Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Kevinstat]

Does anyone else feel this term has gone by faster than the previous one, even though this term has lasted over a year longer already?  It may just be that I haven't been following things as much, and it could also be because there was never any danger of this government being forced into an early election via loss of confidence, which there was for the previous government.  There also hasn't been a change in Taoiseach since this term began.  Anyway, I'm happy that another Irish election will soon be upon us.

[Kevinstat]

Also:

Oooohh!! Aaaaghhh!! Scary left-wingers!!!

Labour. We're desperate.

Can someone tell me who the people in that picture are (besides Gerry Adams, which was obvious, although I'm sure most if not all of them were just as obvious to the Irish Forumites) and what party each belong to?  If the only parties represented were Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil (it looks like Adams's groom in the picture might be FF leader Micheál Martin), it could be more anti-Sinn Féin (with the implication that Fianna Fáil might govern with them, and perhaps bringing up Fianna Fáil's "Sinn Féin-lite" past (thinking of Charles Haughey here)) than anti-leftist.  But the woman in the picture looks like Clare Daly, and if she's in there than it's tough to see it as at least partly a "red scare" type ad (as opposed to just a "green scare" type ad, although perhaps the term "green scare" doesn't work as well in the Republic as in NI).  Is there anything controversial about any of the non-Shinners in the photo on the "green" front?

[Kevinstat]

Cork NC remains a 4 seater but has seen some boundary changes since 2011 - gaining 17,000 voters within Cork city from Cork SC, and losing 5,000 rural voters to Cork NW. The constituency is pretty evenly split between city proper and Cork county - many in the rural part of the constituency are obviously commuters into the city.

Cork NW is a 3-seater constituency and has gained 5,000 urban voters from Cork NC on the last boundary review. It remains though very much a large rural constituency.

Rural or urban in relation to the constituency as a whole, I take it.  (I know you wrote rural in your Cork NC writeup as it was in the (administrative) Cork County portion.)

Might the shifts of people/territory from Cork SC to Cork NC, and from Cork NC to Cork NW be shifts that (by themselves and together) increase the urban-ness (maybe very slightly for some of them) of all constituencies involved?  Two Will Rogers shifts, as it were?  (He once said something about someone moving from one place to another and either raising or lowering (I think raising) the intelligence of both places.)

[Kevinstat]

Either way as the commission created four county agglomerations like the new Sligo-Leitrim(-South Donegal-East Cavan) constituencies in Dublin old constituency boundaries crossing county council boundaries were eliminated.

Assuming that by "Dublin old constituency boundaries" you mean the traditional/ceremonial/whatever you call it County Dublin, there are actually the same number of boundary crossings as before.  The Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown--"South Dublin" breach is eliminated, but there is still a Dublin City-"South Dublin" crossing with Dublin South-West (which could technically be called two crossings, as the equivalent (in that area) old and new constituency boundaries touch the council boundary in Walkinstown).  And there will now be three constituencies which cross the Dublin City-Fingal boundary, with Dublin West joining Dublin North-West and Dublin North-East -> Dublin Bay North.  The Dublin City-Fingal boundary is coincident with a constituency boundary for a bit more of it's course though, as the new Dublin Bay North-Dublin North Fingal (odd name I'll agree) boundary follows the council boundary (apart from some traffic islands/medians) from the northeast corner of Dublin North West to where the council boundary dips to the south to include Howth Head and Sutton in Fingal.

A breach of the Donegal-Leitrim boundary was practically unavoidable (County Donegal with 5 TDs would have been at +7.47% in a 153-seat Dáil, while County Donegal with 6 TDs would have been at -6.35% in a 160-seat Dáil), and a breach of the external boundary of Cavan-Monaghan even more so (within the largest deviation accepted by past commissions (7.89%, from 1980 on probably) only for a 5-seater with 159 and 160 TDs overall, but still +6.78% in a 160-seat Dáil, the "best case scenario").  Counties Donegal and Cavan are both in Ulster, but not sharing a border I know so I think a "Leitrim bridge" made sense as long as County Leitrim wasn't divided (people there have been through enough).  What might have been better is to make Donegal North-East (possibly renamed Donegal North) a four-seater, put the rest of Donegal in a 3-seat (South )Donegal-Leitrim(-West Cavan) (covering all of Leitrim this time, unlike Cormac Breslin's old constituency, which was a functional 2-seater in 1969 and 1973), pair Sligo with (north)East Mayo for 3 seats, with the rest of Mayo being a 4-seater, and pair Roscommon with Galway for 11 seats, like in the actual plan but without any of Mayo thrown in.  That would have resulted in a 29th seat for Connaght-Ulster (it had 28.8348/158 or 29.0173/159 of the ROI's population as of the 2011 census), which would have either had to come from somewhere else (Munster plus Leinster outside Dublin had 85.3261/158 of the country's population as of the 2011 census but will have 86 seats in the next Dáil (both the new Offaly constituency and the outgoing Tipperary North constituency breach the Offaly-Tipperary and thus the Leinster-Munster boundary)) or be a 159th seat.  The largest population per TD ratio in constituencies not affected by my suggestion was in Dublin North-West, which would have goon from +3.92% to +4.58% with the addition of a 159th seat overall.  I don't know if having an even number of TDs once the Ceann Comhairle was elected would be a serious drawback though.

The north-south extent of my Donegal-Leitrim would be even greater than the actual new Sligo-Leitrim, which I know some here have complained about.  It would only contain all or part of three counties though.  The average population per TD (as of 2011) in Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim and Donegal would be 29,691, while the population of the incoming Cavan-Monaghan constituency is 30,121 (the average for Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim, Donegal and Sligo under the actual plan is 30,153).  Not the direction you'd want to go in if you're concerned about Cavan being split too deeply, but maybe the population of Cavan-Monaghan being allowed to be smaller could have allowed Belturbet to go with West Cavan in exchange for some geographically smaller but less populous territory that would have made more sense remaining in Cavan-Monaghan.

[Kevinstat]

Given the Green Party's decision to contest all constituencies (despite, in even the most optimistic scenarios, being only competitive in a very small number of seats) - this threshold will an important marker across the country as it will determine just how expensive the election will prove to be for them.

Did any non-incumbent Green Dáil candidates reach the deposit threshold in 2011?  I know three of their six incumbents lost their deposits that year.  Do they have a decent shot of meeting the deposit threshold in more than three constituencies this year?

There's also some nationwide threshold for getting some public funding/reimbursement, isn't there.  That might be why their fielding candidates everywhere, perhaps with an eye toward meeting the national threshold in the next election.  (I've heard people say their recovery will probably take a couple elections, but the implication is that they're not "finished" and will probably have a sustained Dáil presence again at some point in the not-too distant future.)

[Kevinstat]

Either way as the commission created four county agglomerations like the new Sligo-Leitrim(-South Donegal-East Cavan) constituencies in Dublin old constituency boundaries crossing county council boundaries were eliminated.

Assuming that by "Dublin old constituency boundaries" you mean the traditional/ceremonial/whatever you call it County Dublin, there are actually the same number of boundary crossings as before.  The Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown--"South Dublin" breach is eliminated, but there is still a Dublin City-"South Dublin" crossing with Dublin South-West (which could technically be called two crossings, as the equivalent (in that area) old and new constituency boundaries touch the council boundary in Walkinstown).  And there will now be three constituencies which cross the Dublin City-Fingal boundary, with Dublin West joining Dublin North-West and Dublin North-East -> Dublin Bay North.  The Dublin City-Fingal boundary is coincident with a constituency boundary for a bit more of it's course though, as the new Dublin Bay North-Dublin North Fingal (odd name I'll agree) boundary follows the council boundary (apart from some traffic islands/medians) from the northeast corner of Dublin North West to where the council boundary dips to the south to include Howth Head and Sutton in Fingal.

A breach of the Donegal-Leitrim boundary was practically unavoidable (County Donegal with 5 TDs would have been at +7.47% in a 153-seat Dáil, while County Donegal with 6 TDs would have been at -6.35% in a 160-seat Dáil), and a breach of the external boundary of Cavan-Monaghan even more so (within the largest deviation accepted by past commissions (7.89%, from 1980 on probably) only for a 5-seater with 159 and 160 TDs overall, but still +6.78% in a 160-seat Dáil, the "best case scenario").  Counties Donegal and Cavan are both in Ulster, but not sharing a border I know so I think a "Leitrim bridge" made sense as long as County Leitrim wasn't divided (people there have been through enough).  What might have been better is to make Donegal North-East (possibly renamed Donegal North) a four-seater, put the rest of Donegal in a 3-seat (South )Donegal-Leitrim(-West Cavan) (covering all of Leitrim this time, unlike Cormac Breslin's old constituency, which was a functional 2-seater in 1969 and 1973), pair Sligo with (north)East Mayo for 3 seats, with the rest of Mayo being a 4-seater, and pair Roscommon with Galway for 11 seats, like in the actual plan but without any of Mayo thrown in.  That would have resulted in a 29th seat for Connagcht-Ulster (it had 28.8348/158 or 29.0173/159 of the ROI's population as of the 2011 census), which would have either had to come from somewhere else (Munster plus Leinster outside Dublin had 85.3261/158 of the country's population as of the 2011 census but will have 86 seats in the next Dáil (both the new Offaly constituency and the outgoing Tipperary North constituency breach the Offaly-Tipperary and thus the Leinster-Munster boundary)) or be a 159th seat.  The largest population per TD ratio in constituencies not affected by my suggestion was in Dublin North-West, which would have goon gone from +3.92% to +4.58% with the addition of a 159th seat overall.  I don't know if having an even number of TDs once the Ceann Comhairle was elected would be a serious drawback though.

The north-south extent of my Donegal-Leitrim would be even greater than the actual new Sligo-Leitrim, which I know some here have complained about.  It would only contain all or part of three counties though.  The average population per TD (as of 2011) in Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim and Donegal would be 29,691, while the population of the incoming Cavan-Monaghan constituency is 30,121 (the average for Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim, Donegal and Sligo under the actual plan is 30,153).  Not the direction you'd want to go in if you're concerned about Cavan being split too deeply, but maybe the population of Cavan-Monaghan being allowed to be smaller could have allowed Belturbet to go with West Cavan in exchange for some geographically smaller but less populous territory that would have made more sense remaining in Cavan-Monaghan.

Any thoughts on my alternative "might have been" constituency boundaries for Connacht-Ulster?  To keep the Dáil at 158 TDs, County Kildare + Countil Laois + County Kilkenny + County Carlow + County Wicklow + North Tipperary riding + Sounty Tipperary riding (the two ridings still existed as of the time of the last Dáil boundary review, although legislation to merge them might have been passed by that time) + County Limerick + County Clare (with 38.6365/158 of the ROI's population) could have been given 38 seats instead of 39, with County Kildare remaining (from the existing and now outgoing boundaries) coterminous with a 4-seater and a 3-seater, Laois-Offlay remaining a 5-seater but with all of County Offlay in it and with part of County Laois going to Carlow-Kilkenny (with perhaps a dite more of County Carlow going to the Wicklow constituency), Ballyglass in County Clare coming home to the (still 4-seat) Clare constituency and the two Tipperary ridings and County Limerick combining for 12 seats.  This last could have been accomplished with part of South Tipperary going to Limerick County and adjusting the line between Limerick City and Limerick County as needed (and shifting a seat from the city constituency to the county constituency if it made for a better boundary), or by keeping two 3-seat Tipperary based constituencies (Tipperary South could correspond precisely with the then-South Tipperary riding, which would be a recognized boundary even after the two councils merged) and moving some territory in northeastern County Limerick (from the then-existing Limerick and/or Limerick City constituencies) into Tipperary North, with Limerick City becoming a 3 seater and losing territory to Limerick -> Limerick County rather than gaining territory as ended up happening.  The Waterford constituency would still have gained the portion of County Waterford that had been in Tipperary South, and County Kerry would have still been made a 5-seater with none of County Limerick, so counties Kerry and Waterford wouldn't be included in my already huge "conglomerate of change" from the actual plan that resulted.

There would have been no constituencies crossing any provincial lines except the two Connacht-Ulster lines within the ROI.  Munster at 42.9100/158 of the Republic's population would have had 43 TDs (and not having another partial TD or 3 (depending on how you view it) from Offlay), while Leinster outside County Dublin at 42.4161/158 of the ROI's population would have had 42 TDs rather than (most of) 43.  County Dublin with 43.8391/158 of the Republic's population would have still been allotted 44 TDs, while Connact-Ulster at 28.8348/158 of the country's population would have been allotted 29 TDs rather than 28.

[Kevinstat]

Given the Green Party's decision to contest all constituencies (despite, in even the most optimistic scenarios, being only competitive in a very small number of seats) - this threshold will an important marker across the country as it will determine just how expensive the election will prove to be for them.

Did any non-incumbent Green Dáil candidates reach the deposit threshold in 2011?  I know three of their six incumbents lost their deposits that year.  Do they have a decent shot of meeting the deposit threshold in more than three constituencies this year?

Mark Dearey in Louth, who had been one of only three candidates to get elected in the city/county council elections in 2009, and had been appointed a Senator in the interim.

At a guess, the three "South Dublin" constituencies, along with Louth, Carlow-Kilkenny, Dublin Fingal and Dublin Bay North (outside chance in Waterford). The last four are all five-seaters (lowering the deposit level) and have enough of a metropolitan or alternative middle class to give them some sort of a base.

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I think it's 2% of the vote nationally (they were on 1.8% last time, so they should clear it this time with a - very modest - recovery).

I suspect, however, that they'll struggle to make a serious recovery beyond their niche because they acquired a reputation for obsessing with ideological trivia as the house went up in flames around them. I think Labour will struggle to revive after February 26th for much the same sort of reason and because SF and the Alphabet Left will have eaten their working-class base just as the Social Democrats pose a threat to the middle-class "conscience" vote.

Yeah, that all makes sense.  Thanks.

[Kevinstat]

Dublin Bay South, fifth count:

4 seats
Murphy (FG) 6873
Ryan (Grn) 6605
O'Connell (FG) 5773
Humphreys (Lab) 4992
O'Callaghan (FF) 4949
Andrews (SF) 4888
Creighton (Renua) 4820 and out
Count adjourned until 10am.

What are the chances of nobody passing the quota (what is it, btw?  I'm too lazy to go back and check) in the sixth count, which would mean all four winning candidates would be elected in the seventh (some probably without reaching the quota)?

[Kevinstat]

SLIGO-LEITRIM: Adjourned after four counts.  2FF/2FG/1SF looks likely here.

Sligo-Leitrim's a four-seater.

Now that I'm thinking of Sligo-Leitrim, does anyone know where the "I V(ot)E INCAVAN !" (why the voter didn't make it end with "IN CAVAN!" is a mystery to me, but clearly the person was not a typical individual anyway) vote was from?  In Cavan obviously (although you never know, I guess), but say in the part of the district east (well, southeast) of Belturbet, perhaps?  I'd hope folks in genuine West Cavan would have some sympathy with folks in neighboring Leitrim and acknowledge that there weren't really good alternatives that would have kept them in C-M, but a voter who's willing to cast a void ballot to make a point isn't likely to have considered that or be moved by it if he/she had (my guess is it was a guy, but we'll never know, unless that voter took a picture of his ballot in the voting booth (with his phone) or before turning in his/her absentee ballot, if they even have absentee ballots there).

[Kevinstat]

Unsurprisingly enough, Danny Healy-Rae has been elected on the second count in Kerry on his brother's transfers.

I didn't think they had quite two quotas between them, although close enough that exclusions of other candidates and distributions/exhaustions of their transfers would get the brother in.  Were exclusions perhaps done at the same time?

[Kevinstat]

Early morning dispatch from your Longford correspondent:

In a surprise twist, the transfers of Kevin "Boxer" Moran's surplus of 71 votes have turned a 19-vote lead for James "Bonkers" Bannon of FG into a two-vote lead for Willie Penrose of Labour.

Another full recount - requested by FG this time rather than Labour - has been ordered to begin at 10.30 tomorrow morning.

How the heck did Bannon jump ahead of Penrose from 400 votes down (409 to be precise) on an FF exclusion anyway?

[Kevinstat]

Early morning dispatch from your Longford correspondent:

In a surprise twist, the transfers of Kevin "Boxer" Moran's surplus of 71 votes have turned a 19-vote lead for James "Bonkers" Bannon of FG into a two-vote lead for Willie Penrose of Labour.

Another full recount - requested by FG this time rather than Labour - has been ordered to begin at 10.30 tomorrow morning.

How the heck did Bannon jump ahead of Penrose from 400 votes down (409 to be precise) on an FF exclusion anyway?

A possible answer just occurred to me.  Geographic-based voting.  Are Gerrity-Quinn and Bannon both from Longford and Penrose from Westmeath?  Still, a bit surprising to me that Gerrity-Quinn's exclusion helped Bannon so much.

[Kevinstat]

Any guesses as to how Bannon's vote would have transferred if he had been knocked out in Count 12 instead of Gerrity-Quinn?  While at first I thought Gerrity-Quinn's exclusion was not as good for Penrose as Bannon's exclusion would have been (although I still thought Penrose wouldn't lose ground, not considering geography), Bannon seems like an outspoken "Longford loyalist" while I know Gerrity-Quinn was basically "parachuted" (in the sense of FF Party HQ and TD Robert Troy manufacturing her nomination) into the Longford FF position, and Bannon's vote (up through Count 12) might have been more likely to stay in Longford than Gerrity-Quinn's (up to that point).  Of course she would have had to rely on transfers from a Westmeath-based Labour candidate to get her ahead/not push her behind the Westmeath-based Sinn Féin candidate.  Bannon will likely have a better shot than Gerrity-Quinn would have once the other one of those two (already happened) and Penrose (if that happens) is excluded, due to the FG-Labour transfer agreement, although much of Penrose's vote would likely transfer to Burke and only the amount if any that Burke is pushed over the quota would go to Bannon.

If Penrose survives Count 14, there will be no Longford-based candidates left, correct?  If so, Bannon's vote will likely transfer quite strongly to his running-mate Burke, giving the latter a surplus that would seemingly go mostly to Penrose (and likely very little to SF).  But will it be enough?

[Kevinstat]

So, the 9 seats left should break down:
- 1 FG basically guaranteed (L.-W.)
- 1 Ind basically guaranteed (L.-W.)
- 1 FF basically guaranteed (DBN)
- 1 seat that could go either FF, FG, SF or Lab (L.-W.)
- 3 seats to split between Ind, SF, Lab, and AAA-PBP. One of the two independents will probably get in (DBN)
- 1 seat that could go either FF or AAA-PBP (DSC)
- 1 seat that could go either FG or Ind (DSW)

This would give:
FG 50-52
FF 44-46
SF 22-23
Ind 20-23
Lab 6-7
AAA-PBP 5-7

With 155/158 seats declared, the current party standings are:
FG 49
FF 44
SF 23
Ind 13
IA 6
Lab 6
AAA-PBP 5
Ind4Chg 4
SD 3
Greens 2

the 3 seats left should break down:
- 1 FG basically guaranteed (L.-W.))
- 1 seat that could go to either SF, Lab or (with a recount reversal, potentially) FG (L.-W.)
- 1 seat that could go either AAA-PBP or (with a recount reversal) FF (DSC)

This would give:
FG 50-51
FF 44-45
SF 23-24
Ind 17-x (13?)
Lab 6-7
IA 6
AAA-PBP 5-6
Ind4Chg x (4?)
SD 3
Greens 2

[Kevinstat]

So I take it final numbers are finally out now? What are they?

FG 50, FF 44 (-1 as speaker), SF 23, Lab 7, Alphabet Left 6 (SP 3, SWP 3), SD 3, GP 2, Oth 23.

Did Ó Fearghaíl have any competition for the post?  I just learned of his election and that such elections are by secret ballot.  Wikipedia's listing him as the Ceann Comhairle on the members list while in the past they've listed the one (if any) who was CC going into the election in which that Dáil was elected and was thus elected unopposed.

From five years ago with appropriate modifications:
...
Other right:
...
Stephen Donnelly (Wicklow) - former management consultant with McKinsey and Harvard Kennedy School of Government graduate, campaigned on economic issues in generally vague terms. Now with the Social Democrats.

Both of these are highly critical of the terms of the EU/IMF bailout and general banking policy.

Quite a contrast, at first glance anyway.  Although I know the member(s) of the Social Democrats who was/were in Labour went along with a fair amount of austerity measures in the Fine Gael-Labour government before bolting.  And you did say Donnelly had "campaigned on economic issues in generally vague terms" in 2011.

Does he fit in well with his current party?  Ideologically?  Personally (with the other two SD TDs)?

[Kevinstat]

(Republic of) Ireland constituency review 2016-17 (a thread I've started that folks visiting this thread might be interested in)