June-July electoral type event: Burundi

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Following much criticised Presidential elections in mid-June (that we missed), parliamentary elections in late-June (that we, err, also missed) we have an indirect senate elections. I'm going to write a bit more about it, but (after the unrest and attempted coup earlier this year) it seems Burundi is regressing democratically under Pierre.

[politicus]

Following much criticised Presidential elections in mid-June (that we missed), parliamentary elections in late-June (that we, err, also missed) we have an indirect senate elections. I'm going to write a bit more about it, but (after the unrest and attempted coup earlier this year) it seems Burundi is regressing democratically under Pierre.

Okay, is it worth a separate thread? We have an electoral type event thread you could use.

[politicus]

According to wiki the Presidential election is July 21:

"On 8 June 2015, the electoral commission proposed that the date of the presidential election be moved from 26 June to 15 July, delaying the vote by nearly three weeks.

Nkurunziza began his re-election campaign at a rally on 25 June.

On 11 July 2015, in response to requests from regional leaders, the government announced another delay, pushing the vote back by six days to 21 July."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burundian_presidential_election,_2015

http://allafrica.com/stories/201507151893.html

[politicus]

Actually Tanzania Daily News says it has been delayed to July 30.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201507070799.html

"The heads of state from the East African Community (EAC) countries agreed in Dar es Salaam yesterday to postpone the Burundi elections to July 30, as the region's apex body for civil societies dragged President Pierre Nkurunziza before the court over constitutional abuse"

Nkuruziza is before the Arusha-based East African Court of Justice (EACJ) accused of breaching his country's constitution.

EDIT: It is held the 21th anyway. The mediation efforts failed.

[Famous Mortimer]

Pierre Nkurunziza literally came to power by saying "I will continue to kill people unless you make me president" so it's really no surprise that he sucks.

[politicus]

So it is today - and there is lots of violence already.

Seven opposition candidates are on the ballot. The four who boycott the election still have their names listed + three nobodies are running.

Just to clarify Pierre Nkurunzizia claimed that his first term did not count towards the two period term limit because he was elected by parliament and the Constitutional Court ruled in favour of this.

"Why it matters" (decent summary of consequences)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33476228

[politicus]

More death and protests against it. A result should be available Thursday, so we can see how high they dare to set his vote share. Official turnout is 74%, comparable to the parliamentary election. This is almost certainly fictitious. The government admit turnout has been low in Bujumbura and the SW Bururi province, but apparently it is somehow magically 85-90% in other provinces.

US State Department: The elections lack credibility and by pressing ahead, the government risks its legitimacy. "The vote will further discredit the government".

[RogueBeaver]

Safe on third: Nkurunziza wins 69.41% to his closest rival's 19%. New legislature opens Monday, Nkurunziza will be inaugurated by Aug. 26.

[politicus]

Well, no surprise there - a solid win without being NK ridiculous. The only thing I wondered about was what they would set the official turnout to, and I haven't been able to find that.

EDIT: This election result would actually be credible if the turnout was very low due to opposition boycott and violence, but they willl probably set it much higher.

His CNDD-FDD is sending out conciliatory signal to the opposition in order to appease international donors:

1) formation of a national unity government
2) release of jailed demonstrators
3) reopening of private radio stations that were shut during the coup attempt.

But analysts say this wont last long because the opposition has radicalised and expanded and an increasingly paranoid Nkurunziza  has purged his party of intellectuals and moderates (mostly academics and middle class) in favour of hardline ex-guerillas from the civil war.

French academic Christian Thibon says Burundi has degenerated into a lawless society and that it's leadership may "choose to follow the path of the isolationist, paranoid and authoritarian Horn of Africa state of Eritrea."

Being the Eritrea of Central Africa is, well.., a new low.

[politicus]

Turnout was (or rather was set to be) 73.44%!!! Which makes the result officially ridiculous.

It is close to the official turnout for the legislative election which was 74.32%, so I guess that is the level they decided sounded respectable, but it would be quite high even for a free election in Africa held under non-violent circumstances.

[Famous Mortimer]

Final results:

Pierre Nkurunziza (CNDD–FDD, former Hutu rebel group) 69%
Agathon Rwasa (Independent, former leader of another Hutu rebel group called the National Liberation Forces) 19%
Gerard Nduwayo (National Union for Progress, Tutsi supported former sole legal party) 2%
Jean Minani (Front for Democracy in Burundi, mainstream Hutu party that won first democratic elections) 1%
Jacques Bigirimana (National Liberation Forces, official candidate, Rwasa broke away for some reason) 1%
Domitien Ndayizeye (former president from 2003-2005, former member of Front for Democracy in Burundi, now leading "National Rally for Reform") >1%
Jean De Dieu Mutabazi (another former member of the Front for Democracy in Burundi) >1%
Sylvestre Ntibantunganya (former president from 1994-1996, former member of the Front for Democracy in Berundi, now independent) >1%

[Famous Mortimer]

The only candidates I can confirm for sure didn't boycott were the National Union for Progress candidate (the only Tutsi on the ballot) and the National Liberation Forces candidate.

[Famous Mortimer]

Jacques Bigirimana, who didn't boycott, appeared on the ballot as the FLN candidate.

Agathon Rwasa, who may have boycotted and has called the elections a sham, was listed as an independent.

Most international media has called Bigirimana's faction the break away faction.

So I'm guessing there was a split over whether or not to back the government, with Rwasa taking the actual supporters but Bigirimana keeping the name thanks to being friendly with the government.

[Sir John Johns]

The only candidates I can confirm for sure didn't boycott were the National Union for Progress candidate (the only Tutsi on the ballot) and the National Liberation Forces candidate.

On 17 July, Minani, Ndayizeye, and Ntibantunganya all withdrew their candidacies after the failure of the talks with the president. Rwasa, while having denounced the election as a fraud, didn't actually withdraw his candidacy, arguing it would be a “waste of time”. The other candidates are fake opponents who only ran to give some legitimacy to the election.

Jacques Bigirimana, who didn't boycott, appeared on the ballot as the FLN candidate.

Agathon Rwasa, who may have boycotted and has called the elections a sham, was listed as an independent.

Most international media has called Bigirimana's faction the break away faction.

So I'm guessing there was a split over whether or not to back the government, with Rwasa taking the actual supporters but Bigirimana keeping the name thanks to being friendly with the government.

In order to weaken the opposition, Nkurunziza and his interior minister have used the so-called “Nyakurisation” strategy: internal divisions within opposition parties are created and supported by the regime (notably by the infiltration of supporters of the president in the parties) ultimately leading to a split between an anti- and a pro-government factions with the latter being recognized as the sole legal owners of the party appellation.

The “Nyakurisation” term has been coined after the 2008 government-sponsored split within the Front for Democracy in Burundi (Frodebu), historically the main Hutu party. The pro-government faction led by Jean Minani then launched the “genuine Frodebu” (Frodebu-Nyakuri) and joined the government of Nkurunziza. Minani however broke later with the Burundian president over the latter's decision to run for a third presidential term.

Meanwhile, the anti-government faction, called the Sahwanya-Frodebu, has remained in opposition to Nkurunziza and decided not to field a candidate in this year's election. As a consequence, Ntinbantunganya, one of the historical leaders of the party, was expelled in early 2015 for still running for president as an independent candidate. Few months before that, Ndayizeye was also expelled from the Sahwanya-Frodebu after his unsuccessful attempt to reunite the two factions of the Frodebu which by now both stand in opposition to Nkurunziza.

Nyakurisation was also used to deprive Rwasa of the leadership of his National Liberation Forces (FNL), his guerrilla-turned-political party. After months of internal struggles in the FNL, Rwasa was expelled from the party in August 2013 and replaced as leader by Jacques Bigirimana, a partisan of an alliance with Nkurunziza, who ran this year as a token candidate. Earlier this year, Rwasa was also prohibited by the Interior Ministry to use the FNL symbols in his electoral campaign.

The latest political party broken by the Nyakurisation is the National Union for Progress (Uprona), the former Tutsi supremacist party which ruled the country from the independence to the 1990s. The Uprona had been part of the government until February 2014 when it decided to enter into opposition to protest against Nkurunziza's decision to run for a third term. Shortly thereafter, the legitimate leader of the party, Charles Nditije, seen his leadership being disputed by a concurrent, more favorable to the president.

After a legal battle, the pro-Nkurunziza concurrent of Nditije was recognized as the legitimate leader of the Uprona while the Nditije's faction (the largest one) lost the right to call itself the Uprona. The “legal” Uprona fielded a nobody as token candidate in this year's election while, in a bizarre twist of events, Nditije ended up supporting the candidacy of Rwasa, despite the latter's past as a Hutu extremist guerrilla leader. Ironically, in the mid-2000s, Nkurunziza's own Hutu guerrilla actively helped the Tutsi-dominated army in the military campaign the latter waged to eradicate Rwasa's FNL.

Beside personal rivalries, there is also a religious cleavage between Rwasa and Nkurunziza. The former, generally described as a religious fanatic nutcase, is a practicing Catholic who maintains close links with the Catholic Church (which has opposed Nkurunziza's third term). Meanwhile, Nkurunziza, also a religious fanatic nutcase, is an evangelical born-again.

[Famous Mortimer]

So to sum it up:

Agathon Rwasa (anti-government FNL, supported by anti-government Uprona)
Gerard Nduwayo (pro-government Uprona)
Jean Minani (formerly pro-government Frodebu)
Jacques Bigirimana (pro-government FNL)
Domitien Ndayizeye (Frodebu unity candidate)
Sylvestre Ntibantunganya (anti-government Frodebu)

[Sir John Johns]

Domitien Ndayizeye (Frodebu unity candidate)

Well, I guess this is what Ndayizeye intended to be, but he ultimately fall out with the two factions of the Frodebu, he ended up running as the candidate an alliance between three insignificant opposition parties, the National Rally for Change (Ranac). Ironically, when it was created in January 2015, the Ranac was the main opposition coalition, comprising Minani's Frodebu, Nditije's Uprona, and Rwasa's FNL faction. It however quickly fell apart with Minani being expelled from it and Rwasa and Nditije leaving to start their own concurrent opposition alliance.

Anyway, the situation is rapidly developing in Burundi with a major political reconfiguration ongoing.

After having denounced the legislative and presidential elections as a sham and said he would boycotted the new legislature, Rwasa ultimately took the parliamentary seat he was elected to in last June. Furthermore, he was elected first deputy speaker of the new parliament with the votes of the ruling CNDD-FDD. Rwasa claimed he will “play the game” in order to help resolve the political and is toying with the idea of going into a government of national unity on the condition that new elections will be held.

So now, Rwasa is seen as a traitor by other opposition leaders who no longer consider him as a member of the opposition to Nkurunziza. The leader of the Uprona, Nditije (a Tutsi), has expressed his concern about a possible alliance between the two former Hutu guerrillas of the CNDD-FDD and the FNL.

To the surprise of everyone, what is remaining of relevant opposition parties (including the exiled ones) managed to reach an agreement in Addis Ababa on the constitution of a united front opposition against Nkurunziza, the National Council for Compliance with the Arusha Agreement and the Restoration of State in Law in Burundi (CNARED). The new organization is notably comprising various CNDD-FDD splinter groups (including leaders of the May 2015 coup), the two rival Frodebu and the Ntidije-led Uprona faction. The CNARED is also supported by former presidents (and presidential candidates) Ntibantunganya and Ndayizeye, and by Pie Ntavyohanyuma and Gervais Rufyiki; these two latter are dissidents from the CNDD-FDD and were – until few weeks ago – respectively speaker of the National Assembly and second vice-president of Burundi. Léonard Nyangoma, the historical founder of the CNDD-FDD in the 1990s and a longtime opponent to Nkurunziza, was chosen as president of the CNARED. Now it remains to see how long this umpteenth opposition alliance will last.

There are now serious concerns that the country will furthermore plunge into chaos as the right-hand man of Nkurunziza, General Adolphe Nshimirimana, was murdered yesterday in a rocket attack in Bujumbura. A hardliner, Nshimirimana was a former chief of staff of the CNDD-FDD guerrilla and the powerful head of the intelligence service for a decade. At the time of his death, he was in charge of the Internal Security. Inhabitants of the opposition-leaning neighborhoods of Bujumbura are now fearing bloody retaliation by the CNDD-FDD.