates to make 1%?

[ObserverIE]

WP 1 (-1)

Are they even running enough candidates to make 1%?

No. It is, I suspect, mainly a vague recollection of the brand from the 80s glory days of mullets, denim jackets, shoulder pads and the Berlin WallAnti-Fascist Defence Barrier.

[DavidB.]

Amazing thread with some real quality posts. Thanks, especially to the Irish posters!

I took the SmartVote test for Dublin South Central.

Fianna Fail 28
Indie (Richard Murray) 27
Renua 25
Indie (Paul Hand) 24
People Before Profit (wut) 24
Indie (Joan Collins) 24
Sinn Fein 21
Social Democrats 20
Direct Democracy Ireland 20
Green Party 18
Labour 18
Fine Gael 16

Very weird. Would probably give my first preference to Renua and my second preference to Fine Gael (stupid party, but the country has recovered quite well under their watch, it seems). Identity-wise I'd be much more inclined to support either Fianna Fail or Sinn Fein, as I can sympathize with the ideology of a United Ireland and in general tend to like populist nationalists that appeal to the working class (I care less about being economically right-wing), but FF is too anti-Israel and SF is both too anti-Israel (its 2016 manifesto even featuring "Free Palestine" bullsh[inks]) and too leftist, so that's not going to happen.

[Јas]

Galway East

Candidates

Fine Gael	Ciaran Cannon TD, Paul Connaughton TD
Labour	Sen. Lorraine Higgins
Fianna Fáil	Colm Keaveney TD, Cllr. Ann Rabbitte
Sinn Féin	Annmarie Roche
AAA-PBP	-
Renua	-
SocDems	-
Green	Máiréad Ní Chróinín
Direct Democracy	Aengus Melia
Independents Alliance	Cllr. Sean Canney
Independents	Cllr. Michael Fahy

Galway East was decimated by the constituency commission losing 32 electoral divisions and over 20,000 people to the new Roscommon-Galway constituency. It also drops to becoming a 3-seater.

In 2011, in Galway E, FG took 2 seats on 44%; FF took 1 seat on 18%; and, Colm Keaveney for Labour took the last seat on 13%. Independent Seán Canney polled 9%; SF 6%; the Greens 1%.

The FG ticket comprises their two incumbents - Paul Connaughton in the south of the constituency and Ciaran Cannon in the north. Connaughton took over his seat from his father - an 8-term incumbent; he will suffer more from the constituency changes as it is north-eastern Galway which has disappeared. Cannon was the last leader of the Progressive Democrats and was granted refugee status by FG on their dissolution. It is very difficult to judge who might be favoured between them.

Similarly, it's not clear who the stronger FF candidate is. Their incumbent, Colm Keaveney was elected as a Labour TD - the first ever Labour TD in Galway East. He had been running for Labour in Galway East since 1997 and had been for quite a while, the only Labour councillor on Galway County Council, having developed a solid base in Tuam. In 2012 he was elected Chairman of the Labour Party. He voted against cuts to the respite care grant, which formed part of the 2013 budget, and lost the party whip. A year later, he caused some surprise by joining FF - being one of their most vocal critics of Labour and the government. The move was not wholly welcomed within Galway - but Keaveney managed to establish a sufficient base to get himself reasonably comfortably elected onto the ticket for this election.

His running mate, Cllr Anne Rabbitte is Portumna based in the far south of the constituency. She topped the poll in Loughrea in the 2014 locals - when FF performed slightly stronger in the south of the constituency than the north. WHo is the leadng candidate may depend on how much of the Labour vote Keaveney built up stays with him - or goes stays with the Labour party.

Labour's candidate is Senator Lorraine Higgins. Last time out, as Keaveney's running-mate, she polled 6% (to his 7.2%). Higgins has failed in all previous election attempts (Galway Council Council, Dáil, Seanad, European Parliament) and isn't likely to break the streak now. Her transfers though could be critical. Keaveney is also based in the southern end of the constituency.

SF have never been a factor in Galway East. This election though could well see them overtake Labour here and maybe give them better standing to challenge next time out. Their candidate is a complete unknown to me.

The two other candidates to note are the independents. Michael 'Stroke' Fahy, from Loughrea, polled 9% in the local elections there in 2014 and has been on the council since forever. His 2007 imprisonment for misappropriation of council funds, subsequently quashed, hasn't undult impigned his political career.

The other independent, Sean Canney, from Tuam, is a real contender for a seat. He topped the poll in the local elections in Tuam in both 2009 and 2014; and in the last general polled 9%. A generic rural independent - he's likely to prove transfer friendly, and benefit from the good national polling numbers for independents.


RTÉ prediction: 2 FG+ 1 FF or i
Irish Times prediction: 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 i
Jas prediction: 1 FG (Cannon), 1 FF (Keaveney), 1 i (Canney)

[Јas]

WP 1 (-1)

Are they even running enough candidates to make 1%?

Five declared candidates so far - in:
- Cork North Central
- Dublin Central
- Dublin Mid-West
- Dublin North West
- Meath East

Which as well as being ordered alphabetically, is a not unreasonable approximation of their likely best results in order.

In 2011, 1% equated to 22,203 votes. I'd say it's about 50-50 whether any of the WP candidates will break 1,000 votes.

[Јas]

Galway West

Candidates

Fine Gael	Sean Kyne TD, Sen. Hildegarde Naughton, John O’Mahony TD
Labour	Derek Nolan TD
Fianna Fáil	John Connolly, Cllr. Mary Hoade, Éamon Ó Cuív TD
Sinn Féin	Sen. Trevor Ó Clochartaigh
AAA-PBP	Tommy Holohan
Renua	Nicola Daveron
SocDems	Niall Ó Tuathail
Green	Seamus Sheridan
Direct Democracy	Ruairí O'Neill
Independents	Cllr. James Charity, Cllr. Catherine Connolly, Cllr. Mike Cubbard, Noel Grealish TD, Sen. Fidelma Healy-Eames, Tommy Roddy

Galway West remains a 5-seater having grown its territory taking in 7,500 people from the Ballinrobe area of south Mayo.

In 2011, in Galway W, FG took 2 seats on 31%; FF took 1 seat on 21%; Labour 1 seat on 12%; and independent Noel Grealish a seat from 10%. SF polled 6%, the Greens 2%, and independent Catherine Connolly 8%.

Just nineteen candidates to pick from here - best get on with it...

FF are running 3 candidates - Éamon Ó Cuív and two people who aren't Éamon Ó Cuív and won't get elected. The boundaries and running mates are very favourable to Ó Cuív who should get something around a quota himself and his running mates not much.

Of FG's incumbents, Brian Walsh resigned his seat just a few weeks ago on health grounds. Seán Kyne is based in Connemara (with Ó Cuív) and might have had the most marginal seat in the country at the last election - he held off independent Catherine Connolly by 17 votes after several days counting and recounting. So far as I can recall Mr Kyne has been among the more anonymous TDs in the Dáil - nonetheless incumbency and geography stand him as favourite of the FG cabal to get re-elected.

John O'Mahony is also a FG incumbent - though was elected from Mayo in 2011, with 3 others from FG. This being unsustainable, O'Mahony was strongly advised to run in Galway West which has taken in southern Mayo where O'Mahony can expect to be dominant.

Senator Hildegard Naughton is FG's third candidate, based in Galway City. Naughton may be hampered by the presence of the hilarious Oranmore-based Sen. Fidelma Healy-Eames on the ballot. Healy-Eames was on the FG ticket 5 years ago. She left the party over what she regarded as the government's too liberal abortion legislation. She subsequently warned the nation that allowing same-sex marriage would lead to the end of mothers' day. Unfortunately, the next parliament will have to get by without her wisdom.

Derek Nolan is the incumbent Labour candidate. Having topped the poll in 2011, Nolan, like his party colleagues elsewhere faces a challenge as to whether he can get re-elected at all. Nolan is possibly the key beneficiary from the resignation of FG's Brian Walsh - as both are Galway city based. Labour maintained 11% of the vote in the Galway city local elections in 2014 - but less than half that elsewhere in Galway West. Nolan will need transfers from somewhere (FG?) to stay in the hunt.

A further inhibiting factor for Nolan is that former Labour member Senator Trevor Ó Clochartaigh is again the SF candidate here. He is also Galway City based also. There's never been much evidence that Ó Clochartaigh is a particularly effective vote getter - but one suspects he'll benefit from SF's rising tide and from the exceedingly divided field to at least being in contention.

The independents to watch are incumbent TD Noel Grealish and Cllr. Catherine Connolly. Grealish has been a TD since 2002, initially a Progressive Democrat, and then an independent following their implosion. Very quiet during this Dáil - Grealish is the type of independent a Government just shy of a majority will seek to bring onside. His established base should keep him well placed in this field of candidates, and his independent brand should ensure transfers flow easily enough to see him returned.

Catherine Connolly is ex-Labour and also Galway city based. Just 17 votes shy in 2011, she improved her return in the 2014 locals and is likely to benefit from Labour's ebb. She won't not be competitive.

RTÉ prediction: 1 FF, 1 FG +3?
Irish Times prediction: 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab, 2 i
Jas prediction: 1 FF (Ó Cuív), 1 FG (Kyne), 1 SF (Ó Clochartaigh), 2 i (Grealish, Connolly)

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is the date for the elections? I thought the rule was to put in in the thread title.

[ObserverIE]

What is the date for the elections? I thought the rule was to put in in the thread title.

February 26th.

[DavidB.]

What is the date for the elections? I thought the rule was to put in in the thread title.

I will send Crab a PM about it.

[Hifly]

What is the date for the elections? I thought the rule was to put in in the thread title.

I will send Crab a PM about it.

I shall notify Nym and the powers above so that disciplinary action can be considered as soon as possible.

[ObserverIE]

Twenty-sixth.