Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Zanas]

Looking at transfers in a number of constituencies, it seems that transfers between and SF and FF in both ways were somewhat decent, transfer from the Greens were all over the place. The Green constituency seems to really be from across the board, which I guess makes sense. Also, SDs got decent transfers from the left, even the AAA-PBP. Finally, STV has the advantage of being able to label independents from their transfers, even though you haven't followed closely.

[Јas]

The Monday papers...

[Јas]

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http://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016-first-moves-get-under-way-in-bid-to-form-government-1.2553176

[Harry Hayfield]

(Source: Irish Times)
36 constituencies completed (with Dublin Bay North having a full recount)
Current Seat Tallies
Fine Gael 47
Fianna Fail 43
Sinn Fein 22
Independents 20
Labour 6
Anti Austerity Alliance 5
Social Democrats 3
Greens 2

Fine Gael + Labour = 53
Fianna Fail + Independents = 67
Fine Gael + Fianna Fail = 90

My thoughts, second general election by the summer / autumn

[Јas]

Schedule for counting/recounting to begin again today:

09.00  Dublin South-West

10.00  Wexford

11.00  Dublin Bay North

13.00  Dublin South-Central

15.00  Longford-Westmeath

[Јas]

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http://www.irishexaminer.com/election2016/election2016-news-and-analysis/enda-kenny-scrambles-to-to-secure-support-of-independents-to-hold-onto-power-384699.html

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If this is a good result for them, do you think Social Democrats might have room to grow in the future? Could they establish a durable presence in Irish politics?

Still interested in an answer on that.

Who knows? They did astonishingly well at mopping up a lot of Labour's base where they stood, managed to get a healthy share of the national vote despite not winning many Constituencies and only appearing in one debate and fill a healthy niche. This election established them as a brand - first order would be to consolidate other lefty Indies behind that brand and try increase their candidate numbers go become a national party. Luckily Labour's s dominated by its right, so maybe they'll sort of die.

Also this election made me think that 3-seater Constituencies are a big mistake tbh.

[Јas]

I am great fan of the STV system but I noticed one major problem: it takes very long to count the votes and probably need a lot of people to work in electoral commissions for all that time.

Why is it a major problem?

When last district will be counted?

I imagine at least one of the counts will still be going tomorrow.

[Јas]

Bertie says ‘no chance in hell’ government will be formed before Easter - TheJournal.ie

[Јas]

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http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/news/senior-tds-warn-martin-against-coalition-with-fg-34496239.html

[ObserverIE]

When last district will be counted?

I imagine at least one of the counts will still be going tomorrow.

*waves*

[Tetro Kornbluth]

As I stated earlier

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[joevsimp]

As I stated earlier

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just like Labour warned us (and then claimed they didn't)?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Wexford formally done although SF are demanding a further recount, their candidate fell 52 votes short. Michael D'Arcy (FG) and Paul Kehoe (FG) elected. 2FG 1LAB 1FF 1I4C elected, 3 seats for the government - unusual.

[freek]

We used to have "voting computers" when I was young, until the government decided it was too risky regarding fraud.


I like voting with the pencil more, but then again, we don't have STV...

The Irish machines looked like this:



It is no coincidence that the machines look similar to the Dutch ones, Ireland had a contract with the same manufacturer, Nedap. The e-voting project was abandoned at the same time (and for similar reasons) as the Dutch e-voting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, the 9 seats left should break down:
- 1 FG basically guaranteed (L.-W.)
- 1 Ind basically guaranteed (L.-W.)
- 1 FF basically guaranteed (DBN)
- 1 seat that could go either FF, FG, SF or Lab (L.-W.)
- 3 seats to split between Ind, SF, Lab, and AAA-PBP. One of the two independents will probably get in (DBN)
- 1 seat that could go either FF or AAA-PBP (DSC)
- 1 seat that could go either FG or Ind (DSW)

This would give:
FG 50-52
FF 44-46
SF 22-23
Ind 20-23
Lab 6-7
AAA-PBP 5-7

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Scotland and London use computers to count STV elections (SV, in the case of London).  It's done there by scanning paper ballots, and seems to work pretty well.

[Јas]

Statement released by Fianna Fáil leader, Michael Martin, this evening.

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https://www.fiannafail.ie/statement-from-fianna-fail-leader-micheal-martin-td-5x/

[Хahar 🤔]

Is one of these "core principles" the dress code that the Oireachtas so desperately needs?

[Јas]

Recount completed in Longford-Westmeath; 12th count declared official.

Longford-Westmeath
Seats: 4
Quota: 11,056

	Count 12
Troy (FF)	Elected (Count 1)
Moran (i)	10,108
Burke (FG)	7,629
Hogan (SF)	6,641
Penrose (Lab)	6,356
Bannon (FG)	5,947
Gerety-Quinn (FF)	5,907

Gerety-Quinn eliminated.

[Јas]

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/rotating-taoiseach-plan-key-to-any-ff-fg-alliance-party-sources-1.2554693

[afleitch]

I do wonder if the occasionally suggested move towards a Scotland style AMS system might be raised again. I mean it's great to have independents, but perhaps not so many of the f-ckers.

[Јas]

Scotland and London use computers to count STV elections (SV, in the case of London).  It's done there by scanning paper ballots, and seems to work pretty well.

The cost and lack of a paper trail destroyed the previous effort to introduce e-voting.
This option though sounds interesting.

[Јas]

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/rural-independents-may-set-up-group-to-push-community-issues-1.2554764?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[ObserverIE]

Dispatch from your Longford correspondent:

Moran (Ind) 11,120 elected
Burke (FG) 7,877
Hogan (SF) 7,370
*Bannon (FG) 7,077
*Penrose (Lab) 7,058

Moran's surplus of 71 to be distributed next. Labour looking for another full recount afterwards. Returning Officer threatening to postpone count until Saturday because of lack of staff. Final margin between Bannon and Hogan also likely to be too close to call => third full recount.