Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

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I've never followed an Irish election before, but I've spent a few days reading about your completely ludicrous party system, including reading this thread and its 2011 predecessor, and while I don't really have much to add I must say that I'm greatly enjoying the individual constituency overviews/the discussion here as a whole and I'm quite excited for the election

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Went with Dublin Rathdown, since that seems to be the most common one used and it makes things convenient for comparison's sake.

SF: 32 (!)
Peter Mathews 31
FG (Shatter) 30
FF 29
Green 27
FG (Madigan) 26
Labour 19
Shane Ross 0

Funnily enough, they have recorded Shane Ross's stance as 'equivocal' on every issue.

EDIT: Upon further review of his Wikipedia page I don't think I would be a big supporter of Shane Ross. "Promotes himself as standing up for small shareholders and consumers" sounds nice but doesn't excuse opposition to fluoridation and other such wacko positions.

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And another constituency poll is out.

The Irish Independent commissioned Millward Brown to poll Dublin West...



http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/joan-burton-staring-at-end-of-political-career-34443089.html

Party totals and changes since the 2011 election FWIW:

FG 22 (-7)
SF 20 (+14)
FF 17 (-) (although the second FF candidate last time is polling 9% as an independent)
SP 15 (-4)
Lab 10 (-19)
GP 2 (+1)

On those figures, I'd think it quite possible that McGuinness (the disenchanted FFer) could overhaul Joan Burton in the later counts.

Pardon my ignorance, but isn't Dublin West a 4-seater? Assuming those numbers are accurate (big assumption for constituency-level polling anywhere), wouldn't it be difficult to see anything but Varadkar/Donnelly/Chambers/Coppinger on those numbers? SF and FF seem like comparatively transfer-unfriendly parties, but that gap between Chambers and Burton or McGuinness seems too large to me to be overcome.

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What would be the result of a FG-FF or FF-FG coalition? I'd imagine the junior partner would get PASOK/Lib Dem/FDP-ified and thereafter Irish politics would be polarized on the more traditional left vs. right lines.

So long as FF doesn't fall apart utterly and get replaced by someone else, this coalition is impossible. (Indeed, of the Big Three parties currently in Ireland, FG, FF, and SF, all three of them hate each other enough that any coalition among them is impossible). To be reelected, FG+Labour+palatable independents or small non-Trot left-wing parties need to be a majority, and if they're not then there will probably simply be a second election, which has not happened recently in Ireland but for which there is precedent in living memory.

If FF and SF were willing to form a coalition, then there would be some risk of FG being thrown out of office, but it seems like this is not the case.

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Polls are closed.

Turnout is estimated to be about 66%. Early tallies indicate that it seems to be higher than expected in more working class areas and lower in more middle class areas. Certain parts of Dublin in particular may have seen a higher turnout during the marriage referendum.

Now, we have to wait and see if this mythical Exit poll does indeed exist...

So, speaking very broadly, can we expect a Fine Gael underperformance and a Sinn Fein overperformance within Dublin? Or is that analysis too simplistic? And how reliable are these numbers, anyway?

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Polls are closed.

Turnout is estimated to be about 66%. Early tallies indicate that it seems to be higher than expected in more working class areas and lower in more middle class areas. Certain parts of Dublin in particular may have seen a higher turnout during the marriage referendum.

Now, we have to wait and see if this mythical Exit poll does indeed exist...

So, speaking very broadly, can we expect a Fine Gael underperformance and a Sinn Fein overperformance within Dublin? Or is that analysis too simplistic? And how reliable are these numbers, anyway?

Almost certainly Fianna Fail will underperform in Dublin and Sinn Fein will overperform there; FG are expected to be at about their national average... although in saying that I didn't see that exit poll.

Does the middle class in Dublin vote Fianna Fail today? I was under the impression that their base in the city, especially during the Ahern years, was in the working-class, and when the big collapse happened they mostly left for Sinn Fein, leaving behind a few remnants of FF support.

If the middle-class is the FF base, then who in Dublin votes FG?

And, I hope I don't come off as critical or ignorant; this is the first Irish election I've ever followed, and my knowledge of the system and previous elections has come mostly from a few threads on this website and Wikipedia, so there is no great depth to it. I'd actually like to learn.

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Jesus F**king Christ, this is depressing.

But on the flipside...there's no way these results hold, right? This seems to me like the exact sort of result that would result in a revote.

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Jesus F**king Christ, this is depressing.

But on the flipside...there's no way these results hold, right? This seems to me like the exact sort of result that would result in a revote.

...which will result in a FF landslide and return Ireland to the dark age of Ahern.

Can't say I'm any more enthusiastic about an FF revival than you are, but hopefully the next election will correct and not perpetuate.

EDIT: Could Social Democrats do very well in a revote? They've topped the poll in three separate constituencies, but they aren't standing candidates everywhere. They seem like they fit the Irish zeitgeist fairly well.

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Dublin Rathdown is the second constituency to finish. First seat goes to independent Shane Ross, as expected; second seat goes to Fine Gael (not to incumbent Alan Shatter, but rather his running-mate Josepha Madigan); and, out of completely nowhere, the last seat goes to Green Party candidate Catherine Martin.

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With the count finished in Dun Laoghaire, the final result is 3 FG (one Ceann Comhairle, and then 2 candidates narrowly getting over the hump with Labour preferences) and 1 PBP. Four constituencies -- Dun Laoghaire, Dublin Rathdown, Laois, and Galway East -- are completely finished. Three (Longford-Westmeath, Kerry, and Dublin Bay North) have yet to begin. In the completed constituencies:

Dublin Rathdown: 1 Ind (Ross), 1 FG, 1 GP
Dun Laoghaire: 3 FG, 1 PBP
Galway East: 1 Ind (Canney), 1 FF, 1 FG
Laois: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

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Kildare South, count 4, quota 9,197, 3 seater

Heydon (FG) 10,321 and elected
O'Loughlin (FF) 7,905
Ó Feargaíl (FF) 7,166
Ryan (SF) 5,434
Wall (Lab) 5,154

Next step is the distribution of the FG surplus; I imagine this will move Wall ahead of Ryan and keep him in the race for a bit longer.

Indeed, count 5, two seats left

O'Loughlin 8149
Ó Feargaíl 7343
Wall 5806
Ryan 5485 and out

The SF votes probably go to FF ahead of Labour, right?

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Is there still a chance of Renua winning a seat in Offaly (for some reason)? Barry Cowen of FF has won the first seat, and Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy of FG winning the second looks very likely, but then there's less than 400 votes between three candidates tied for the third seat: Carol Nolan of SF, the second FF candidate (Eddie Fitzpatrick), and John Leahy of Renua. It'll be decided by the preferences of independent Joe Hannigan, so...what kind of voters does Hannigan have? And why was Renua so successful specifically here? It doesn't seem like Offaly was seen as a likely seat for them.

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Count 10, not great for the SDs:

Donohoe 5127
Gannon 3931
O'Sullivan 3923
Burke 3658 and out

Obviously O'Sullivan could ask for a recount, but if those 8 votes hold, wouldn't that be it? Gannon elected as a fourth seat for the SDs?

EDIT: Nevermind, I thought Burke's transfers had already been included in the count. I don't think Burke's votes will go to O'Sullivan by that much, but when the margin is 8 votes, it should be enough.

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Interestingly, in Dublin North-West (the only place FG didn't win a seat in 2011) they are just 100 votes behind FF for the last seat with 3400 Labour votes yet to be transferred. Rare FG pickup?

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There's a 200-vote margin between FF and Lucinda Creighton, the Renua leader, in Dublin Bay South, with 2 FG candidates and the Green leader running ahead, no one elected so far, and 4500 SF and 4500 Labour votes waiting to be distributed. Is it possible for Lucinda to make up that difference? The SF votes seem likely to be unfriendly but I think the majority of them will go Green rather than FF. Labour will go to FF first, but only about 2500 are needed to bring both FG candidates up to the quota.

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Imo, unless there is an Ireland-wide campaign against independents, it's hard to imagine the next election being any more decisive than this one. FF and FG may refuse to work together after just one election where that's the only option, but when that result keeps repeating, well...

EDIT: Is it possible for FG and FF to band together, announce they are forming a caretaker government, and immediately call for new elections? Or would an honest attempt at government formation be made? If so, how long would it be expected to last?

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Guess who has just been elected on the first count in Kerry 7000 votes over quota?

Guess who's in second place, and which two candidates have 38.3% of the vote between the two of them?

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Donohue (FG) and O'Sullivan (IND) elected in Dublin Central

O'Sullivan came back from 7th place and just 8.4% of the vote to win in a three-seater, which was quite impressive (though as a nonpartisan lefty-ish incumbent type, she likely benefited from high name recognition and not really being hated by anyone). Also, Limerick County is in, and the final result there is 2 FG, 1 FF. O'Sullivan had just 1990 first-preference votes, by far the fewest of any candidate elected tonight. (The only one below 3000, in fact, and one of just 3 below 5000).

On a different note, is Dublin Central extremely underpopulated or was turnout there just extremely low? Their quota was just 5922. By comparison, in Limerick County (also a 3-seater), the quota was 11104, nearly double.

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Dublin Bay South, fifth count:

4 seats
Murphy (FG) 6873
Ryan (Grn) 6605
O'Connell (FG) 5773
Humphreys (Lab) 4992
O'Callaghan (FF) 4949
Andrews (SF) 4888
Creighton (Renua) 4820 and out
Count adjourned until 10am.

And with that DBS has adjourned for the night. In Carlow-Kilkenny, the result is 2 FG, 2 FF, and 1 SF; there was some speculation early in the night that FF might hit three seats here, but that thankfully did not take place.

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In Dublin South-Central, 1 FG, 1 SF, and 1 ind (Joan Collins, formerly of the PBP) have all been elected. At the last count, with two candidates (Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fail and Brid Smith of PBP) remaining, the difference between them is just 5 votes -- 7841-7836. This one may see some repeated recounting.

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In Dublin South-Central, 1 FG, 1 SF, and 1 ind (Joan Collins, formerly of the PBP) have all been elected. At the last count, with two candidates (Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fail and Brid Smith of PBP) remaining, the difference between them is just 5 votes -- 7841-7836. This one may see some repeated recounting.

Recounting that must be hell. STV is the wet dream of first-year political science students all around the world, but this election has once again convinced me that it is, in reality, a highly undesirable system, for numerous reasons.

Speaking of recounting that, the RTE website now has Smith ahead of Ardagh by 35 votes, though there is still no checkmark by either woman.

As to ideal political system, every country is different, though my ideal legislative chamber would probably be a mixture of Australia's HoR (with some elected from individual-member STV seats) and Senate (others elected from a list in order to ensure proportionality, with no or very little barrier to getting on the ballot and numbering every candidate mandatory, to ensure that sometimes even very small parties get to have their voices heard).

"Civil War politics" is a problem in Ireland, but if that's what the voters elect as their main political faultline, then so be it; what the country needs in my mind is to fight the epidemic of independent politicians that prevent majorities for all but the most unwieldy of coalitions.

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Do FF preferences generally go to SF or FG? If the latter, then FG can still get 2 seats off of a second-place performance in Wexford; if the former, SF gets a seat there, while the 2 FG candidates must battle for the last seat (right now, there is a 1-vote difference between ex-TD Michael D'Arcy Jr., one of very few unlucky FG TDs to lose in 2011, and incumbent TD Paul Kehoe).

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How likely are AAA-PBP to split back into their constituent parts after the election? Alternatively, how likely are they to merge permanently? In fact, what are the differences between them?