Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

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To give some context for the thread - below are the most recent polls (with links to the full released results) and the results of the 2011 General for comparison.

	GE	RedC	MB	B&A
	2011	28 June	28 June	18 July
Fine Gael	36	28	29	24
Labour	19	7	6	8
Fianna Fáil	17	20	23	18
Sinn Féin	10	18	21	17
Green	2	2	1	1
Renua	-	1	1	1
Socialist	1	0	2	NI
People Before Profit	1	NI	1	NI
i/O	13	24*	16	30

^NI Not specifically included in poll results
* Broken down as 23 for Independents, 1 for Other

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We're probably now under or around 40 days out from the election.

So with 40 constituencies, maybe we can try and take a look at one a day until polling? Let's find out...

First up - Carlow-Kilkenny.

Candidates

Fine Gael	Pat Deering TD, Cllr. David Fitzgerald, John Paul Phelan TD
Labour	Ann Phelan TD
Fianna Fáil	Bobby Aylward TD, John McGuinness TD, Cllr. Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor
Sinn Féin	Cllr. Kathleen Funchion
AAA-PBP	Conor MacLiam, Adrienne Wallace
Renua	Cllr. Patrick McKee
SocDems	-
Green	Cllr. Malcolm Noonan
Indepenents	Noel Walsh, Paddy Manning

Carlow-Kilkenny is one of the few constituencies to see no boundary change, nor a loss of representation since the last election in 2011.

In 2011, it split 3 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF - good vote management by FG maximised their returns, and too many candidates from FF helped squeeze them to but one. Their affected candidate, Bobby Aylward, won the by-election in the constituency last year caused by the movement of Phil Hogan from the cabinet to the European Commission.

This time, I doubt anyone believes FG could take 3 seats. Phelan should be the safest of the three - it seems to me a pretty close call between Deering and Fitzgerald for the other seat.

FF only need to do marginally better than 2011 to hold two seats - and the general polling indicates that they should manage just that. It will be interesting to see if their vote management improves this time.

Labour have historically done well in Carlow-Kilkenny - and despite losing seats, IIRC the party overperformed in the local elections compared with Labour in the rest of the country. To have any chance, Phelan will need to transfer very well from the minor left-ish candidates and from geographically nearby candidates. A tall order.

Kathleen Funchion (SF) is running for the Dáil for the fourth time - building her vote each time, getting to 16% in the by-election last year, pretty much exactly what will be needed this time. I doubt she'll match it in the general, but 10-12% looks perfectly plausible and probably good enough to suck in enough transfers to get through.

Of the others, Malcolm Noonan is one of the longest standing Green county councillors in the country - holding his since since 2004. Though the Greens took a seat here in 2007, Noonan would need some freakish luck to make it this time.

Patrick McKee defected to Renua from FF last year and won 9.5% of the vote in the by-election. I suspect he benefited from heightened attention for Renua at the time and would do well to hold that level of support. I doubt he can gather the necessary transfers to be truly competitive - but then there's not much data to go on here.

I would wonder whether a good single AAA-PBP candidate would have been able to outpoll the Greens and maybe push ahead of Phelan to give them a perfectly credible result. As it is they seem to have cemented their status as also-rans.

The constituency has never returned an independent TD - and it doesn't look like breaking that streak is at all likely this time either. Noel Walsh, running on an anti-cronyism platform, has a personal best of 0.36% from his previous two efforts to get elected. Paddy Manning, known for campaigning on pro-life and anti-marriage equality issues, is the other indie.


RTÉ prediction: 2 FG, 2 FF, 1 SF
Irish Times prediction: 2 FG, 2 FF, 1 Lab
Jas prediction: 2 FG (Phelan, Deering), 2 FF (McGuinness, Aylward), 1 SF (Funchion)

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Day 2... Cavan-Monaghan

Candidates

Fine Gael	Heather Humphreys TD, Joe O'Reilly TD
Labour	-
Fianna Fáil	Mike Durkan, Brendan Smith TD, Cllr. Niamh Smyth
Sinn Féin	Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin TD, Sen. Kathryn Reilly
AAA-PBP	-
Renua	-
SocDems	-
Green	Micheál Callaghan
Direct Democracy	Michael McDermott
Indepenents	Sean Conlan TD, Jimmy Mee, John Wilson

Cavan-Monaghan loses a substantial part of west Cavan to the Sligo-Leitrim constituency, and with it one of its seats to become a 4-seater constituency.

In 2011, it split 3 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF - FG gaining 3 seats on 39% of the vote, SF got 1 seat from 26% of the vote, and FF 1 seat from 20% of the vote.

FG are down to 2 candidates, from 4 last time, losing their third candidate when the increasingly scandal-prone Sean Conlan left the party recently. Minister for the Arts, Heritage and the Gaeltacht, Heather Humphries shouldn't face any difficulties in re-election. Now having the Monaghan FG vote to herself, she will also take votes from Cootehill in Cavan, and as the most prominant (maybe only?) Protestant on the ballot, will pick up votes elsewhere in Cavan ahead of her running-mate. Indeed, I suspect her relative strength and the loss of west Cavan might make things more uncomfortable than they should be for Joe O'Reilly.

Conlan himself I presume has seen the writing on the wall for some time. Whatever chance he has (and I suspect it's not much at all), he is probably correct that he'll get a better return as an indie than under the FG flag.

SF's Ó Caoláin has been solidly returned each time since 1997. The question is whether the party can seriously push for the second seat with 27 year old Senator Kathryn Reilly. Cavan is a more difficult hunting ground for SF than Monaghan - they'll need excellent vote management, and string transfers from the also-rans to stand a chance.

FF's Brendan Smith should be straight-forwardly re-elected. Formerly a stronghold constituency for the party - their resilience in Cavan was reasonably impressive in the 2014 local elections, but it won't be enough to seriously contest for a second seat. Such is the party's difficulties that finding a second candidate was a difficult enough chore. Just about all their sitting councillors in Monaghan ruled themselves out - and their search for a female Monaghan based candidate proved in vain. In the end they've gone with party activist Mike Durkan from Clones (Monaghan), and local election poll-topper Niamh Smyth in Cavan - one presumes at least in part with the gender quota in mind. 

Being one of the most conservative constituencies in the country, Labour, the Social Democrats and the Alphabet Left have decided to save their deposits. The Greens are planning to run in every constituency - and Cavan-Monaghan should be a contender for one of their weakest returns.

Renua's "pro-family, pro-life" candidate was essentially deselected in December after allegedly making homophobic comments online.

Of the indies, Cavan-based John Wilson might be the most likely contender. The nephew of a former FF Government Minister - and indeed brother to a sitting FF Senator, his came to public attention  from the garda whistleblower controversy.

Jimmy Mee is Monaghan-based and is known for charity fundraising. His priorities are hospitals, student grants, and rural crime. He's unlikely to trouble the election count staff too much.

Finally, there is Michael McDermott of Direct Democracy Ireland. Their wiki page gives the background on them. Mr McDermott was active in opposing the introduction of water charges in Cavan. DDI's record polling return so far is 6.5% in the 2013 Meath East by-election. I don't expect any of their candidates to reach those dizzying heights this time out.


RTÉ prediction: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF, and 1 FG-SF toss-up
Irish Times prediction: 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF
Jas prediction: 2 FG (Humphries, O'Reilly), 1 SF (Ó Caoláin), 1 FF (Smith)

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Next up... Clare

Candidates

Fine Gael	Pat Breen TD, Joe Carey TD, Cllr. Mary Howard
Labour	Michael McNamara TD
Fianna Fáil	Cllr. Clare Colleran-Molloy, Timmy Dooley TD, Michael McDonagh
Sinn Féin	Noeleen Moran
AAA-PBP	-
Renua	-
SocDems	-
Green	Fergal Smith
Fís Nua	Niamh O’Brien
Indepenents	Cllr. Ian Lynch, Richard Cahill, Cllr. Ann Norton, Michael Harty

Clare remains unchanged as a 4-seater constituency this time out.

In 2011, FG took 2 seats on 42% of the vote; FF got 1 on 22%; and Labour 1 on 15%. The rest of the vote was split between one strong independent and many other also-rans.

FG run their two incumbents again here, along with their only elected female county councillor in the constituency. They decidedly did not select either of their local Senators - with one's thoughts about running for Renua instead seemingly having failed to be enough to get onto the ticket. I'd be surprised if both incumbents don't get returned - though I note the Irish Times is predicting against it.

For FF, incumbent Timmy Dooley is a near certainty to be returned. Running alongside him are Clare GAA Chairman Michael McDonagh, and FF's only elected female county councillor Clare Colleran-Molloy. One suspects McDonagh is the one to watch of the two.

"Maverick" Labour TD Michael McNamara seeks re-election too. He lost the party whip over the sale of Aer Lingus, but was welcomed back just in time for nomination. Both RTÉ and the Irish Times seem to regard him as touch and go for a seat - I don't really see it happening though, barring something of a surge in Labour polling generally.

SF run Noeleen Moran who failed to get elected to the council in 2014. Clare has historically been a weak territory for SF and I don't see that changing - though again the pundits seem to be talking up Ms Moran's chances.

There is still talk of a potential Renua candidate emerging here - but no sign of one as of yet.

Of the others, Clare has the potential to return an independent. Former TD James Breen - who has been competitive here in the past 3 elections has declined to run this time. Two sitting councillors Ann Norton, a disability campaigner, and Ian Lynch, formerly of FG, have an established political base and could do well - but I suspect that Dr. Michael Harty might do best of these. He's running on the issue of the decreasing number of rural-based doctors.


RTÉ prediction: 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab/i/FF/SF
Irish Times prediction: 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 i
Jas prediction: 2 FG (Breen, Carey), 1 FF (Dooley), 1 i (Harty)

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Cavan-Monaghan loses a substantial part of East Cavan to the Sligo-Leitrim constituency, and with it one of its seats to become a 4-seater constituency.

West and a substantial bit of mid-Cavan actually, going in a drunken line from Lough Gowna on the Longford border up to beyond Belturbet on the Fermanagh border.

*facepalm*
Indeed. Merging east Cavan with Sligo-Leitrim would be quite a proposition.

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Smith actually loses his home territory in the Panhandle and may be vulnerable to Smyth in Cavan (this is going to confuse the hell out of outsiders) and if Durkan is a complete unknown she might be able to pick up votes across the border in south Monaghan (though you would be a better judge of that than I).

Smith has tried to make himself more visible around Monaghan himself - especially during the past few months when no apparent Monaghan based candidate could be found.

This is one battle though that I won't be able to offer any real judgment on until later into the campaign.

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Cork East

Candidates

Fine Gael	Tom Barry TD, Cllr. Noel McCarthy, David Stanton TD
Labour	Sean Sherlock TD
Fianna Fáil	Barbara Ahern, Cllr. Kevin O’Keeffe
Sinn Féin	Cllr. Pat Buckley
AAA-PBP	Ciara Leonardi Roche
Renua	Sen. Paul Bradford
SocDems	Ken Curtin
Green	Natasha Harty
Indepenents	Cllr. Claire Cullinane, Cllr. Mary Linehan Foley, Cllr. Kieran McCarthy

Cork East's boundaries remain unchanged and it retains its 4 seats for this election.

In 2011, FG took 2 seats on 37% of the vote; Labour 1 on 31%; and Sinn Féin 1 seat on 11%. Fianna Fáil's 17% split between two candidates got them nothing.

That FG run their incumbents again is unsurprising, their 3rd candidate is of interest though. Last October, Fermoy-based Cllr. Noel McCarthy left the Labour Party and he was expected to contest the election as an independent - however by end November he had secured a place on FG's ticket. He had a very strong local election, topping the poll in Fermoy, and can expect to impact on both  Labour's Sean Sherlock vote, and that of Mallow-based Tom Barry. David Stanton looks safe enough at the other end of the constituency.

Fianna Fáil are running Barbara Ahern and Cllr. Kevin O'Keefe - both children of the former Fianna Fáil TDs for the constituency. To get a seat, FF should need only a quite marginal improvement on 2011 - and have good transfer flow between their candidates.

Sinn Féin hit an unusually rocky patch in Cork East last year. Sitting TD Sandra McLellan won't be contesting re-election following an intra-party squabble resulting in the loss of 2 councillors - one of whom, Cobh-based Kevin McCarthy, will be contesting the election as an independent. The outcome might just be a rare SF loss of a seat.

Labour's Sean Sherlock is likely to see his party vote share collapse, just like many of his party colleagues, but nonetheless he should be in contention for a seat at the end of the day.   

Senator, and former TD, Paul Bradford is running for the party led by his wife. While he might get a reasonable number of votes, getting elected would appear quite unlikely.

RTÉ prediction: 1 FG + any 3 of Lab, SF, Renua, or either FF candidate.
Irish Times prediction: 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 i
Jas prediction: 1 FG (Stanton), 1 FF (O'Keefe), 1 Lab (Sherlock), 1 SF (Buckley)

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Great to have you back Jas

Thanks

However, I will say so far from your predictions I think you might be a bit optimistic for FF and a bit too pessimistic for FG. Fianna Fail are polling little better than in 2011 once the MoE is taken into account and their by-election record was atrocious. Even their supposed HISTORIC COMEBACK(tm) during the locals is imho exaggerated by the lack of non-FF/FG candidates in many rural counties and a stronger focus on local issues than they will be in the GE (plus a greater incumbency factor than there will be this time around). Fine Gael on the other hand have the advantage of the stability card and being the only possible government party after all is said and done and I would not underestimate that fact.

Yeah, you're certainly right that FF's poll numbers are only a little better than in 2011 - though I do expect them to be less transfer-phobic than 5 years ago. The gains I'm putting them down for so far (subject to change, etc., etc.) in Carlow-Kilkenny and Cork East only require a quite modest improvement in their fortunes. I'm honestly not sure yet how many seats I think they're worth overall yet. I agree that their much-touted 2014 Locals is overstated in significance.

I appreciate that FG's message will be all about stability - and that this will resonate with particular parts of the electorate - but I do wonder how easy a sell that will be when they can't hope to win a majority and its highly questionable whether the Labour party will be in a position to prop them up.

Also Jas, what do you think of John Wilson's chances on your turf? He strikes me as the sort of candidate who will (most likely) pick up a thousand or so votes and disappear in the middle counts or (far less likely) top the poll and get well over a quota on the first count.

At present, I suspect the former is quite a bit more likely than the latter. Maybe later in the campaign I'll re-assess.

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/miriam-lord-taoiseach-drops-hints-as-d%C3%A1il-s-end-nears-1.2511558

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The Irish Times got IpsosMRBI to run a number of focus groups which I thought made interesting reading. It contains little of solace for the Labour party.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2016-what-irish-voters-really-think-1.2515570

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The 31st Dáil has been dissolved.

The General Election has been confirmed for Friday, 26 February.

The 32nd Dáil will convene on Thursday, 10 March.

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https://twitter.com/MHealyRae

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Galway East

Candidates

Fine Gael	Ciaran Cannon TD, Paul Connaughton TD
Labour	Sen. Lorraine Higgins
Fianna Fáil	Colm Keaveney TD, Cllr. Ann Rabbitte
Sinn Féin	Annmarie Roche
AAA-PBP	-
Renua	-
SocDems	-
Green	Máiréad Ní Chróinín
Direct Democracy	Aengus Melia
Independents Alliance	Cllr. Sean Canney
Independents	Cllr. Michael Fahy

Galway East was decimated by the constituency commission losing 32 electoral divisions and over 20,000 people to the new Roscommon-Galway constituency. It also drops to becoming a 3-seater.

In 2011, in Galway E, FG took 2 seats on 44%; FF took 1 seat on 18%; and, Colm Keaveney for Labour took the last seat on 13%. Independent Seán Canney polled 9%; SF 6%; the Greens 1%.

The FG ticket comprises their two incumbents - Paul Connaughton in the south of the constituency and Ciaran Cannon in the north. Connaughton took over his seat from his father - an 8-term incumbent; he will suffer more from the constituency changes as it is north-eastern Galway which has disappeared. Cannon was the last leader of the Progressive Democrats and was granted refugee status by FG on their dissolution. It is very difficult to judge who might be favoured between them.

Similarly, it's not clear who the stronger FF candidate is. Their incumbent, Colm Keaveney was elected as a Labour TD - the first ever Labour TD in Galway East. He had been running for Labour in Galway East since 1997 and had been for quite a while, the only Labour councillor on Galway County Council, having developed a solid base in Tuam. In 2012 he was elected Chairman of the Labour Party. He voted against cuts to the respite care grant, which formed part of the 2013 budget, and lost the party whip. A year later, he caused some surprise by joining FF - being one of their most vocal critics of Labour and the government. The move was not wholly welcomed within Galway - but Keaveney managed to establish a sufficient base to get himself reasonably comfortably elected onto the ticket for this election.

His running mate, Cllr Anne Rabbitte is Portumna based in the far south of the constituency. She topped the poll in Loughrea in the 2014 locals - when FF performed slightly stronger in the south of the constituency than the north. WHo is the leadng candidate may depend on how much of the Labour vote Keaveney built up stays with him - or goes stays with the Labour party.

Labour's candidate is Senator Lorraine Higgins. Last time out, as Keaveney's running-mate, she polled 6% (to his 7.2%). Higgins has failed in all previous election attempts (Galway Council Council, Dáil, Seanad, European Parliament) and isn't likely to break the streak now. Her transfers though could be critical. Keaveney is also based in the southern end of the constituency.

SF have never been a factor in Galway East. This election though could well see them overtake Labour here and maybe give them better standing to challenge next time out. Their candidate is a complete unknown to me.

The two other candidates to note are the independents. Michael 'Stroke' Fahy, from Loughrea, polled 9% in the local elections there in 2014 and has been on the council since forever. His 2007 imprisonment for misappropriation of council funds, subsequently quashed, hasn't undult impigned his political career.

The other independent, Sean Canney, from Tuam, is a real contender for a seat. He topped the poll in the local elections in Tuam in both 2009 and 2014; and in the last general polled 9%. A generic rural independent - he's likely to prove transfer friendly, and benefit from the good national polling numbers for independents.


RTÉ prediction: 2 FG+ 1 FF or i
Irish Times prediction: 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 i
Jas prediction: 1 FG (Cannon), 1 FF (Keaveney), 1 i (Canney)

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WP 1 (-1)

Are they even running enough candidates to make 1%?

Five declared candidates so far - in:
- Cork North Central
- Dublin Central
- Dublin Mid-West
- Dublin North West
- Meath East

Which as well as being ordered alphabetically, is a not unreasonable approximation of their likely best results in order.

In 2011, 1% equated to 22,203 votes. I'd say it's about 50-50 whether any of the WP candidates will break 1,000 votes.

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Galway West

Candidates

Fine Gael	Sean Kyne TD, Sen. Hildegarde Naughton, John O’Mahony TD
Labour	Derek Nolan TD
Fianna Fáil	John Connolly, Cllr. Mary Hoade, Éamon Ó Cuív TD
Sinn Féin	Sen. Trevor Ó Clochartaigh
AAA-PBP	Tommy Holohan
Renua	Nicola Daveron
SocDems	Niall Ó Tuathail
Green	Seamus Sheridan
Direct Democracy	Ruairí O'Neill
Independents	Cllr. James Charity, Cllr. Catherine Connolly, Cllr. Mike Cubbard, Noel Grealish TD, Sen. Fidelma Healy-Eames, Tommy Roddy

Galway West remains a 5-seater having grown its territory taking in 7,500 people from the Ballinrobe area of south Mayo.

In 2011, in Galway W, FG took 2 seats on 31%; FF took 1 seat on 21%; Labour 1 seat on 12%; and independent Noel Grealish a seat from 10%. SF polled 6%, the Greens 2%, and independent Catherine Connolly 8%.

Just nineteen candidates to pick from here - best get on with it...

FF are running 3 candidates - Éamon Ó Cuív and two people who aren't Éamon Ó Cuív and won't get elected. The boundaries and running mates are very favourable to Ó Cuív who should get something around a quota himself and his running mates not much.

Of FG's incumbents, Brian Walsh resigned his seat just a few weeks ago on health grounds. Seán Kyne is based in Connemara (with Ó Cuív) and might have had the most marginal seat in the country at the last election - he held off independent Catherine Connolly by 17 votes after several days counting and recounting. So far as I can recall Mr Kyne has been among the more anonymous TDs in the Dáil - nonetheless incumbency and geography stand him as favourite of the FG cabal to get re-elected.

John O'Mahony is also a FG incumbent - though was elected from Mayo in 2011, with 3 others from FG. This being unsustainable, O'Mahony was strongly advised to run in Galway West which has taken in southern Mayo where O'Mahony can expect to be dominant.

Senator Hildegard Naughton is FG's third candidate, based in Galway City. Naughton may be hampered by the presence of the hilarious Oranmore-based Sen. Fidelma Healy-Eames on the ballot. Healy-Eames was on the FG ticket 5 years ago. She left the party over what she regarded as the government's too liberal abortion legislation. She subsequently warned the nation that allowing same-sex marriage would lead to the end of mothers' day. Unfortunately, the next parliament will have to get by without her wisdom.

Derek Nolan is the incumbent Labour candidate. Having topped the poll in 2011, Nolan, like his party colleagues elsewhere faces a challenge as to whether he can get re-elected at all. Nolan is possibly the key beneficiary from the resignation of FG's Brian Walsh - as both are Galway city based. Labour maintained 11% of the vote in the Galway city local elections in 2014 - but less than half that elsewhere in Galway West. Nolan will need transfers from somewhere (FG?) to stay in the hunt.

A further inhibiting factor for Nolan is that former Labour member Senator Trevor Ó Clochartaigh is again the SF candidate here. He is also Galway City based also. There's never been much evidence that Ó Clochartaigh is a particularly effective vote getter - but one suspects he'll benefit from SF's rising tide and from the exceedingly divided field to at least being in contention.

The independents to watch are incumbent TD Noel Grealish and Cllr. Catherine Connolly. Grealish has been a TD since 2002, initially a Progressive Democrat, and then an independent following their implosion. Very quiet during this Dáil - Grealish is the type of independent a Government just shy of a majority will seek to bring onside. His established base should keep him well placed in this field of candidates, and his independent brand should ensure transfers flow easily enough to see him returned.

Catherine Connolly is ex-Labour and also Galway city based. Just 17 votes shy in 2011, she improved her return in the 2014 locals and is likely to benefit from Labour's ebb. She won't not be competitive.

RTÉ prediction: 1 FF, 1 FG +3?
Irish Times prediction: 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab, 2 i
Jas prediction: 1 FF (Ó Cuív), 1 FG (Kyne), 1 SF (Ó Clochartaigh), 2 i (Grealish, Connolly)

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Our first (that I know of) constituency poll...

TG4 commissioned Ipsos MRBI to poll Donegal

%
19 Doherty (SF) 
17 McConalogue (FF) 
13 McHugh (FG) 
13 Gallagher (FF)
  9 Mac Lochlainn (SF)
  7 Pringle (i)
  7 Shiels (i)
  4 Harte (FG) 
  4 McBrearty (i)
  3 Jackson  (i)
  2 Doherty (SF) 
  2 McGarvey (i) 
  2 Kennedy (i)


Looks like they intend to poll Kerry and Galway West in the coming weeks.

http://www.tg4.ie/en/corporate/press/press-releases/2016-2/09-02-16/

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And another constituency poll is out.

The Irish Independent commissioned Millward Brown to poll Dublin West...



http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/joan-burton-staring-at-end-of-political-career-34443089.html

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By the by, some electoral trivium, the good people of Listowel in County Kerry are in the middle of a re-count of the local election for the area from 2014.

More here: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kerry-local-election-recount-suspended-over-disputed-ballots-1.2529277

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Breaking news from Kerry on nomination day...

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http://www.radiokerry.ie/news/danny-healy-rae/


I'll take another look at my Kerry prediction later, but my initial instinct is that two Healy-Raes in the Dáil is a real possibility.

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Close of nominations was noon yesterday.

Below are my numbers cobbled together from various sources... E&OE

Included also is the number of female candidates. For those unaware, rules regarding State funding for parties changed since the last election. Parties running greater than 70% of their candidates of one gender would suffer significant financial penalty under the new rules.

	Candidates	Candidates
Party	Total	Female
Fine Gael	88	27
Fianna Fáil	71	22
Sinn Féin	50	18
Green	40	14
Labour	36	13
AAA-PBP	31	13
Renua	26	8
Independent Alliance	21	5
Direct Democracy	18	3
SocDems	14	6
Independents 4 Change	5	2
Workers	5	2
People’s Convention	4	1
UnitedPeople	3	1
Catholic Democrats	3	2
Irish Democratic Party	2	1
WUAG	1	0
Fís Nua	1	1
Communist	1	0
Independents	131

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What is the depost threshold?

Prospective candidates have 3 ways of getting onto the ballot:

• Being nominated by a suitably registered political party
• Being nominated by 30 constituents
• Paying a 500 euro deposit

IIRC, most independents pay the deposit. It is recoupable in full if, by the time of their elimination in the count, they accumulated more than a quarter of the quota for election.

The main reason the deposit threshold is relevant though is because it is the same threshold used for candidates to qualify to recoup some of their election expenses (up to a maximum of €8,700 depending on the constituency size).

Given the Green Party's decision to contest all constituencies (despite, in even the most optimistic scenarios, being only competitive in a very small number of seats) - this threshold will an important marker across the country as it will determine just how expensive the election will prove to be for them.

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Another constituency poll...

The Irish Independent commissioned Millward Brown to poll Mayo (4-seater)...

%
24 Kenny (FG)
23 Ring (FG)
19 Calleary (FF)
11 Conway-Walsh (SF)
  9 Mulherin (FG)
  8 Chambers (FF)
  3 Cowley (i)


The poll involved face-to-face interviews with 502 adults at 46 sampling points in Mayo between February 9 and 11. The margin of error is 4.4pc.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/paul-moran-electorate-loyal-to-fg-but-feels-unloved-by-kenny-34453359.html

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There's also some nationwide threshold for getting some public funding/reimbursement, isn't there.  That might be why their fielding candidates everywhere, perhaps with an eye toward meeting the national threshold in the next election. 

Under the Electoral Acts, parties that garner over 2% of the first preference vote nationally at the last general election are entitled to funding.

All qualifying parties receive a basic set rate of €126,574 per annum. In addition, there is a pot of annual funding (approximately €4.8 million last year) which is distributed amongst the qualifying parties according to the share of the FPV they have received. This funding limited to electoral activities.


There are two other state supports for parties.

The Parliamentary Activities Allowance is funding direct to party leaders and independent TDs. It is awarded based on the number of TDs elected to the Dáil, rather than the share of the vote. It’s worth:

• €64,368 per TD for the first 10 TDs
• €51,493 per TD for the next 20 TDs
• €25,754 per TD for the remainder of TDs in a parliamentary party

In addition, Independent TDs receive €37,037 per annum.

Parties in Government have their allocation reduced by one third to recognise the supports offered them from the Civil Service.

If a TD leaves or is expelled from his or her party, that party keeps receiving the money awarded based on the fact that the TD in question was elected as a party TD.

The Parliamentary Activities Allowance cannot be used for electoral activities.


The third element of State support is additional staff allocated to Parties. These party secretariats assist in the running of the legislative activities of the Parliamentary Party.

[Јas]

Donegal polled again.
http://www.highlandradio.com/2016/02/18/latest-tribune-poll-sees-fg-support-drop-while-independents-gain-ground/

This time by the local paper the Tirconaill Tribune.
Polling conducted from the 12th-15th; I don't have who the polling company was yet.
Sample size reported as 1,000.


Below is that detail, plus the numbers from the recent TG4/Ipsos MRBI poll (conducted 4-5 Feb).
 

	Tirconaill	TG4
	Tribune	Ipsos MRBI
Doherty (SF)	18.9	19
McConalogue (FF)	13.7	17
Gallagher (FF)	10.0	13
Pringle (i)	9.2	7
McHugh (FG)	8.7	13
Shiels (i)	8.2	7
Mac Lochlainn (SF)	7.5	9
Doherty (SF)	5.0	2
Jackson  (i)	4.9	3
Harte (FG)	4.6	4
McBrearty (i)	3.0	4
Kennedy (i)	3.0	2
McGarvey (i)	1.6	2
Flanagan (GP)	0.6
Mooney (i)	0.6
Nic Fhearraigh (FN)	0.4

Donegal is a 5-seater, so the quota is 16.67%.

[Јas]

And another...

The Irish Independent commissioned Millward Browne to poll Dublin Bay South.

%
20 Murphy (FG)
17 Andrews (SF)
13 Creighton (Renua)
13 Humphries (Lab)
11 O'Callaghan (FF)
10 O'Connell (FG)
  7 Ryan (Green)


No sign of the other 8 percentage points in the article. The three candidates not mentioned are the AAA-PBP, SocDems, and independent Mannix Flynn.

DBS is a 4-seater, so has a 20% quota.

Sample size: 498
Conducted: Feb 12-16

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/fg-has-creightons-dil-seat-firmly-in-its-sights-34467153.html

[Јas]

Polling opens shortly for the 2,000 voters on the islands off the west coast.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0225/770651-donegal-islands-voting/