Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[DavidB.]

I am still wondering how parties try to maximize their number of TDs in constituencies. I have seen they sometimes try to convince voters from certain areas within the constituency to vote for candidate X and voters from other areas for candidate Y. Is this widespread? And are there any other tactics?

I am still curious about this.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Anyway, it's finally confirmed... Sean Haughey has been elected. *sigh*

[Antonio the Sixth]

God, it's been two days and 7 seats have yet to be filled...

[RodPresident]

Anyway, it's finally confirmed... Sean Haughey has been elected. *sigh*

And Lyons is out. Ó Ríordáin is 3rd, but he isn't safe, as Haughey and Lyons preferences can push him out. I believe in a recount for this race.

[ObserverIE]

Early morning dispatch from your Longford correspondent:

In a surprise twist, the transfers of Kevin "Boxer" Moran's surplus of 71 votes have turned a 19-vote lead for James "Bonkers" Bannon of FG into a two-vote lead for Willie Penrose of Labour.

Another full recount - requested by FG this time rather than Labour - has been ordered to begin at 10.30 tomorrow morning.

[Јas]

Yesterday's progress,  after a lot of recounting, in Dublin Bay North below.
Counting to resume later today.


Dublin Bay North
Seats: 5
Quota: 12,271

	Count 12	Count 13	Count 14
Bruton (FG)	Elected (Ct. 8)
Haughey (FF)	11,659	11,956	12,754
Ó Ríordáin (Lab)	7,544	8,547	9,947
McGrath (IndAll)	7,353	8,069	9,553
Broughan (i4C)	7,003	7,735	9,477
Mitchell (SF)	8,386	8,596	9,047
Lyons (AAA-PBP)	7,209	7,760	8,476
Power (i)	6,674	7,668
O'Callaghan (SD)	4,796

[Kevinstat]

Early morning dispatch from your Longford correspondent:

In a surprise twist, the transfers of Kevin "Boxer" Moran's surplus of 71 votes have turned a 19-vote lead for James "Bonkers" Bannon of FG into a two-vote lead for Willie Penrose of Labour.

Another full recount - requested by FG this time rather than Labour - has been ordered to begin at 10.30 tomorrow morning.

How the heck did Bannon jump ahead of Penrose from 400 votes down (409 to be precise) on an FF exclusion anyway?

[Kevinstat]

Early morning dispatch from your Longford correspondent:

In a surprise twist, the transfers of Kevin "Boxer" Moran's surplus of 71 votes have turned a 19-vote lead for James "Bonkers" Bannon of FG into a two-vote lead for Willie Penrose of Labour.

Another full recount - requested by FG this time rather than Labour - has been ordered to begin at 10.30 tomorrow morning.

How the heck did Bannon jump ahead of Penrose from 400 votes down (409 to be precise) on an FF exclusion anyway?

A possible answer just occurred to me.  Geographic-based voting.  Are Gerrity-Quinn and Bannon both from Longford and Penrose from Westmeath?  Still, a bit surprising to me that Gerrity-Quinn's exclusion helped Bannon so much.

[Јas]

I am still wondering how parties try to maximize their number of TDs in constituencies. I have seen they sometimes try to convince voters from certain areas within the constituency to vote for candidate X and voters from other areas for candidate Y. Is this widespread? And are there any other tactics?

I am still curious about this.

The most common tactic occurs during candidate selection - ensuring you pick candidates from different parts of the constituency.

Parties will then often divide the constituency between candidates, such that it becomes 'their' territory to canvass in.

[Јas]

Tuesday's front pages...

[Јas]

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kenny-to-consult-ministers-on-moves-to-form-government-1.2554811

[FredLindq]

Fine Gael + Labour = 53
Fianna Fail + Independents = 67
Fine Gael + Fianna Fail = 90

What kind of Independents are there? How many hare left leaning, centrist or right leaning?

What ways forward is there for Fianna Fail in the future in order to enter the government without FG?

[YL]

Early morning dispatch from your Longford correspondent:

In a surprise twist, the transfers of Kevin "Boxer" Moran's surplus of 71 votes have turned a 19-vote lead for James "Bonkers" Bannon of FG into a two-vote lead for Willie Penrose of Labour.

Another full recount - requested by FG this time rather than Labour - has been ordered to begin at 10.30 tomorrow morning.

The figures on
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/constituencies/longford-westmeath/
are still stuck on count 12, before the elimination of Gerety-Quinn.

How far are Penrose and Bannon behind Hogan?

[Јas]

Early morning dispatch from your Longford correspondent:

In a surprise twist, the transfers of Kevin "Boxer" Moran's surplus of 71 votes have turned a 19-vote lead for James "Bonkers" Bannon of FG into a two-vote lead for Willie Penrose of Labour.

Another full recount - requested by FG this time rather than Labour - has been ordered to begin at 10.30 tomorrow morning.

How the heck did Bannon jump ahead of Penrose from 400 votes down (409 to be precise) on an FF exclusion anyway?

A possible answer just occurred to me.  Geographic-based voting.  Are Gerrity-Quinn and Bannon both from Longford and Penrose from Westmeath?  Still, a bit surprising to me that Gerrity-Quinn's exclusion helped Bannon so much.

Your hypothesis is correct - however it's surprising to Mr Bannon that they didn't help him enough:

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/longford-westmeath-full-recount-agreed-after-request-by-fine-gael-1.2549677

[Јas]

Count Schedule for Today

10.30   Dublin Bay North resumes counting

10.30    Longford-Westmeath full re-count

12.00   Dublin South Central resumes recheck

[Јas]

Early morning dispatch from your Longford correspondent:

In a surprise twist, the transfers of Kevin "Boxer" Moran's surplus of 71 votes have turned a 19-vote lead for James "Bonkers" Bannon of FG into a two-vote lead for Willie Penrose of Labour.

Another full recount - requested by FG this time rather than Labour - has been ordered to begin at 10.30 tomorrow morning.

The figures on
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/constituencies/longford-westmeath/
are still stuck on count 12, before the elimination of Gerety-Quinn.

How far are Penrose and Bannon behind Hogan?

Current standings:

Longford-Westmeath
Seats: 4
Quota: 11,056

	Count 12	Count 13
Troy (FF)	Elected (Ct.1)
Moran (IndAll)	10,108	11,120
Burke (FG)	7,629	7,877
Hogan (SF)	6,641	7,370
Bannon (FG)	5,947	7,077
Penrose (Lab)	6,356	7,058
Gerety-Quinn (FF)	5,907

Count 14 being the distribution of Mr Moran's surplus, as described by Observer above - and the Westmeath Examiner below. Before Count 14 was was formally declared, the returning officer agreed to Mr Bannon's request for a recount.

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http://www.westmeathexaminer.ie/news/roundup/articles/2016/03/01/4115341-longfordwestmeath-count-enters-dramatic-fourth-day/

[Јas]

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http://www.thejournal.ie/the-next-taoiseach-2-2634284-Feb2016/

[Јas]

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http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/ff-newbies-in-favour-of-deal-with-fine-gael-34500292.html

[Јas]

[Јas]

One more constituency complete...


Dublin Bay North
Seats: 5
Quota: 12,271

	Count 12	Count 13	Count 14	Count 15
Bruton (FG)	Elected (Ct. 8)
Haughey (FF)	11,659	11,956	12,754
Broughan (i4C)	7,003	7,735	9,477	11,565
Mitchell (SF)	8,386	8,596	9,047	11,348
McGrath (IndAll)	7,353	8,069	9,553	11,191
Ó Ríordáin (Lab)	7,544	8,547	9,947	10,329
Lyons (AAA-PBP)	7,209	7,760	8,476
Power (i)	6,674	7,668
O'Callaghan (SD)	4,796

Haughey's surplus not being sufficient to materially affect the result, it is left undistributed.
Ó Ríordáin eliminated.
Broughan, Mitchell, and McGrath deemed elected without reaching the quota.

Count complete.

[Kevinstat]

Any guesses as to how Bannon's vote would have transferred if he had been knocked out in Count 12 instead of Gerrity-Quinn?  While at first I thought Gerrity-Quinn's exclusion was not as good for Penrose as Bannon's exclusion would have been (although I still thought Penrose wouldn't lose ground, not considering geography), Bannon seems like an outspoken "Longford loyalist" while I know Gerrity-Quinn was basically "parachuted" (in the sense of FF Party HQ and TD Robert Troy manufacturing her nomination) into the Longford FF position, and Bannon's vote (up through Count 12) might have been more likely to stay in Longford than Gerrity-Quinn's (up to that point).  Of course she would have had to rely on transfers from a Westmeath-based Labour candidate to get her ahead/not push her behind the Westmeath-based Sinn Féin candidate.  Bannon will likely have a better shot than Gerrity-Quinn would have once the other one of those two (already happened) and Penrose (if that happens) is excluded, due to the FG-Labour transfer agreement, although much of Penrose's vote would likely transfer to Burke and only the amount if any that Burke is pushed over the quota would go to Bannon.

If Penrose survives Count 14, there will be no Longford-based candidates left, correct?  If so, Bannon's vote will likely transfer quite strongly to his running-mate Burke, giving the latter a surplus that would seemingly go mostly to Penrose (and likely very little to SF).  But will it be enough?

[Kevinstat]

So, the 9 seats left should break down:
- 1 FG basically guaranteed (L.-W.)
- 1 Ind basically guaranteed (L.-W.)
- 1 FF basically guaranteed (DBN)
- 1 seat that could go either FF, FG, SF or Lab (L.-W.)
- 3 seats to split between Ind, SF, Lab, and AAA-PBP. One of the two independents will probably get in (DBN)
- 1 seat that could go either FF or AAA-PBP (DSC)
- 1 seat that could go either FG or Ind (DSW)

This would give:
FG 50-52
FF 44-46
SF 22-23
Ind 20-23
Lab 6-7
AAA-PBP 5-7

With 155/158 seats declared, the current party standings are:
FG 49
FF 44
SF 23
Ind 13
IA 6
Lab 6
AAA-PBP 5
Ind4Chg 4
SD 3
Greens 2

the 3 seats left should break down:
- 1 FG basically guaranteed (L.-W.))
- 1 seat that could go to either SF, Lab or (with a recount reversal, potentially) FG (L.-W.)
- 1 seat that could go either AAA-PBP or (with a recount reversal) FF (DSC)

This would give:
FG 50-51
FF 44-45
SF 23-24
Ind 17-x (13?)
Lab 6-7
IA 6
AAA-PBP 5-6
Ind4Chg x (4?)
SD 3
Greens 2

[Јas]

Any guesses as to how Bannon's vote would have transferred if he had been knocked out in Count 12 instead of Gerrity-Quinn?  

Observer would be the authority on this obviously; but,at a guess, heavily enough to elect Burke, but substantially enough to also save Gerety-Quinn from the next elimination.

If Penrose survives Count 14, there will be no Longford-based candidates left, correct?  If so, Bannon's vote will likely transfer quite strongly to his running-mate Burke, giving the latter a surplus that would seemingly go mostly to Penrose (and likely very little to SF).  But will it be enough?

I'd be surprised if it isn't.

[ObserverIE]

Longford-Westmeath: if Penrose holds, then I think he would be a 60:40 favourite; if Bannon gets back in the lead, I would favour Hogan by about 52:48. The issue is that Burke (FG) is still in the race and 3,100 short of the quota - both candidates will massively favour Burke over the other but probably not by enough to push Burke over the quota. I haven't seen Bannon's preferences but I have looked at Penrose's and the trend was consistent across them.

Bannon is widely detested in Longford, even by his own party's supporters. He's inarticulate, pretty stupid and a hearse-chaser (he's turned up at local removals and then asked whose funeral it was before trooping up to be seen commiserating with the family). Compared to him, the Healy-Raes are international statesmen. He got the least number of preferences from the set of transfers (Gerety-Quinn -> Moran) which have caused the latest recount, and those would be Longford votes.

[ObserverIE]

Any guesses as to how Bannon's vote would have transferred if he had been knocked out in Count 12 instead of Gerrity-Quinn?  

Observer would be the authority on this obviously; but,at a guess, heavily enough to elect Burke, but substantially enough to also save Gerety-Quinn from the next elimination.

I don't think Burke would have got enough to take him over the quota. I suspect the transfer to Gerety-Quinn might actually have been weaker than in the other direction.