Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016
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Author Topic: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016  (Read 98090 times)
Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #225 on: February 26, 2016, 02:02:55 AM »

Polling is now open across the country.

Polls close at 22.00

Counting will begin tomorrow morning 09.00
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #226 on: February 26, 2016, 04:24:39 AM »

RTÉ have commissioned B&A to do an exit poll.
Results will be published at 07.00 tomorrow morning.

The exit poll has a good record on accuracy.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #227 on: February 26, 2016, 05:13:20 AM »

RTÉ have commissioned B&A to do an exit poll. Results will be published at 07.00 tomorrow morning. The exit poll has a good record on accuracy.

Blimely, that's a bit of an early start for the broadcasters isn't it?
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #228 on: February 26, 2016, 05:24:16 AM »

There will be NO coverage on BBC Parliament (as there was in 2011) but there are other others.


Looks like BBC Parliament will carry an RTÉ feed from 18.35 tomorrow evening.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b073myv8
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Cassius
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« Reply #229 on: February 26, 2016, 05:54:42 AM »

Any particular reason as to why Ireland counts the day after the election? I mean, when you think about it, it does make practical sense, but it seems rather unusual. Also, what time might actual results start filter in through from the count?
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #230 on: February 26, 2016, 06:09:35 AM »

Any particular reason as to why Ireland counts the day after the election? I mean, when you think about it, it does make practical sense, but it seems rather unusual.

Because counting will take a long time - most constituencies will take all day tomorrow to get to a result.

Tomorrow evening returning officers will make decisions on whether to continue counting into Saturday night or suspend counting to resume Sunday, depending on their view of how long the process will take.

It's entirely possible that 1 or 2 constituencies will still be counting, or more probably recounting, come Monday.


Also, what time might actual results start filter in through from the count?

Unofficial 'tallies' will be widely reported early in the counting process from all count centres - giving a good impression of the direction of things.

First count declarations will probably start around lunchtime.
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Zanas
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« Reply #231 on: February 26, 2016, 08:26:45 AM »

Your post about the Western islands prompted me to look into their history and discover the notion of the Gaeltacht, of which I was unaware. Who usually wins the Gaeltacht parts ? SF or FF ? I would guess it would not be FG or Labour territory, maybe Independents ?
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Cassius
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« Reply #232 on: February 26, 2016, 08:28:09 AM »

Any particular reason as to why Ireland counts the day after the election? I mean, when you think about it, it does make practical sense, but it seems rather unusual.

Because counting will take a long time - most constituencies will take all day tomorrow to get to a result.

Tomorrow evening returning officers will make decisions on whether to continue counting into Saturday night or suspend counting to resume Sunday, depending on their view of how long the process will take.

It's entirely possible that 1 or 2 constituencies will still be counting, or more probably recounting, come Monday.


Also, what time might actual results start filter in through from the count?

Unofficial 'tallies' will be widely reported early in the counting process from all count centres - giving a good impression of the direction of things.

First count declarations will probably start around lunchtime.


Ah I see, cheers.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #233 on: February 26, 2016, 09:07:47 AM »

Your post about the Western islands prompted me to look into their history and discover the notion of the Gaeltacht, of which I was unaware. Who usually wins the Gaeltacht parts ? SF or FF ? I would guess it would not be FG or Labour territory, maybe Independents ?

The Gaeltacht areas are highlighted in dark green:


The three biggest Gaeltacht areas by population are those in Donegal, Galway, and Kerry.
The Local Electoral Areas that best encompass Gaeltacht areas are probably Glenties in Donegal and Connemara in Galway.

The 2014 local election party shares (with the changes on 2009) for those, and for their respective counties as a whole (for comparison), were:

Glenties  Donegal   ConnemaraGalway
Fianna Fáil36 (+7)29 (0)33 (+5)27 (+3)
Fine Gael11 (-5)16 (0)20 (-11)27 (-12)
Sinn Féin23 (+7)20 (+4)  8 (-2)  8 (+3)
Labour  6 (-4)  4 (-6)  4 (+4)  4 (-2)
Republican SF  7 (-1)  1 (-1)
Inds/Other24 (-5)32 (+3)28 (-5)33 (+10)

Republican Sinn Féin, which is linked with the Continuity IRA, won it's only council seat in the country in Connemara.
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Zanas
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« Reply #234 on: February 26, 2016, 09:28:08 AM »

Well thanks for that, I love you pal ! Glad that my assumptions were somewhat correct, as I generally don't know very much about Ireland. So some of the Independent vote in Connemara is actually more radical SinnFeinism ? I didn't even know it was still around.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #235 on: February 26, 2016, 05:10:48 PM »

Polls are closed.

Turnout is estimated to be about 66%. Early tallies indicate that it seems to be higher than expected in more working class areas and lower in more middle class areas. Certain parts of Dublin in particular may have seen a higher turnout during the marriage referendum.

Now, we have to wait and see if this mythical Exit poll does indeed exist...
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #236 on: February 26, 2016, 05:55:36 PM »

The Exit Poll



Ummm.... yeah
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Vosem
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« Reply #237 on: February 26, 2016, 05:55:52 PM »

Polls are closed.

Turnout is estimated to be about 66%. Early tallies indicate that it seems to be higher than expected in more working class areas and lower in more middle class areas. Certain parts of Dublin in particular may have seen a higher turnout during the marriage referendum.

Now, we have to wait and see if this mythical Exit poll does indeed exist...

So, speaking very broadly, can we expect a Fine Gael underperformance and a Sinn Fein overperformance within Dublin? Or is that analysis too simplistic? And how reliable are these numbers, anyway?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #238 on: February 26, 2016, 05:59:57 PM »

Polls are closed.

Turnout is estimated to be about 66%. Early tallies indicate that it seems to be higher than expected in more working class areas and lower in more middle class areas. Certain parts of Dublin in particular may have seen a higher turnout during the marriage referendum.

Now, we have to wait and see if this mythical Exit poll does indeed exist...

So, speaking very broadly, can we expect a Fine Gael underperformance and a Sinn Fein overperformance within Dublin? Or is that analysis too simplistic? And how reliable are these numbers, anyway?

Almost certainly Fianna Fail will underperform in Dublin and Sinn Fein will overperform there; FG are expected to be at about their national average... although in saying that I didn't see that exit poll.
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Vosem
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« Reply #239 on: February 26, 2016, 06:03:32 PM »

Polls are closed.

Turnout is estimated to be about 66%. Early tallies indicate that it seems to be higher than expected in more working class areas and lower in more middle class areas. Certain parts of Dublin in particular may have seen a higher turnout during the marriage referendum.

Now, we have to wait and see if this mythical Exit poll does indeed exist...

So, speaking very broadly, can we expect a Fine Gael underperformance and a Sinn Fein overperformance within Dublin? Or is that analysis too simplistic? And how reliable are these numbers, anyway?

Almost certainly Fianna Fail will underperform in Dublin and Sinn Fein will overperform there; FG are expected to be at about their national average... although in saying that I didn't see that exit poll.

Does the middle class in Dublin vote Fianna Fail today? I was under the impression that their base in the city, especially during the Ahern years, was in the working-class, and when the big collapse happened they mostly left for Sinn Fein, leaving behind a few remnants of FF support.

If the middle-class is the FF base, then who in Dublin votes FG?

And, I hope I don't come off as critical or ignorant; this is the first Irish election I've ever followed, and my knowledge of the system and previous elections has come mostly from a few threads on this website and Wikipedia, so there is no great depth to it. I'd actually like to learn.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #240 on: February 26, 2016, 06:18:37 PM »

23% for Epic Fáil would still be quite a lot more than polls predicted a month or so ago, though?
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #241 on: February 26, 2016, 06:28:30 PM »


The nightmare coalition it is then? :/
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #242 on: February 26, 2016, 07:37:38 PM »

Polls are closed.

Turnout is estimated to be about 66%. Early tallies indicate that it seems to be higher than expected in more working class areas and lower in more middle class areas. Certain parts of Dublin in particular may have seen a higher turnout during the marriage referendum.

Now, we have to wait and see if this mythical Exit poll does indeed exist...

So, speaking very broadly, can we expect a Fine Gael underperformance and a Sinn Fein overperformance within Dublin? Or is that analysis too simplistic? And how reliable are these numbers, anyway?

Almost certainly Fianna Fail will underperform in Dublin and Sinn Fein will overperform there; FG are expected to be at about their national average... although in saying that I didn't see that exit poll.

Does the middle class in Dublin vote Fianna Fail today? I was under the impression that their base in the city, especially during the Ahern years, was in the working-class, and when the big collapse happened they mostly left for Sinn Fein, leaving behind a few remnants of FF support.

If the middle-class is the FF base, then who in Dublin votes FG?

And, I hope I don't come off as critical or ignorant; this is the first Irish election I've ever followed, and my knowledge of the system and previous elections has come mostly from a few threads on this website and Wikipedia, so there is no great depth to it. I'd actually like to learn.

FF's vote-base in Dublin would be working and lower middle-class; the professional and "old money" classes were (and are) always the FG stronghold.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #243 on: February 26, 2016, 08:04:00 PM »

Regional breakdowns of exit poll

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #244 on: February 26, 2016, 08:07:25 PM »

So... we're not getting anything real at all today? Not even a national first pref count?

Was it like that in 2011 too? For some reason I remembered that counting had started on the night itself.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #245 on: February 26, 2016, 08:09:42 PM »

So... we're not getting anything real at all today? Not even a national first pref count?

Was it like that in 2011 too? For some reason I remembered that counting had started on the night itself.

Counting proper begins at 9AM GMT, as it always does.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #246 on: February 26, 2016, 08:11:48 PM »

So... we're not getting anything real at all today? Not even a national first pref count?

Was it like that in 2011 too? For some reason I remembered that counting had started on the night itself.

Counting proper begins at 9AM GMT, as it always does.

Well, that sucks. Angry
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #247 on: February 26, 2016, 08:33:03 PM »

So... we're not getting anything real at all today? Not even a national first pref count?

Was it like that in 2011 too? For some reason I remembered that counting had started on the night itself.

Counting proper begins at 9AM GMT, as it always does.


And still it can be counted faster than in Poland. Although since presidential elections there is some improvement. How long it usually takes in Ireland to count all votes?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #248 on: February 26, 2016, 08:35:25 PM »

So... we're not getting anything real at all today? Not even a national first pref count?

Was it like that in 2011 too? For some reason I remembered that counting had started on the night itself.

Counting proper begins at 9AM GMT, as it always does.


And still it can be counted faster than in Poland. Although since presidential elections there is some improvement. How long it usually takes in Ireland to count all votes?

Well Ireland has PR-STV so in each constituency there are multiple counts (some of the seats might get close to 20 counts this time around) but we will have a very, very good idea of the results by this time tomorrow with the last few seats decided on Monday (after many, many recounts).
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Јas
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« Reply #249 on: February 27, 2016, 12:41:51 AM »


For comparison, the 2011 results:
FF   FG   Lab  SF   Ind/Other
Dublin133029  820
Leinster2036191014
Munster183819  616
Conn-Ulster 1940  91516
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