Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Green Line]

What are the chances of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail Coalition?  Labour has recovered from their depths in recent months but if they fall again is it possible the two center right parties will team up despite their historical animosity to keep out Gerry Adams? I can't see Fianna Fail ever willing to be the junior partner is a coalition.

At the same time is there any real talk about a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein deal?  Thats probably Michael Martin's only shot at becoming Taoiseach at this rate

[Green Line]

What are the chances of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail Coalition?  Labour has recovered from their depths in recent months but if they fall again is it possible the two center right parties will team up despite their historical animosity to keep out Gerry Adams? I can't see Fianna Fail ever willing to be the junior partner is a coalition.

At the same time is there any real talk about a possible Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein deal?  Thats probably Michael Martin's only shot at becoming Taoiseach at this rate

Whilst I'm no expert on Irish politics, I imagine that a coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail would likely destroy the latter for good, given that, based off the current polls, it's unlikely that FF would be the larger party in a putative coalition. However, given the historical animosity between the two parties and their supporters, I find it unlikely that the two could form a coalition anyway.

The Irish party system really is a strange and complex thing.  After studying it for some months I still dont really understand what substantive differences FF and FG have with each other.  FF just seems to oppose everything FG does reflexively because history.

[Green Line]

Is there any particular reason as to why Fianna Fáil are polling a little bit better (and ahead of Sinn Fein) than they were a few months ago?

I think Sinn Feinn lost a little bit of its support after the furor over the water charges died down. They were riding high before then. Some of their support probably shifted back to FF, who was only half heartedly opposing the water charges.

[Green Line]

I am unconvinced that independents will not form the largest group in the next Dáil.

The independent numbers have dropped significantly as the election has drawn closer.  

"Other" was 13% of the vote in 2011 (and was polling at 15%-16% up to the election).  The past three December polls have put it at 18%-19%.  There's no way they are overtaking the three main parties with those numbers.

[Green Line]

Averil Power and Claire Underwood have an uncanny resemblance.

[Green Line]

What a weird woman from AAA on RTÉ.

She sounded like she was on drugs.

Irish politicians are much more open and less scripted than Americans.  It's refreshing