Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Cassius]

What are the chances of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail Coalition?  Labour has recovered from their depths in recent months but if they fall again is it possible the two center right parties will team up despite their historical animosity to keep out Gerry Adams? I can't see Fianna Fail ever willing to be the junior partner is a coalition.

At the same time is there any real talk about a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein deal?  Thats probably Michael Martin's only shot at becoming Taoiseach at this rate

Whilst I'm no expert on Irish politics, I imagine that a coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail would likely destroy the latter for good, given that, based off the current polls, it's unlikely that FF would be the larger party in a putative coalition. However, given the historical animosity between the two parties and their supporters, I find it unlikely that the two could form a coalition anyway.

[Cassius]

What are the chances of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail Coalition?  Labour has recovered from their depths in recent months but if they fall again is it possible the two center right parties will team up despite their historical animosity to keep out Gerry Adams? I can't see Fianna Fail ever willing to be the junior partner is a coalition.

At the same time is there any real talk about a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein deal?  Thats probably Michael Martin's only shot at becoming Taoiseach at this rate

Whilst I'm no expert on Irish politics, I imagine that a coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail would likely destroy the latter for good, given that, based off the current polls, it's unlikely that FF would be the larger party in a putative coalition. However, given the historical animosity between the two parties and their supporters, I find it unlikely that the two could form a coalition anyway.

The Irish party system really is a strange and complex thing.  After studying it for some months I still dont really understand what substantive differences FF and FG have with each other.  FF just seems to oppose everything FG does reflexively because history.

Well, from what I can gather there was traditionally (I'm not so sure now given the enormous ructions the Irish political system has undergone over the last 6 years or so) a big difference between the base of support for the two parties; most obviously, whether they were in favour of the Treaty or not, but also class differences (Fine Gael's support traditionally being stronger amongst the middle classes and the big farmers, whilst Fianna Gail having a more working class and small farmer base of support). Also, I would argue that 'history' shouldn't be discounted as a reason to support a particular party or vice versa; after all, if my ancestors had yours shot up against a wall, would you be inclined to support my political party (especially given that such things are still, jut about, within living memory)?

[Cassius]

Is there any particular reason as to why Fianna Fáil are polling a little bit better (and ahead of Sinn Fein) than they were a few months ago?

[Cassius]

Apparently Ruarí Quinn went on a bit of a mad one at a Labour party think in.

[Cassius]

Any particular reason as to why Ireland counts the day after the election? I mean, when you think about it, it does make practical sense, but it seems rather unusual. Also, what time might actual results start filter in through from the count?

[Cassius]

Any particular reason as to why Ireland counts the day after the election? I mean, when you think about it, it does make practical sense, but it seems rather unusual.

Because counting will take a long time - most constituencies will take all day tomorrow to get to a result.

Tomorrow evening returning officers will make decisions on whether to continue counting into Saturday night or suspend counting to resume Sunday, depending on their view of how long the process will take.

It's entirely possible that 1 or 2 constituencies will still be counting, or more probably recounting, come Monday.

Also, what time might actual results start filter in through from the count?

Unofficial 'tallies' will be widely reported early in the counting process from all count centres - giving a good impression of the direction of things.

First count declarations will probably start around lunchtime.

Ah I see, cheers.

[Cassius]

FF apparently crushing it in Offaly (previously part of Laois-Offaly, Brian Cowen's old stomping ground and one of only two constituencies where FF retained more than one seat in 2011) with 39%; FG on 15%, SF and Renua tied at 7.5%, Greens at 1.5% and Independent/Other at 25.5%.

[Cassius]

Lucinda Creighton and James Reilly both (at this early stage) in trouble, in each of the respective Dublin Bay constituencies.

[Cassius]

Good Lord, Shane Ross' accent

[Cassius]

The Finance Minister Michael Noonan may be in trouble in Limerick City.

[Cassius]

FF could, possibly, take three seats in Carlow-Kilkenny.

[Cassius]

Galway East has completed its first count - Independent Sean Canney and Fine Gaeler (and former PD) Ciaran Cannon, looking likely to fill 2 of the seats.

[Cassius]

Dublin Rathdown declares - Shane Ross tops the poll, with FG's Josepha Madigan and Alan Shatter in second and third respectively. FF, Labour and the Greens all bunched around 10%.

[Cassius]

Regarding Dublin Rathdown, it seems quite possible that Alan Shatter will lose his seat (and he's been around for decades) and almost certain that Alex White, the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources, will do so too.

[Cassius]

Labour utterly crushed in Dublin Mid-West, falling 26%. Sinn Fein has its first TD of the night, Eoin O'Broin. Meanwhile, FF's Sean Fleming tops the poll and is elected in Laois.

[Cassius]

Martin and McGrath both elected on the first count in Cork South Central.