Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016
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Author Topic: Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016  (Read 98091 times)
YL
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« Reply #500 on: February 28, 2016, 07:03:41 AM »

Unsurprisingly enough, Danny Healy-Rae has been elected on the second count in Kerry on his brother's transfers.
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YL
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« Reply #501 on: February 28, 2016, 07:09:01 AM »

Dublin Bay South, fifth count:

4 seats
Murphy (FG) 6873
Ryan (Grn) 6605
O'Connell (FG) 5773
Humphreys (Lab) 4992
O'Callaghan (FF) 4949
Andrews (SF) 4888
Creighton (Renua) 4820 and out
Count adjourned until 10am.

Count 6

Murphy 7860
Ryan 7560
O'Connell 6324
O'Callaghan 5969
Humphreys 5391
Andrews 5197 and out
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YL
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« Reply #502 on: February 28, 2016, 08:39:59 AM »

Dublin Bay South, fifth count:

4 seats
Murphy (FG) 6873
Ryan (Grn) 6605
O'Connell (FG) 5773
Humphreys (Lab) 4992
O'Callaghan (FF) 4949
Andrews (SF) 4888
Creighton (Renua) 4820 and out
Count adjourned until 10am.

Count 6

Murphy 7860
Ryan 7560
O'Connell 6324
O'Callaghan 5969
Humphreys 5391
Andrews 5197 and out


Count 7

Ryan (Green) 8788 and elected
Murphy (FG) 8023 and elected
O'Callaghan (FF) 6678
O'Connell (FG) 6446
Humphreys (Lab) 5973

Ryan's surplus was then distributed, taking Humphreys up to 6221, still short of the other two, and too far short for Murphy's surplus to help, so O'Callaghan and O'Connell are elected as well.

Final result 2 FG, 1 Green, 1 FF, 0 Renua Smiley
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #503 on: February 28, 2016, 09:06:44 AM »

(Source: Irish Times)
All 40 constituencies have declared their first count
23 constituency counts have been completed
109 seats have been filled

Tally of % share (change on 2011) and seats won so far
Fine Gael 26% (-10%) winning 34 seats
Fianna Fail 24% (+6%) winning 32 seats
Independents 18% (+6%) winning 16 seats
Sinn Fein 14% (+4%) winning 14 seats
Labour 7% (-13%) winning 4 seats
Anti Austerity Alliance 4% (+3%) winning 4 seats
Social Democrats 3% (no candidates at last election) winning 3 seats
Green Party 3% (+1%) winning 2 seats
Renua 2% (no candidates at last election) winning 0 seats

Swing from governing parties (FG + Lab) to main opposition (FF) of 14.5%
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jaichind
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« Reply #504 on: February 28, 2016, 09:15:17 AM »

FG-FF seat difference seems to be 34-32.  My best back-of-envelope guess looking at seats remaining is that FG-FF will end up 52-43 in terms of seats.  Given Ireland is the land of STV, is there any advantage from being the largest party in terms of getting the Taoiseach seat?  Is  FG-FF grand alliance destined to have a FG Taoiseach then ?
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #505 on: February 28, 2016, 10:34:28 AM »

FG-FF seat difference seems to be 34-32.  My best back-of-envelope guess looking at seats remaining is that FG-FF will end up 52-43 in terms of seats.  Given Ireland is the land of STV, is there any advantage from being the largest party in terms of getting the Taoiseach seat?  Is  FG-FF grand alliance destined to have a FG Taoiseach then ?

As there has never been a grand coalition before, no one knows, but I should point out the exit poll which said that 50% of voters expect an election before the end of the year (suggesting that a government will not be formed)
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #506 on: February 28, 2016, 10:42:06 AM »

Noel Grealish (IND) elected in Galway West.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #507 on: February 28, 2016, 11:24:47 AM »

Wonder if Aodhan O Riordain ("Ireland hasn't just said yes, Ireland has said f<3ck yeaaah!!!!!") will hold on to his Dublin Bay North seat. Doesn't look good for him, because the two indies (who are currently still behind him) will probably benefit from better transfers, and there are no FG candidates that will be eliminated anymore.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #508 on: February 28, 2016, 11:32:41 AM »

Kildare North Finished: Durkan (FG), Lawless (FF), and O'Rourke (FF) elected. 2FF 1FG 1SD in total.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #509 on: February 28, 2016, 11:40:53 AM »

Wonder if Aodhan O Riordain ("Ireland hasn't just said yes, Ireland has said f<3ck yeaaah!!!!!") will hold on to his Dublin Bay North seat. Doesn't look good for him, because the two indies (who are currently still behind him) will probably benefit from better transfers, and there are no FG candidates that will be eliminated anymore.

Well the second FG candidate's votes are currently being distributed after her elimination, but that will mainly benefit Richard Bruton. The two remaining independents are a left-wing incumbent TD who was originally elected for Labour (Broughan) and a very high profile ex-member of FF who had a falling out with the party (Power). Plus there is the Independents Alliance candidate Finian McGrath, a long serving Independent TD who has Shinner political roots (and clearly gets a lot of what would be otherwise Shinner votes). It's extremely difficult to call but I wouldn't fancy O'Riordain's chances tbh. The performance of the AAA-PBP candidate is a surprise and he now looks a good chance to be elected.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #510 on: February 28, 2016, 11:41:56 AM »


Also in Roscommon-Galway Eugene Murphy (FF) has been elected, along with two independents confirmed earlier. This means that Roscommon-Galway will be without an FG TD, probably the only such seat in the country (although Dublin North West is another possibility).

To clarify on this, Dublin North West did elected an FG TD this morning: Noel Rock. However, there will be another constituency without an FG TD, Tipperary, which eventually choose 3INDS 1LAB and 1FF. Alan Kelly returns.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #511 on: February 28, 2016, 11:43:13 AM »

The utterly random pattern of Labour (sic) TDs is amusing. A return to old times or something.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #512 on: February 28, 2016, 11:48:55 AM »

Louth - After the distribution of the Independents Alliance candidate showed itself to be surprisingly favourable, Ged Nash now has a real chance of belonging to the group of surviving Labour TDs. The AAA-PBP candidate is now being eliminated which should elect the second SF candidate, after that it would come to her surplus and how it distributes between the two FG candidates and Nash for the final two seats.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #513 on: February 28, 2016, 11:51:04 AM »

Dublin Bay North - Finally someone is elected: Richard Bruton (FG). The next count will be the distribution of his surplus to see whether Flanagan (RN) or Heney (FF) is the next to be eliminated.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #514 on: February 28, 2016, 11:51:40 AM »

One thing this election has emphasized is how important running the right number of candidates is.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #515 on: February 28, 2016, 11:53:59 AM »

Donegal - Pearse Doherty (SF) elected; a surplus of about 2,400 votes to be distributed given the second SF candidate a serious chance.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #516 on: February 28, 2016, 11:58:52 AM »

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Bacon King
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« Reply #517 on: February 28, 2016, 12:06:18 PM »

The US prediction markets are giving Enda Kenny a 69% chance to be re-elected Taoiseach - this is incredibly overvalued, yes?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #518 on: February 28, 2016, 12:08:43 PM »


Lord knows what is going to happen, but yes. But only a fool would bet now on what's going to happen. It's possible Kenny will be re-elected as a caretaker and then a second election called.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #519 on: February 28, 2016, 12:11:40 PM »


And note how all of them are incumbents?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #520 on: February 28, 2016, 12:44:57 PM »

Wicklow: Casey (FF) and Doyle (FG) confirmed. Last chance of Renua for a seat is gone.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #521 on: February 28, 2016, 01:23:19 PM »

Unsurprisingly enough, Danny Healy-Rae has been elected on the second count in Kerry on his brother's transfers.

I didn't think they had quite two quotas between them, although close enough that exclusions of other candidates and distributions/exhaustions of their transfers would get the brother in.  Were exclusions perhaps done at the same time?
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jaichind
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« Reply #522 on: February 28, 2016, 01:43:50 PM »

FG-FF seat difference seems to be 42-38.  My best back-of-envelope guess looking at seats remaining is that FG-FF will end up 50-44 in terms of seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #523 on: February 28, 2016, 01:50:46 PM »

I have a questions which I am sorry if had been answered earlier in the thread:  Did FG and LAB have an alliance agreement in the election where they will ask their supporters to mark the other party on their list right after the party they support?  This way on the list FG voters would put LAB candidates right after the FG candidates and vice versa.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #524 on: February 28, 2016, 02:08:00 PM »

Unsurprisingly enough, Danny Healy-Rae has been elected on the second count in Kerry on his brother's transfers.

I didn't think they had quite two quotas between them, although close enough that exclusions of other candidates and distributions/exhaustions of their transfers would get the brother in.  Were exclusions perhaps done at the same time?

http://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016/kerry

Danny was elected on the second count, immediately following the distribution of Michael's votes (and before any candidates had been excluded). It was close, though - only about six hundred votes above quota.
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