Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

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The Republic of Ireland will probably have an election in late 2015, or early 2016; so I thought I'd jump the gun on the official thread as we are already seeing some selection drama.

I assume most people know about this, but here's a summary:

The Fine Gael/Labour coalition led by Taoiseach Enda Kenny (FG) and Tanaiste Joan Burton (Lab) have led a socially liberal, yet austere administration. It has been one plagued with controversy around new water fees and a property tax; which has been especially toxic to junior partner Labour. That said, Kenny is (if polls hold) likely to be the first FG leader ever to be reflected as Taioseach.

The two main opposition parties are populist "natural party of governing" Fianna Fáil, struggling to deal with its reputation from the discredited Ahern/Cowan years and its historic defeat in 2011; and the surging leftist republicans Sinn Fein, which are restricted by their vague economic platform and several skeletons in their closets from the Troubles, and a nasty Paedogedden related scandal.

Minor parties (which have polled extremely well this Dail) include the Greens (evicted from the Dail following their doomed coalition with FF); several far-left outfits (of which the most important are Socialist Party front group the Anti Austerity Alliance, Socialist Worker front group People Before Profit and Tipperary based one-man band WUAG); Renua Ireland, a vague centre-right grouping formed by former FG TD Lucinda Creighton; the Independent Alliance (not a party) a loosely affiliated group of local heroes led by popular Independent Shane Ross and the new Social Democrats, a centre-left split of a dissident Labour TD and two indies.

Voting is done by STV, under a new map. It will then be followed by a strange election to Ireland's weirdo upper house the Seenad, where all the terrible politicians who can't get elected to anything go.

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Oh I know the greens haven't polled well at all, I meant the minor parties as a collective. (I think the Greens could grab a seat or two - Ryan almost got into the European Parliament last year)

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Huh, Fianna Fail are coming up with a Basic Income policy of all things. I suppose they're tacking to the left?

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In their infinite wisdom, Fianna Fáil are adding Sean Haughey back into the Dublin Bay North mix; in what looks like an explosive mixture of egos,nincluding (so far) Haughey, the FF councillor he was beaten by, tobacco loving commie Finian McGrath, jilted Fianna Fáil senator Averil Power, a sitting Labour Minister of State, ex-Labour TD Tommy Broughan, a former Fine Garl Lord Mayor of Dublin, Richard Bruton the FG minister who attempted to oust Enda Kenny in 2010 and a Renua TD. How do you fit all that lot in a five-seater?

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Just a question about preferences - do most voters fully rank every single candidate? What are the sort of "typical" ballot orders for your average votes?

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http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/confirmed-candidates-for-next-general_3.html

Cool maps I founded the nominated candidates so far. Also the two major trot groups have merged, or something?

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There was a big rumpus last week at the FF conference over gender quotas, or something.

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Fianna Fail: Nationalise the banks!

Also:

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http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/candidates/754246-michael-stroke-fahy/

^ never heard a Galway accent before. pretty interesting.

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Renua leaflet:

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And to think Kennedy was supposed to be a contender...

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Wow RTE's website is really ugly.

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*FINE GAEL, FIANNA FAIL MAY FORM IRISH COALITION: IRISH TIMES

I'm willing to bet they won't, and if they do it would fail spectacularly in a bonfire of vanity.

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"Independent Alliance" (i.e. a group of nobodys with no idealogical bond beyond wanting to follow Ross's coattails)

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Paul " YOU DEPUTY STAGG" Gogarty in 6th

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brother of the former Teashock elected. Unusually good result for Renua as well.

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Trot takes the lead in Don Laoghaire, but nobody past the quota yet.

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Labour's Alex White TD is officially been kicked out!

In SW there is a huge dogpile, but FF, Murphy of the PBP. two Blueshirts, Crow (shinner) and maybe even Zappone are in the running.

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Mary Lou McDonald (SF) reelected in Dublin Central, Gary Gannon (SD) takes 3rd.

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/boucherhayes/status/703648433106763776

in an STV election especially, that could change the result to a surprising extent. Could a defeated candidate try and declare the result in DBS void? Let's hope so!

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Dublin Rathdown is the second constituency to finish. First seat goes to independent Shane Ross, as expected; second seat goes to Fine Gael (not to incumbent Alan Shatter, but rather his running-mate Josepha Madigan); and, out of completely nowhere, the last seat goes to Green Party candidate Catherine Martin.

Outstanding result for the Greens

Means I voted for a winner. Not sure what to feel about that.

For a start we can exclude any possibility of Sinn Fein or the Greens taking it...

(Sorry)

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Dublin Bay South Count 1

FG * Murphy , E 16.5% 6567
FG O'Connell , K 13.6% 5399
FF O'Callaghan , J 11.5% 4575
GP Ryan , E 11.4% 4529
RN * Creighton , L 10.7% 4229
LAB * Humphreys , K 10.6% 4205
SF Andrews , C 9.5% 3774
SD Lynch , G 6.7% 2652
AAA-PBP Mooney , A 4.4% 1728
IND Flynn , M 3.8% 1525

terrible result for lucinda.

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Dún Laoghaire finished, with Bailey and O'Connor (both FG) joining Boyd-Barrett.

It seems South Dublin was pretty satisfied with FG overall. Perhaps that is why Lucinda burnt out?

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Worst news of the day: Paul Gogarty is knocked out.

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Why aren't surpluses automatically reallocated once they occur?