The cause of the Trump surge.

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Trump is not really campaigning for the presidency, he is campaigning for attention.  He knows how to get attention in a presidential race or in a political context in general; make inflammatory statements.  The media covers those a lot more readily than they do the boring same-old same-old from the other candidates. Plus, lots of spectators and base voters out there love unscripted candidates.  So, he is ahead now.  Soon you'll see lots of GOP-sponsored attacks on his personal life, his business dealings and all that; the party can't possibly afford the damage he is doing re: the Latino vote and the veteran vote.  On top of that, once he gets into policy debates, his stupidity will shine.  But he is doing exactly what he wants to do, and all he wants to do--getting loads of attention.