Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Јas]

@ObserverIE: Any update on progress in Kenagh?
What chance that things might get wrapped up there today?

[Јas]

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https://twitter.com/Longford_Leader/status/704700175751606272

[Јas]

Despite several suggestions through the afternoon that a declaration in Dublin South Central was imminent, it seems consistently out of reach.

Below from Gavin Reilly, Political Correspondent, Today FM - about an hour ago:

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https://twitter.com/gavreilly


Also worth noting Catherine Ardagh's comments reported on The Journal this morning:

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http://www.thejournal.ie/brid-smith-ardagh-south-central-2633578-Feb2016/

[aross]

Given the way Ireland transfers surpluses, couldn't a full recount lead to a materially different result despite no counting errors having taken place either time?

[Јas]

Given the way Ireland transfers surpluses, couldn't a full recount lead to a materially different result despite no counting errors having taken place either time?

Good question.

The answer should be no - because the recount doesn't select involve a new decision as to which ballots to transfer.

The original ballots selected for transfer are the same ones used in the recount - unless the recount results in a change in the order of elimination/election; or specific ballots are found to have errors and need to be replaced.

[Јas]

Following extensive adjudication on 170 questionable votes, a result has been declared in Dublin South Central. The presumptive result appears to be unchanged.

Dublin South-Central
Seats: 4
Quota: 8,572
 

	Count 11
Ó Snodaigh (SF)	Elected (Ct. 7)
Collins (i4C)	Elected (Ct. 8)
Byrne (FG)	Elected (Ct. 9)
Smith (AAA-PBP)	7,879
Ardagh (FF)	7,844

SMith deemed elected without reaching the quota.


And with that only Longford-Westmeath remains outstanding.

[Јas]

[Јas]

The result in Longford-Westmeath won't have much relevance for government formation.
It's importance to the next Dáil may well be with regard to the standing of the Labour Party.

Under the Dáil's Standing Orders, seven members is the key cut-off for defining 'groups' - an important distinction in terms of recognition for speaking time, putting questions to ministers, and membership of certain committees.

For those parties that have fewer than 7 TDs, and independents - they can collectively form a 'Technical Group' to gain similar, though slightly lesser, standing than a party with 7 or more members.

Falling short of 7 TDs, and so being part of the Technical Group, would be mean a significant drop in the potential prominence of a party in the Dáil. For example, if the Labour Party had 7 TDs, they could take part in the Leaders' Questions (Irish equivalent of PMQs) every week - but, if they are part of the Technical Group, they would share participation, probably on a rotational basis, with the other members of the TG - maybe getting to ask such questions only monthly or less often.

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http://www.oireachtas.ie/documents/publications/modsod20151217.pdf

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Broughan, Mitchell, and McGrath deemed elected without reaching the quota.

Salt wounds rubbing etc.

[YL]

Early morning dispatch from your Longford correspondent:

In a surprise twist, the transfers of Kevin "Boxer" Moran's surplus of 71 votes have turned a 19-vote lead for James "Bonkers" Bannon of FG into a two-vote lead for Willie Penrose of Labour.

Another full recount - requested by FG this time rather than Labour - has been ordered to begin at 10.30 tomorrow morning.

How the heck did Bannon jump ahead of Penrose from 400 votes down (409 to be precise) on an FF exclusion anyway?

A possible answer just occurred to me.  Geographic-based voting.  Are Gerrity-Quinn and Bannon both from Longford and Penrose from Westmeath?  Still, a bit surprising to me that Gerrity-Quinn's exclusion helped Bannon so much.

Your hypothesis is correct - however it's surprising to Mr Bannon that they didn't help him enough:

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/longford-westmeath-full-recount-agreed-after-request-by-fine-gael-1.2549677

I think I'm beginning to understand why Longford voters transferred to Westmeath candidates rather than to him.

[ObserverIE]

I think I'm beginning to understand why Longford voters transferred to Westmeath candidates rather than to him.

*Longford voter waves hello*

Penrose by 7 according to the best reports I've heard. Certainly the FG legal team emerged from the adjudication area with faces like thunder. Penrose should now win on the final count by a couple of hundred.

Alan Kelly and Seán Sherlock among the leadership candidatessenior Labour figures making themselves visible at the count. AK47 is as pleasant in person as one would expect.

[ObserverIE]

@ObserverIE: Any update on progress in Kenagh?
What chance that things might get wrapped up there today?

Apologies: I spent most of the day staring at pencilled numbers and indentations on ballot papers, which experience is no longer on my bucket list and shouldn't have been in the first place.

The rumour I heard before I left is that the final count will proceed tomorrow morning.

[ObserverIE]

Good to see the Layder join the Guardian and the New York Times on this site's must-read list. Only right and proper too

[Antonio the Sixth]

For some reason, RTE doesn't show the count results in Longford-Westmeath anymore.

Can someone post the numbers at which it's standing right now?

[Јas]

For some reason, RTE doesn't show the count results in Longford-Westmeath anymore.

Can someone post the numbers at which it's standing right now?

The last declared count is still Count 13.


Longford-Westmeath
Seats: 4
Quota: 11,056

	Count 12	Count 13
Troy (FF)	Elected (Ct.1)
Moran (IndAll)	10,108	11,120
Burke (FG)	7,629	7,877
Hogan (SF)	6,641	7,370
Bannon (FG)	5,947	7,077
Penrose (Lab)	6,356	7,058
Gerety-Quinn (FF)	5,907

Count 14 is the distribution of Moran's surplus, which reported puts Penrose very narrowly ahead.
Prior to Count 14 being declared, Bannon was granted a recount which has been going on for some time.

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/longford-westmeath-just-three-votes-separate-battling-fg-and-labour-tds/


Our own correspondent at the count suggests Penrose's lead may be as robust as 7.


At any rate, the count was suspended late last night at 02.15.
It is scheduled to recommence later this today at 14.30.

[Јas]

Wednesday's papers...

[Antonio the Sixth]

For some reason, RTE doesn't show the count results in Longford-Westmeath anymore.

Can someone post the numbers at which it's standing right now?

The last declared count is still Count 13.


Longford-Westmeath
Seats: 4
Quota: 11,056

	Count 12	Count 13
Troy (FF)	Elected (Ct.1)
Moran (IndAll)	10,108	11,120
Burke (FG)	7,629	7,877
Hogan (SF)	6,641	7,370
Bannon (FG)	5,947	7,077
Penrose (Lab)	6,356	7,058
Gerety-Quinn (FF)	5,907

Count 14 is the distribution of Moran's surplus, which reported puts Penrose very narrowly ahead.
Prior to Count 14 being declared, Bannon was granted a recount which has been going on for some time.

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/longford-westmeath-just-three-votes-separate-battling-fg-and-labour-tds/


Our own correspondent at the count suggests Penrose's lead may be as robust as 7.


At any rate, the count was suspended late last night at 02.15.
It is scheduled to recommence later this today at 14.30.

Haha, what a mess.

So Kevinstat's assessment still valid. FG is all but assured one more seat, and the final one could go to either SF, Labour or FG in that order of likelihood.

[Јas]

So Kevinstat's assessment still valid. FG is all but assured one more seat, and the final one could go to either SF, Labour or FG in that order of likelihood.

Burke (FG) is de facto elected.

The recount is really about seat #4.
I'd guess though that the order of likelihood is Labour, FG, SF.

[Јas]

Statement from Enda Kenny yesterday...

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http://www.todayfm.com/Enda-Kenny-says-FG-will-try-to-form-government

[Јas]

Various notes on inter- and intra-party discussions yesterday...

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https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kenny-moves-to-start-talks-on-government-formation-1.2556122

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http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/greens-and-independents-willing-to-talk-to-all-parties-34503734.html

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http://www.irishexaminer.com/election2016/election2016-news-and-analysis/td-bids-to-form-grouping-to-represent-rural-ireland-385065.html

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So will Labour, AAAPBP, SD, Greens and all the Indies have to share a single technical group?

[Јas]

Enda has been back in front of some microphones this afternoon...

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/enda-kenny-says-people-should-continue-to-pay-water-bills-1.2556777

[DL]

I'm sure this question has been asked a zillion times, but why can't Fine Gael and Fianna Fail do a grand coalition (or simply merge into one big mainstream centre-right quasi-christian democratic party for that matter?). As far as I can tell they are literally identical ideologically. I know that they are descended from people who were on opposite sides in a conflict almost a hundred years ago - but seriously - aren't they two centre-right pro-business parties that would easily fit within the ideological space occupied by the British Tory party?

Is this not a case of what is known as 'the narcissism of small difference"?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

To put simply, because they are the other side. And there is a lot of loathing between the constituencies of the opposing parties: the snobby Anglo-blooded South Dubliner vs the populist, boarish FF'er dislike each other intensely, even if practically they have no difference in ideology

They also really don't want to give the position of opposition to Sinn Fein and certainly don't wabt the electorate to coalace around idealogical grounds. That would be terrible.

In truth, I think FF will simply die out. Their electorate is very old, they've lost the bulk of the working-class and a lot of the patronage that kept the party a lucrative venture to join is less appealing nowadays.

[ObserverIE]

To put simply, because they are the other side. And there is a lot of loathing between the constituencies of the opposing parties: the snobby Anglo-blooded South Dubliner vs the populist, boarish FF'er dislike each other intensely, even if practically they have no difference in ideology

They also really don't want to give the position of opposition to Sinn Fein and certainly don't wabt the electorate to coalace around idealogical grounds. That would be terrible.

In truth, I think FF will simply die out. Their electorate is very old, they've lost the bulk of the working-class and a lot of the patronage that kept the party a lucrative venture to join is less appealing nowadays.

No, they may have been in mortal danger in the aftermath of 2011, but they sensibly repositioned themselves as being clearly to the left of FG, which had the benefit of being more appealing to their traditional natural supporters (a glance at the demographic support bases in MRBI opinion polls will show that the two main parties' bases are fairly distinct). FG helped in this by consciously modelling themselves on the British Tory Party, which went down a storm in south Dublin but bombed everywhere beyond that - Ireland is not England relocated a couple of hundred kilometres to the west.

The only way in which I think they will now die out is if they agreed to go into government as a junior partner to FG, which would be kryptonite to their support base. I don't think they will fully return to their pre-2011 support levels, but I think it's quite possible that with renewed credibility in terms of size and with a leader who looks and sounds more energetic and sharper than his rivals, they could retake the position as the largest party next time round.