The cause of the Trump surge.

[Retrumplican]

1 quarter of the Republican Party are racists.

Half, at least.

BTW, funny thing is, I momentarily misread that and thought you had written "rapists."

[Retrumplican]

It's a mix of both. But mostly of the first.

Yep.

[Badger]

Distinctly the second.

This. There's always a swoon of low info voters for candidates who purportedly "tell it like it is". They tend to fade.

How is Trump going to maintain the media attention by invoking increasingly inflamatory statements for the next 6 months without people getting bored and/or turned off? Answer, he won't.

Likewise, I wouldn't hold hope of him doing well in the debates.

The one thing to separate him from being another Bachmann is his fortune. That'll keep him in the game as long as he wants (i.e. until the field has winnowed out to a few real contenders and his showings become humiliating).

[Fuzzy Bear]

Distinctly the second.

This. There's always a swoon of low info voters for candidates who purportedly "tell it like it is". They tend to fade.

How is Trump going to maintain the media attention by invoking increasingly inflamatory statements for the next 6 months without people getting bored and/or turned off? Answer, he won't.

Likewise, I wouldn't hold hope of him doing well in the debates.

The one thing to separate him from being another Bachmann is his fortune. That'll keep him in the game as long as he wants (i.e. until the field has winnowed out to a few real contenders and his showings become humiliating).

"Low information voters."  You mean folks who need elites explaining to them what is good for them, because they are either too lazy to figure it out for themselves or too stupid to know better?

[Badger]

Distinctly the second.

This. There's always a swoon of low info voters for candidates who purportedly "tell it like it is". They tend to fade.

How is Trump going to maintain the media attention by invoking increasingly inflamatory statements for the next 6 months without people getting bored and/or turned off? Answer, he won't.

Likewise, I wouldn't hold hope of him doing well in the debates.

The one thing to separate him from being another Bachmann is his fortune. That'll keep him in the game as long as he wants (i.e. until the field has winnowed out to a few real contenders and his showings become humiliating).

"Low information voters."  You mean folks who need elites explaining to them what is good for them, because they are either too lazy to figure it out for themselves or too stupid to know better?

People who follow public affairs even less than the typical American, and are easily swayed by lowest common denominator sound bites, at least until the race heats up and they start paying attention about a month before election day.

[Hydera]

One thing to note that is that a lot of his support is because he is cannibalizing the support from the crowded field of candidates who are trying to court the conservative base.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Cruz, Huckabee, Carson, Santroum, Jindal. Have had 30-50% of their support flee to trump. He's gaining in the polls because he was the guy people who wanted those candidates to be. a conservative that makes a lot of noise and gets a lot of attention. Who won't backtrack or backdown.

For some reason, Carson, Cruz, Huckabee, etc were playing it safe after initial attention. Also i think some conservatives might of been turned off from the too much overt evangelical pandering by the other conservative candidates.




Strangely enough, Scott Walker is still holding on. If he can cannibalize the rest of them along with scott walker's support he could be really strong. Although time will tell whether or not he was just another flavor of the month candidate.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Distinctly the second.

This. There's always a swoon of low info voters for candidates who purportedly "tell it like it is". They tend to fade.

How is Trump going to maintain the media attention by invoking increasingly inflamatory statements for the next 6 months without people getting bored and/or turned off? Answer, he won't.

Likewise, I wouldn't hold hope of him doing well in the debates.

The one thing to separate him from being another Bachmann is his fortune. That'll keep him in the game as long as he wants (i.e. until the field has winnowed out to a few real contenders and his showings become humiliating).

"Low information voters."  You mean folks who need elites explaining to them what is good for them, because they are either too lazy to figure it out for themselves or too stupid to know better?

People who follow public affairs even less than the typical American, and are easily swayed by lowest common denominator sound bites, at least until the race heats up and they start paying attention about a month before election day.

You mean folks who have figured out that someone other than themselves will profit from "free trade" as they drive by their factory that was shut down and the manufacturing moved to Mexico or China?  You mean the people who have been victimized by illegal aliens committing crimes because they cannot work legally in the US?  You mean people who see unlimited political ads on TV and billionaires accompanying their favorite candidates to key gatherings acting like their NASCAR sponsors and wonder why it is harder for them to afford some of what they have come to consider to by a part of middle class standard of living?

A lot of "high information" many voters have is noise to obliterate the bottom line that the person trying to stay in the middle class in America is being deliberately screwed by elites who, through condescending lecturing as to how John Q. doesn't really understand how economics really works, and please trust them with their trade and immigration policies.  The low information voters know what they need to know, which is (A) the top 1% are getting richer, (B) the bottom 99% are getting further away from the top 1% and (C) this allow the top 1% to be even more predatory in their business and pricing practices.  The elites that, in effect, persecute the middle class view the middle class of America as unable to percieve when they are being screwed.  

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Distinctly the second.

This. There's always a swoon of low info voters for candidates who purportedly "tell it like it is". They tend to fade.

How is Trump going to maintain the media attention by invoking increasingly inflamatory statements for the next 6 months without people getting bored and/or turned off? Answer, he won't.

Likewise, I wouldn't hold hope of him doing well in the debates.

The one thing to separate him from being another Bachmann is his fortune. That'll keep him in the game as long as he wants (i.e. until the field has winnowed out to a few real contenders and his showings become humiliating).

"Low information voters."  You mean folks who need elites explaining to them what is good for them, because they are either too lazy to figure it out for themselves or too stupid to know better?

People who follow public affairs even less than the typical American, and are easily swayed by lowest common denominator sound bites, at least until the race heats up and they start paying attention about a month before election day.

You mean folks who have figured out that someone other than themselves will profit from "free trade" as they drive by their factory that was shut down and the manufacturing moved to Mexico or China?  You mean the people who have been victimized by illegal aliens committing crimes because they cannot work legally in the US?  You mean people who see unlimited political ads on TV and billionaires accompanying their favorite candidates to key gatherings acting like their NASCAR sponsors and wonder why it is harder for them to afford some of what they have come to consider to by a part of middle class standard of living?

A lot of "high information" many voters have is noise to obliterate the bottom line that the person trying to stay in the middle class in America is being deliberately screwed by elites who, through condescending lecturing as to how John Q. doesn't really understand how economics really works, and please trust them with their trade and immigration policies.  The low information voters know what they need to know, which is (A) the top 1% are getting richer, (B) the bottom 99% are getting further away from the top 1% and (C) this allow the top 1% to be even more predatory in their business and pricing practices.  The elites that, in effect, persecute the middle class view the middle class of America as unable to percieve when they are being screwed.  

Of course Sanders or O'Malley are better for the average person, but Trump is the one other candidate who strongly opposes sh**t like TPP. Clinton and Bush seem a little too chummy. In face, Bill and George W. are like best friends.

[CapoteMonster]

Reading Fuzzybear's posts makes me realize why low-income southern whites are staunch Republicans.

[ag]

Reading Fuzzybear's posts makes me realize why low-income southern whites are staunch Republicans.

But that does not explain why non-southern whites aren´t

[heatmaster]

The second option, he's a blowhard,  plain and simple, with him, every sentence includes "me" & "I", which proves the rule about Trump, he's campaigning for attention. He's the latest flavor of the month & folks will grow bored with him. It's the "silly season", every election cycle has one. People can afford to be Fickle and indulge in there latest political fad.  Unfortunately for Trump, he's a victim of his own fantasies.  The presidency is a serious business and Trump's 15 minutes are about up.

[eric82oslo]

Media attention coupled with the fact that the modern Republican party is 90% insanity and 10% Jeb Bush. The fact that a Bush is close to the only tie the GOP has to sanity these days should tell you all about exactly how far off this party has gotten these days.

[dmmidmi]

Distinctly the second.

This. There's always a swoon of low info voters for candidates who purportedly "tell it like it is". They tend to fade.

How is Trump going to maintain the media attention by invoking increasingly inflamatory statements for the next 6 months without people getting bored and/or turned off? Answer, he won't.

Likewise, I wouldn't hold hope of him doing well in the debates.

The one thing to separate him from being another Bachmann is his fortune. That'll keep him in the game as long as he wants (i.e. until the field has winnowed out to a few real contenders and his showings become humiliating).

Donald Trump has been capturing headlines by being an @sshole for as long as I've been alive. To think that he can't sustain this for six months is wishful thinking.

If this were some newcomer, you might be right.

[dudeabides]

Reading Fuzzybear's posts makes me realize why low-income southern whites are staunch Republicans.

I'm a north-easterner who grew up middle class. I'm Republican. What do you say about me?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Reading Fuzzybear's posts makes me realize why low-income southern whites are staunch Republicans.

But that does not explain why non-southern whites aren´t

For the record, I'm a native New Yorker, and while I am a registered Republican, I have only voted Republican for President twice (Bush in 2000, McCain in 2008).  I'm a Kerry 2004 and Obama 2012 voter.

I am neither a Southerner (at least by birth) or a "staunch Republican".  I'm really a RINO, and anti-war.  But I am a social conservative on most issues, and I am concerned about consequences of unchecked illegal immigration into the US.  

In other words, I'm an independent thinker.

I am curious as to what CapoteMonster means by his comment.

[Kingpoleon]

A little from column A, a little from column B. He's pointing at the elephants in the living room, but in crude, tactless and unproductive ways. He's getting media attention because of the spectacle, but that won't be quite as easy for the media to turn off as they'd doubtless like. As long as Trump provides good copy, somebody will be covering him, and his exposure and willingness to address forbidden topics can give him solid support among the radicalized GOP base.

It's really looking to me like Republican insiders spent the last 10 years thinking that catering to hate and ignorance was something they could turn on or off at will, and are now getting some inevitable payback in the form of Trump.

... You do understand Truml has only ever called illegal immigrants names, right? He says "First we'll secure the border. Look, then, then - look, listen to me. You hate me - once we secure the border, then we'll talk." The last part is a direct quote.