What could take down Trump?

[Likely Voter]

It has often been said that Trump is just another 'flavor of the month' like those seen in the 2012 cycle. But those 'flavors' fell out of favor for specific reasons.

- Bachmann was eclipsed by the entry of the (seemingly) much more credible conservative Perry
- Perry was sunk by calling opponents to DREAM act 'heartless' and bad debate performances (notably 'oops')
- Cain was weakened by persistent questions on 999 plan, his lack of knowledge and (mostly) questions about sexual harassment.
- After winning SC Gingrich was taken down by the GOP establishment joined by conservatives (even Drudge) who threw the kitchen sink at him with accusations about lobbying, criticizing Regan and more.

So far Trump matches the rise of some of these 'flavors' but what would it take for him to follow suit and crash? Or does he really have a lock on 15-30% of the GOP voters who hate politicians and are attracted to his natavist message?

[Retrumplican]

The difference between the flavors of the month in 2012 and Trump now is that for the flavors of the month, there was a discovery process going on. They rose up in the polls, and then people learned about them, and decided that they didn't like them.

The only one of the flavors of the month that doesn't completely fit that pattern is Gingrich.

The difference is that with Trump, everyone already knows who he is. They know what they are getting. If you support Trump, you know full well what you are doing and why you are doing it. So his support is much less likely to slide. Also, at least as long as there are so many candidates, it is less likely that any one other candidate will be able to really pull ahead of the pack, and so the field is less likely t consolidate. That means that people are less likely to stop supporting Trump just because they don't think he can win and that they would waste their vote on him. So at the very minimum until Iowa/NH/SC/NV, I think he has a lock on his base of, at minimum, 15% support, and potentially much higher.

So the difference is Trump already has near 100% name recognition, and is not a new face on the block.

[TomC]

Actual voters

[ag]

Donald Trump, of course.

[RI]

Gingrich only got taken down because he failed to win Florida. That failure resulted in Santorum's resurgence to sweep MN, MO, and CO.

[Bull Moose Base]

It has often been said that Trump is just another 'flavor of the month' like those seen in the 2012 cycle. But those 'flavors' fell out of favor for specific reasons.

- Bachmann was eclipsed by the entry of the (seemingly) much more credible conservative Perry
- Perry was sunk by calling opponents to DREAM act 'heartless' and bad debate performances (notably 'oops')
- Cain was weakened by persistent questions on 999 plan, his lack of knowledge and (mostly) questions about sexual harassment.
- After winning SC Gingrich was taken down by the GOP establishment joined by conservatives (even Drudge) who threw the kitchen sink at him with accusations about lobbying, criticizing Regan and more.

--Perry collapsed weeks before "oops". It was primarily "heartless" as you say.
--Cain's implosion was because of women (actually, I think the accusations of sexual harassment didn't hurt him much. It was the story of a consensual affair where his denial wasn't credible.) No one cared that he didn't know anything.
--Gingrich collapsed in December due to opposition ads, rose up again to win SC, then was attacked again in Florida, primarily for ethics violations as Speaker I think. But if Trump decides to pony up, no one can outspend him.


 

[Green Line]

The most likely thing to take down Trump is someone even more crazy and outrageous coming along and stealing the hearts of his fanatics. Although Im not sure who that would be

[andrew_c]

His own gaffes.

[SteveRogers]

His own gaffes.

Yep. Trump is a real life troll, so he can be defeated the same way many trolls on atlas often are: keep baiting him until he finally says something so awful that he has to be banned.

[tmthforu94]

Some like the idea of a Trump presidency, but I think they'll take a different tune once we get closer to voting and they start actually imagining what his presidency would look like.

[Brewer]

Actual voters

This is the correct answer.

[Famous Mortimer]

It has often been said that Trump is just another 'flavor of the month' like those seen in the 2012 cycle. But those 'flavors' fell out of favor for specific reasons.

- Bachmann was eclipsed by the entry of the (seemingly) much more credible conservative Perry
- Perry was sunk by calling opponents to DREAM act 'heartless' and bad debate performances (notably 'oops')
- Cain was weakened by persistent questions on 999 plan, his lack of knowledge and (mostly) questions about sexual harassment.
- After winning SC Gingrich was taken down by the GOP establishment joined by conservatives (even Drudge) who threw the kitchen sink at him with accusations about lobbying, criticizing Regan and more.

So far Trump matches the rise of some of these 'flavors' but what would it take for him to follow suit and crash? Or does he really have a lock on 15-30% of the GOP voters who hate politicians and are attracted to his natavist message?

I agree about Bachmann.

Perry lost because the media (deservedly) turned against him. It wasn't any one gaffe. It was a relentless barrage of "Perry is stupid" coverage. Which is kind of weird because similar coverage didn't manage to hurt any other candidate.

Cain was suck by the affairs. Attacks on his intelligence didn't matter.

Gingrich wasn't really brought down by anything, he was never really up to begin with. He never got to the point where he was running against Romney. He was always running against Santorum for the right to challenge Romney.