Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Јas]

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[DavidB.]

Dublin Rathdown is the second constituency to finish. First seat goes to independent Shane Ross, as expected; second seat goes to Fine Gael (not to incumbent Alan Shatter, but rather his running-mate Josepha Madigan); and, out of completely nowhere, the last seat goes to Green Party candidate Catherine Martin.

Outstanding result for the Greens

Means I voted for a winner. Not sure what to feel about that.

For a start we can exclude any possibility of Sinn Fein or the Greens taking it...

(Sorry)

I immediately thought of this, but found it too mean to repost. Oh well (A) I'd rather have my prediction wrong but my preferred candidate elected than the reverse

[YL]

Kildare South, count 4, quota 9,197, 3 seater

Heydon (FG) 10,321 and elected
O'Loughlin (FF) 7,905
Ó Feargaíl (FF) 7,166
Ryan (SF) 5,434
Wall (Lab) 5,154

Next step is the distribution of the FG surplus; I imagine this will move Wall ahead of Ryan and keep him in the race for a bit longer.

[DavidB.]

How is it possible that some constituencies have finished 6 counts already and others haven't been able to finish the first count?

[YL]

Dublin Central count 6, 3 seater, quota 5,922

McDonald (SF) elected
Donohoe (FG) 3,945
Gannon (SD) 2,832
Fitzpatrick (FF) 2,655
Burke (Ind) 2,503
O'Sullivan (Ind) 2,377
Costello (Lab) 2,281
Perry (Ind) 1,492 to be eliminated

Count 7

Donohoe 3480
Gannon 3117
Burke 2822
Fitzpatrick 2810
O'Sullivan 2792
Costello 2345 and out

[YL]

Dublin Mid West, count 7, 4 seater, quota 8,621

Ó Brion (SF) elected
Fitzgerald (FG) elected
Curran (FF) 7,218
Kenny (AAA-PBP) 5,474
McNally (SD) 2,867
Gogarty (IA) 2,741
Keating (FG) 2,653
Tuffy (Lab) 2,355
Timmons (Ind) 1,318
Hennessy (WP) 613
Kivlehan (Green) 443
last two to be eliminated

Count 8 has been completed with no change in the order.  Timmons next to go.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Dublin Bay South Count 1

FG * Murphy , E 16.5% 6567
FG O'Connell , K 13.6% 5399
FF O'Callaghan , J 11.5% 4575
GP Ryan , E 11.4% 4529
RN * Creighton , L 10.7% 4229
LAB * Humphreys , K 10.6% 4205
SF Andrews , C 9.5% 3774
SD Lynch , G 6.7% 2652
AAA-PBP Mooney , A 4.4% 1728
IND Flynn , M 3.8% 1525

terrible result for lucinda.

[Јas]

More unstamped ballots...

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http://www.thejournal.ie/spoiled-votes-waterford-2629008-Feb2016/

[Јas]

How is it possible that some constituencies have finished 6 counts already and others haven't been able to finish the first count?

Variances in constituency size/number of ballots to count; differences in the lengths of ballot papers; different numbers of candidates; disputes over ballots; general incompetence... take your pick.

[DavidB.]

Dublin Bay South Count 1

FG * Murphy , E 16.5% 6567
FG O'Connell , K 13.6% 5399
FF O'Callaghan , J 11.5% 4575
GP Ryan , E 11.4% 4529
RN * Creighton , L 10.7% 4229
LAB * Humphreys , K 10.6% 4205
SF Andrews , C 9.5% 3774
SD Lynch , G 6.7% 2652
AAA-PBP Mooney , A 4.4% 1728
IND Flynn , M 3.8% 1525

terrible result for lucinda.

Not unexpected, but very disappointing

How is it possible that some constituencies have finished 6 counts already and others haven't been able to finish the first count?

Variances in constituency size/number of ballots to count; differences in the lengths of ballot papers; different numbers of candidates; disputes over ballots; general incompetence... take your pick.

fair enough

[Јas]

Dublin Bay South Count 1

FG * Murphy , E 16.5% 6567
FG O'Connell , K 13.6% 5399
FF O'Callaghan , J 11.5% 4575
GP Ryan , E 11.4% 4529
RN * Creighton , L 10.7% 4229
LAB * Humphreys , K 10.6% 4205
SF Andrews , C 9.5% 3774
SD Lynch , G 6.7% 2652
AAA-PBP Mooney , A 4.4% 1728
IND Flynn , M 3.8% 1525

terrible result for lucinda.

Yeah. Hard to see where she could get sufficient transfers from.

[Harry Hayfield]

Current vote share (and seat tally)

Fine Gael 25.1% winning 7 seats
Fianna Fail 24.9% winning 13 seats
Sinn Fein 13.3% winning 4 seats
Independents 12.6% winning 2 seats
Labour 6.9% winning 0 seats
Anti Austerity Alliance 4.2% winning 1 seat
Independent Alliance 3.8% winning 2 seats
Social Democrats 3.5% winning 3 seats
Green Party 2.9% winning 1 seat
Renua 2.2% winning 0 seats
Others 0.7% winning 0 seats

[jaichind]

It seems that FF is exceeding exit polls.

[DavidB.]

It seems that FF is exceeding exit polls.

Yes, and it also seems that both FF and (to a smaller extent) SF are quite transfer-friendly.

[YL]

Just Dublin Bay North (with its huge ballot paper), Louth, Cavan-Monaghan, Longford-Westmeath and Healy-Raeland still without a first count result

[DavidB.]

Kenny reelected in Mayo on 1st count. Still, first preference FG vote 14% down from 2011.

[YL]

Just Dublin Bay North (with its huge ballot paper), Louth, Cavan-Monaghan, Longford-Westmeath and Healy-Raeland still without a first count result

... and Louth is now in.  Adams tops the poll but not quite there on the first count.

[jaichind]

It seems that FF is exceeding exit polls.

Yes, and it also seems that both FF and (to a smaller extent) SF are quite transfer-friendly.

Wow, that is quite a surprise, to me at least.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

[YL]

Dún Laoghaire finished, with Bailey and O'Connor (both FG) joining Boyd-Barrett.

[Vosem]

With the count finished in Dun Laoghaire, the final result is 3 FG (one Ceann Comhairle, and then 2 candidates narrowly getting over the hump with Labour preferences) and 1 PBP. Four constituencies -- Dun Laoghaire, Dublin Rathdown, Laois, and Galway East -- are completely finished. Three (Longford-Westmeath, Kerry, and Dublin Bay North) have yet to begin. In the completed constituencies:

Dublin Rathdown: 1 Ind (Ross), 1 FG, 1 GP
Dun Laoghaire: 3 FG, 1 PBP
Galway East: 1 Ind (Canney), 1 FF, 1 FG
Laois: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

[YL]

Dublin Mid West, count 7, 4 seater, quota 8,621

Ó Brion (SF) elected
Fitzgerald (FG) elected
Curran (FF) 7,218
Kenny (AAA-PBP) 5,474
McNally (SD) 2,867
Gogarty (IA) 2,741
Keating (FG) 2,653
Tuffy (Lab) 2,355
Timmons (Ind) 1,318
Hennessy (WP) 613
Kivlehan (Green) 443
last two to be eliminated

Count 8 has been completed with no change in the order.  Timmons next to go.

Count 9, 2 seats left

Curran 7383
Kenny 6331
McNally 3235
Gogarty 3164
Keating 2725
Tuffy 2515 and out

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Dún Laoghaire finished, with Bailey and O'Connor (both FG) joining Boyd-Barrett.

It seems South Dublin was pretty satisfied with FG overall. Perhaps that is why Lucinda burnt out?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Heather Humphries (FG) wins in Cavan-Monaghan. The only Presbyterian in the Dail.

[Јas]

Dún Laoghaire finished, with Bailey and O'Connor (both FG) joining Boyd-Barrett.

Bailey becomes the 100th woman ever elected to Dáil Éireann.