Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh yes, and the Seanad still needs to be elected. Former Progressive Democrat leader Michael McDowell is running for a university constituency! Fun!

[ObserverIE]

From Our Own Correspondent:

Nothing happening at 2am, after a day of nothing happening.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the hell is going on with this recount? Shouldn't it have been finished by today?

[Јas]

2nd Recount complete.

Longford-Westmeath
Seats: 4
Quota: 11,050

	Count 13	Count 14
Troy (FF)	Elected (Ct. 1)
Moran (IndAll)	11,122
Burke (FG)	7,880	7,890
Hogan (SF)	7,366	7,386
Penrose (Lab)	7,055	7,087
Bannon (FG)	7,071	7,081

Count 14 was the distribution of Moran's surplus.
No further surpluses to redistribute - Bannon eliminated.
Count 15 will be the distribution of Bannon's votes.


One may note that the quota changed during the recount, as decisions changed on what were spoiled ballots.
Original Quota: 11,056
Recount 1 Quota: 11,049
Recount 2 Quota: 11,050

[Јas]

A statement issued by James Bannon on his elimination includes the following:

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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ccmf06eWwAAbDvH.jpg

[Јas]

On the difference between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, our beloved old philosopher king, Jackie Healy-Rae once said:

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[Јas]

Thursday's front pages:

[Јas]

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http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/fine-gael-ministers-hold-latenight-talks-about-kennys-leadership-34506839.html

[Јas]

Some notes on reported inter- and intra-party talks...

As noted above FG's TDs will meet in Dublin today; so too will FF.


The Examiner reports that "Sinn Féin has begun talks with independent TDs about potentially forming a new government".


With regard to the Social Democrats, the Independent reports:

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On the Greens, the Independent also reports:

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The Healy-Rae bloc want a Minister for Rural Affairs:

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Independent Catherine Zappone wants to be part of the action to, per the Examiner:

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[Јas]

Final result expected from Longford-Westmeath soon.

Reports indicate that Burke and Penrose will be declared elected.

[Јas]

Longford-Westmeath
Seats: 4
Quota: 11,050

	Count 13	Count 14	Count 15
Troy (FF)	Elected (Ct. 1)
Moran (IndAll)	11,122
Burke (FG)	7,880	7,890	11,385
Penrose (Lab)	7,055	7,087	8,505
Hogan (SF)	7,366	7,386	7,824
Bannon (FG)	7,071	7,081

Count 15: Distribution of Bannon's votes.

Burke surpasses the quota and is deemed elected.

Burke's quota being insufficient to save Hogan and with no other votes to distribute, Hogan is eliminated, and Penrose deemed elected without reaching the quota.

[Јas]

Summary of Election Results for the 32nd Dáil

Constituency	FG	FF	SF	Lab	AAA-PBP	i4C	SocDems	Green	Ind. Alliance	Independents
Carlow-Kilkenny	2	2	1
Cavan-Monaghan	1	2	1
Clare	2	1								1 (Harty)
Cork E	1	1	1	1
Cork NC	1	1	1		1
Cork NW	1	2
Cork SC	1	2	1
Cork SW	1	1								1 (Collins)
Donegal	1	2	1							1 (Pringle)
Dublin Bay N	1	1	1			1			1 (McGrath)
Dublin Bay S	2	1						1
Dublin Central	1		1							1 (O’Sullivan)
Dublin Fingal	1	1	1	1		1
Dublin MW	1	1	1		1
Dublin NW	1		1				1
Dublin Rathdown	1							1	1 (Ross)
Dublin SC	1		1		1	1
Dublin SW	1	1	1		1					1 (Zappone)
Dublin W	1	1		1	1
Dún Laoghaire	3				1
Galway E	1	1							1 (Canney)
Galway W	2	1								2 (Grealish, Connolly)
Kerry	1	1	1							2 (Healy-Raes)
Kildare N	1	2					1
Kildare S	1	2
Laois	1	1	1
Limerick City	1	1	1	1
Limerick County	2	1
Longford-Westmeath	1	1		1					1 (Moran)
Louth	2	1	2
Mayo	2	2
Meath E	2	1
Meath W	1	1	1
Offaly	1	1	1
Roscommon-Galway		1							1 (Fitzmaurice)	1 (Naughten)
Sligo-Leitrim	1	2	1
Tipperary		1		1						3 (Lowry, McGrath, Healy)
Waterford	1	1	1						1 (Halligan)
Wexford	2	1		1		1
Wicklow	2	1	1				1
TOTAL	50	44	23	7	6	4	3	2	6	13

Totals
50 Fine Gael
44 Fianna Fáil
23 Sinn Féin
  7 Labour
  6 AAA-PBP
  4 Independents 4 Change
  3 Social Democrats
  2 Green
  6 Independent Alliance
13 Independents

158 Total

[FredLindq]

Were does the twelve independents stand for?

[Јas]

Were does the twelve independents stand for?

See here.

[Хahar 🤔]

Leo Varadkar!

[YL]

More from Longford-Westmeath:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fg-s-james-bannon-very-hurt-by-negative-online-comments-1.2558309

[ObserverIE]

More from Longford-Westmeath:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fg-s-james-bannon-very-hurt-by-negative-online-comments-1.2558309

No one forced him to tell the FF candidate to sit down at a debate because he "didn't want to hit [her]".

No one forced him to call the Green candidate "a big sissy" at another debate on the same day.

No one forced him to get into a row with a SF canvassing team over SF (and Labour) leaflets being taken out of letterboxes a week before the end of the campaign.

He's always been an idiot. In opposition, he was able to roar and shout on the opposition backbenches to his heart's content (which is where the "Bonkers" nickname came from), but once he got into government, he had to keep quiet.

The FG county councillors were already on manoeuvres at the count as to who would succeed him as FG nominee at the next election, always assuming that the 40% gender quota at the next election doesn't stymie their cunning plans.

[Antonio the Sixth]

RTE says Penrose has been elected.

[DavidB.]

RTE says Penrose has been elected.

... which means Labour has 7 seats, and full speaking rights in the next Dáil.

[ObserverIE]

RTE says Penrose has been elected.

... which means Labour has 7 seats, and full speaking rights in the next Dáil.

Joanie needs to send Bonkers a bouquet at least. Or a wreath.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, we have:

FG: 50 (-26)
FF: 44 (+24)
SF: 23 (+9)
Lab: 7 (-30)
AAA-PBP: 6 (+1)
SD: 3 (new)
Green: 2 (+2)
Ind: 23 (+9)

At least the FF+FG total is down from 2011. Guess that's the only way to spin this positively.

[Јas]

More notes on inter and intra-party discussions:

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http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/fine-gael-warns-kenny-not-to-seek-return-to-power-at-any-cost-34510652.html

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http://www.irishexaminer.com/election2016/election2016-news-and-analysis/fine-gael-divided-on-any-deal-with-old-enemy-385529.html

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http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/news/noonan-warns-fine-gael-tds-they-can-expect-another-election-inside-next-two-years-34509352.html

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http://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016/miche%C3%A1l-martin-starts-bid-to-enter-government-1.2559304

[ObserverIE]

http://www.rte.ie/radio1/doconone/2016/0226/770950-sandbags-not-handbags/

[Harry Hayfield]

So, we have:

FG: 50 (-26)
FF: 44 (+24)
SF: 23 (+9)
Lab: 7 (-30)
AAA-PBP: 6 (+1)
SD: 3 (new)
Green: 2 (+2)
Ind: 23 (+9)

At least the FF+FG total is down from 2011. Guess that's the only way to spin this positively.

So 158 members means 80 for a majority. Well, clearly Fine Gael are the largest party so they get first dibs at creating a majority. As Wikipedia describes them as liberal conservative and Christian democratic let's see what other parties are liberal and conservative and Christian. Well Renua are described as being conservative (but with no seats that's not going to go anywhere) and so they are stumped.

So let's see who Fianna Fail do, as an Irish Republican party, well there the clear match is Sinn Fein so let's add FF's 44 to Sinn Fein's 23 and we end up with 67 (still some 13 short) at which point they get stumped.

So the way I see there are three possible options. Option 1: Grand Coalition of FF and FG (94), Option 2: FF and the Independents (67) as a minority or Option 3: We do the whole thing again in September.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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What kind of demented logic is that? "People hated our policy so much they kicked half our party out of office, so we absolutely must not change it in any way!"