Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Cork South West Complete

Margaret Murphy O'Mahony (FF)
Michael Collins (IND)
Jim Daly (FG)

Elected

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any chance Social Democrats could win more seats? It seems one of them could pull it off in Dublin Central.

[DavidB.]

RTÉ journalist in Dublin studio interviews FF candidate in Cork South-West, thinks she has not been elected yet, but candidate has, in fact, just been elected. Awkward! Not the first technology fail for RTÉ this evening.

[Vosem]

Is there still a chance of Renua winning a seat in Offaly (for some reason)? Barry Cowen of FF has won the first seat, and Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy of FG winning the second looks very likely, but then there's less than 400 votes between three candidates tied for the third seat: Carol Nolan of SF, the second FF candidate (Eddie Fitzpatrick), and John Leahy of Renua. It'll be decided by the preferences of independent Joe Hannigan, so...what kind of voters does Hannigan have? And why was Renua so successful specifically here? It doesn't seem like Offaly was seen as a likely seat for them.

[YL]

Dublin Central count 6, 3 seater, quota 5,922

McDonald (SF) elected
Donohoe (FG) 3,945
Gannon (SD) 2,832
Fitzpatrick (FF) 2,655
Burke (Ind) 2,503
O'Sullivan (Ind) 2,377
Costello (Lab) 2,281
Perry (Ind) 1,492 to be eliminated

Count 7

Donohoe 3480
Gannon 3117
Burke 2822
Fitzpatrick 2810
O'Sullivan 2792
Costello 2345 and out

Counts 8 and 9 (McDonald's surplus)

Donohoe 4481
Gannon 3549
O'Sullivan 3214
Burke 3083
Fitzpatrick 2984 and out

Count 10, not great for the SDs:

Donohoe 5127
Gannon 3931
O'Sullivan 3923
Burke 3658 and out

[Vosem]

Count 10, not great for the SDs:

Donohoe 5127
Gannon 3931
O'Sullivan 3923
Burke 3658 and out

Obviously O'Sullivan could ask for a recount, but if those 8 votes hold, wouldn't that be it? Gannon elected as a fourth seat for the SDs?

EDIT: Nevermind, I thought Burke's transfers had already been included in the count. I don't think Burke's votes will go to O'Sullivan by that much, but when the margin is 8 votes, it should be enough.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Is there still a chance of Renua winning a seat in Offaly (for some reason)? Barry Cowen of FF has won the first seat, and Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy of FG winning the second looks very likely, but then there's less than 400 votes between three candidates tied for the third seat: Carol Nolan of SF, the second FF candidate (Eddie Fitzpatrick), and John Leahy of Renua. It'll be decided by the preferences of independent Joe Hannigan, so...what kind of voters does Hannigan have? And why was Renua so successful specifically here? It doesn't seem like Offaly was seen as a likely seat for them.

The Renua candidate was/is a popular local councillor. In rural Ireland when asking "Why is Candidate X popular when he belongs to party Y?" this is nearly always the answer.

As for your other questions, no idea. Hannigan was another localist independent but apparently popular in GAA circles (this usually means "strongly FG or FF leaning") so I can't say for sure.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Count 10, not great for the SDs:

Donohoe 5127
Gannon 3931
O'Sullivan 3923
Burke 3658 and out

Obviously O'Sullivan could ask for a recount, but if those 8 votes hold, wouldn't that be it? Gannon elected as a fourth seat for the SDs?

No, there's only 3 seats.

[YL]

Carlow-Kilkenny, 5 seater, quota 11669, count 8:

McGuinness (FF) 11903 and elected
Funchion (SF) 10970
Aylward (FF) 10030
O'Connor (FF) 9049
Phelan (FG) 8450
Deering (FG) 6940
Fitzgerald (FG) 5721
Phelan (Lab) 5596 and out

Count 9

Funchion (SF) 11516
Aylward (FF) 10634
Phelan (FG) 10222
O'Connor (FF) 9371
Deering (FG) 7675
Fitzgerald (FG) 6588 and out

I assume Fitzgerald's transfers will get Deering ahead of O'Connor for 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF.

[Vosem]

Interestingly, in Dublin North-West (the only place FG didn't win a seat in 2011) they are just 100 votes behind FF for the last seat with 3400 Labour votes yet to be transferred. Rare FG pickup?

[Јas]

Is there any chance Social Democrats could win more seats? It seems one of them could pull it off in Dublin Central.

Dublin Central is their best chance - but that is itself probably now unlikely to work out.

Respectable efforts in Dublin Bay North, Dublin Mid West, and Galway West are unlikely to translate into seats.

[RodPresident]

Why does count in DBN so delayed?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Interestingly, in Dublin North-West (the only place FG didn't win a seat in 2011) they are just 100 votes behind FF for the last seat with 3400 Labour votes yet to be transferred. Rare FG pickup?

Seems very likely but note boundary changes have made this more favourable to FG

Anyway Meath West is Finished: Damien English (FG) elected

[YL]

Dublin Mid West, count 7, 4 seater, quota 8,621

Ó Brion (SF) elected
Fitzgerald (FG) elected
Curran (FF) 7,218
Kenny (AAA-PBP) 5,474
McNally (SD) 2,867
Gogarty (IA) 2,741
Keating (FG) 2,653
Tuffy (Lab) 2,355
Timmons (Ind) 1,318
Hennessy (WP) 613
Kivlehan (Green) 443
last two to be eliminated

Count 8 has been completed with no change in the order.  Timmons next to go.

Count 9, 2 seats left

Curran 7383
Kenny 6331
McNally 3235
Gogarty 3164
Keating 2725
Tuffy 2515 and out

Count 10, Keating overtook Gogarty

Curran 7685
Kenny 6542
McNally 3679
Keating 3640
Gogarty 3505 and out

Hard to see it not being Curran and Kenny getting the last two seats

Count 11

Curran 8287
Kenny 7498
McNally 4460
Keating 4179 and out

Fairly even spread of transfers from Gogarty, but Kenny got the most so the result is even less in doubt.

[YL]

Is there still a chance of Renua winning a seat in Offaly (for some reason)? Barry Cowen of FF has won the first seat, and Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy of FG winning the second looks very likely, but then there's less than 400 votes between three candidates tied for the third seat: Carol Nolan of SF, the second FF candidate (Eddie Fitzpatrick), and John Leahy of Renua. It'll be decided by the preferences of independent Joe Hannigan, so...what kind of voters does Hannigan have? And why was Renua so successful specifically here? It doesn't seem like Offaly was seen as a likely seat for them.

Leahy has now been eliminated on count 5:

Cowen (FF) elected
Corcoran-Kennedy (FG) 9484
Nolan (SF) 7195
Fitzpatrick (FF) 7141
Leahy (Renua) 6588 and out

I assume Fitzpatrick is favoured over Nolan at this point.

[Vosem]

There's a 200-vote margin between FF and Lucinda Creighton, the Renua leader, in Dublin Bay South, with 2 FG candidates and the Green leader running ahead, no one elected so far, and 4500 SF and 4500 Labour votes waiting to be distributed. Is it possible for Lucinda to make up that difference? The SF votes seem likely to be unfriendly but I think the majority of them will go Green rather than FF. Labour will go to FF first, but only about 2500 are needed to bring both FG candidates up to the quota.

[Harry Hayfield]

Source: The Irish Times

Counts Complete: 8
Seats Filled: 54

Vote Share and Seats Won
Fine Gael 26% winning 14 seats
Fianna Fail 25% winning 19 seats
Independents 17% winning 6 seats
Sinn Fein 14% winning 6 seats
Labour 7% winning 1 seat
Anti Austerity Alliance 4% winning 2 seats
Social Democrats 3% winning 3 seats
Green Party 3% winning 1 seat
Other Parties 1% winning 0 seats

[Vosem]

Imo, unless there is an Ireland-wide campaign against independents, it's hard to imagine the next election being any more decisive than this one. FF and FG may refuse to work together after just one election where that's the only option, but when that result keeps repeating, well...

EDIT: Is it possible for FG and FF to band together, announce they are forming a caretaker government, and immediately call for new elections? Or would an honest attempt at government formation be made? If so, how long would it be expected to last?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Amazing election fact: Labour did better in Clare than in Dublin South Central. Which is... insane.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the hell are Dublin Bay North and Kerry doing?

[YL]

Dublin South West, 5 seater, quota 11212, count 10

Lahart (FF) 10565
Murphy (AAA-PBP) 10366
Crowe (SF) 9502
Brophy (FG) 8213
Dermody (FG) 7337
Zappone (Ind) 5797
Kearns (Lab) 3933
Fitzpatrick (Ind) 3799
Fay (AAA-PBP) 3725
McMahon (Renua) 3548 to be eliminated

[YL]

Guess who has just been elected on the first count in Kerry 7000 votes over quota?

M. Healy-Rae (Ind) 20378
D. Healy-Rae (Ind) 9991
Griffin (FG) 9674
Ferris (SF) 9458
Brassil (FF) 8156
Deenihan (FG) 6489
Spring (Lab) 4813
Moriarty (FF) 4348
others below 1500

Quota 13,213, 5 seats

[DavidB.]

Guess who has just been elected on the first count in Kerry 7000 votes over quota?

Impressive. And his brother came second in the first count.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the hell are Dublin Bay North and Kerry doing?

..and just as I posted that, Kerry is in.

[Vosem]

Guess who has just been elected on the first count in Kerry 7000 votes over quota?

Guess who's in second place, and which two candidates have 38.3% of the vote between the two of them?