Why did Romney Lose Florida?

[Free Bird]

It was the general consensus that he would probably win it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It all comes back to his polling data being wrong ala Dewey 1948. When Dewey thought he was ahead and someone begged him to change strategies he said, "when you are a head, don't talk" or something to that effect. Romney thought he had in the bag and didn't do enough to mitigate the effects of Ryan, Self-deportation and other self-imposed problems.

He also let Obama dominate the airwaves over the summer and wittle down the rather good numbers Romney had around the time of the primary on several key issues surrounding his candidacy like Bain Capital and so forth.

[Green Line]

In addition to what Yankee said, he did much worse with Florida Hispanics than any Republican ever did before.  He performed even worse than John McCain did in the Cuban districts.  They weren't expecting that

[Badger]

It was quite close throughout with Romney behind. Arguably Obama's response to Sandy was enough to just barely put him over.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

won Puerto Ricans 83–17.

Wow. I wonder how much nominating Sotomayor helped.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

It was the general consensus that he would probably win it.

538 actually had Obama as a very, very slight favorite in Florida in the final (2?) days.  

[ElectionsGuy]

Hispanics, and more precisely Cubans, probably put Obama over the top as they swung heavily Democratic. If they were at 2008 levels Romney probably would've won the state.

[Bojack Horseman]

Honestly, I have a feeling that it was mostly the minority vote factor combined with turnout. Florida was the only state I had wrong...

[WVdemocrat]

Honestly, I have a feeling that it was mostly the minority vote factor combined with turnout. Florida was the only state I had wrong...

LOL, me too. I predicted an Obama victory 303-235.

[bedstuy]

Polling right before election day had Florida as a dead heat.  538, in fact, gave Obama about a 50.3% chance of victory.  So, there was consensus that Romney would win, that's a myth.

Why Obama won?  Miami-Dade county swinging Democrat.  Obama turned out blacks like he did in 2008 and won the Hispanic vote by a larger margin. 

[Podgy the Bear]

On Election Night, Obama took the early lead in Florida and never lost it.  It was tight all the way and it took several days before it was finally called. 

It will likely be that way next year--especially if Jeb! is the nominee.  The ethnic population is growing rapidly in the state-favoring the Democrats.  But the influx of retirees moving into places like The Villages would probably be a strong counter

[Skye]

He also ran an ad linking Obama To Latin American dictators which, uh, didn't help at all.

The ad where Hugo Chávez said he would vote for Obama if he were an American? It should have helped.

It was devastating for Romney that 7.6% swing for Obama in Miami-Dade.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Florida's Cubans have shifted to the Democrats significantly, but Florida has also had a migration of Puerto Ricans into the state which have shifted the state, Presidentially, toward the Democrats.

While Florida's Southern White voters were heavily supportive of Romney, and Florida's wealthy retirees were very pro-Romney, there are a LOT of folks in Florida struggling to remain in the middle class who have older family members they help care for and they often find themselves with a very thin safety net.  (Florida does as little as possible in Social Services; it's goal is to be America's largest tax haven.)  Housing is expensive in Florida, and its costs are deliberately inflated by the investor class that sinks its money in Florida Real Estate; even during the bust years, housing was expensive in much of Florida, relative to wages.  I've got to believe that there were a number of folks affected by this who were ordinarily GOP voters that were legitimately scared about the talk of the GOP about essentially ending the Safety Net, and Romney's 47% comments were not reassuring to these voters. 

[hopper]

won Puerto Ricans 83–17.

Wow. I wonder how much nominating Sotomayor helped.

I don't think Latino's(or Puerto Ricans) really look at stuff like that.

[Podgy the Bear]

There are a LOT of folks in Florida struggling to remain in the middle class who have older family members they help care for and they often find themselves with a very thin safety net.  (Florida does as little as possible in Social Services; it's goal is to be America's largest tax haven.)  Housing is expensive in Florida, and its costs are deliberately inflated by the investor class that sinks its money in Florida Real Estate; even during the bust years, housing was expensive in much of Florida, relative to wages.  

This is a good point.  With business presences in Orlando and Miami/Ft. Lauderdale as well as my hometown base of Atlanta, I am amazed to see the disparities in wages and social services.  Coming from the outside, housing is relatively affordable in Florida--but not if you have to work for it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Its possible that Florida therefore would be affected by the same thing that hurt him in Ohio. That of falling short amongst lower income voters across the board.

[hopper]

Florida's Cubans have shifted to the Democrats significantly, but Florida has also had a migration of Puerto Ricans into the state which have shifted the state, Presidentially, toward the Democrats.

While Florida's Southern White voters were heavily supportive of Romney, and Florida's wealthy retirees were very pro-Romney, there are a LOT of folks in Florida struggling to remain in the middle class who have older family members they help care for and they often find themselves with a very thin safety net.  (Florida does as little as possible in Social Services; it's goal is to be America's largest tax haven.)  Housing is expensive in Florida, and its costs are deliberately inflated by the investor class that sinks its money in Florida Real Estate; even during the bust years, housing was expensive in much of Florida, relative to wages.  I've got to believe that there were a number of folks affected by this who were ordinarily GOP voters that were legitimately scared about the talk of the GOP about essentially ending the Safety Net, and Romney's 47% comments were not reassuring to these voters. 

What Safety Net was the GOP going to end? The GOP hasn't even ended duplicate programs that are a waste of tax payer money and now they are gonna end Safety Nets?

[tpfkaw]

won Puerto Ricans 83–17.

Wow. I wonder how much nominating Sotomayor helped.

Puerto Ricans have always been 80%+ D.

[Prince of Salem]

I always thought Florida was for anyone to win in 2012, so I was not part of the general consensus

[DS0816]

Orange (Orlando), Miami-Dade (Miami), and John McCain/Mitt Romney underperformance trend in Duval (Jacksonville) counties. Add to this bellwether counties—state wise—with Pinellas (Clearwater) and Hillsborough (Tampa)…and you get a stronger sense. Plus, Florida has been performing within five percentage points from the popular-vote margins since 1996. (It's nearest companion state, Ohio, has done that since 1964.)

[pbrower2a]

He also ran an ad linking Obama To Latin American dictators which, uh, didn't help at all.

The ad where Hugo Chávez said he would vote for Obama if he were an American? It should have helped.

It was devastating for Romney that 7.6% swing for Obama in Miami-Dade.

The dirty ad failed. It was too blatant. 

[Kingpoleon]

Obama did far better among Cubans than he did in 2008 (IIRC, Romney tied Obama among Cubans in 2012) and won Puerto Ricans 83–17. Romney thought he could win the state by maxing out the white vote and focused too little and too late on the Hispanic vote. He also ran an ad linking Obama To Latin American dictators which, uh, didn't help at all.

Which is why the GOP needs Rubio on the ticket as well as someone who connects well - say, Kasich. No, Cubans aren't going to vote for Rubio for being Hispanic. However, if Kasich connects to their hearts, Rubio can use his charisma to make a few realize, "Hey, he understands me."

Also, white working class voters - "blue collar", if you will, swung slightly against Romney.

[Adam Griffin]

Had Miami-Dade County alone not swung at all to Obama in 2012, this would have been the statewide result:

Obama - 49.50% - 4,203,000 votes
Romney - 49.42% - 4,196,000 votes

Just that one simple alteration to the 2012 results would have Obama winning FL by only 7,000 votes (instead of 74,000). So in short, Romney objectively lost because of Cubans more than anything else. Let's keep going though...

Throwing in Broward County and negating its (very tiny 0.2 point) swing changes virtually nothing on a large scale, but because the margin is so close and it's such a large county with a Cuban presence, it's worth including:

Obama - 49.49% - 4,201,500 votes
Romney - 49.44% - 4,197,500 votes

Finally, negating the 2012 swing in Osceola County - which isn't very large in population at all compared to the other two - makes it a 2000-style result with Romney winning:

Romney - 49.46% - 4,200,500 votes
Obama - 49.46% - 4,199,500 votes

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

a) Turnout models in polls were largely flawed, in Romney's favour
b) Obama out-performed 08 in Miami-Dade (Cubans)
c) His increased support from Puerto Ricans helped around I40
d) The Obama groundgame banked a LOT of early votes

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

President Obama did well turning out our African American and Hispanic communities for him. While whites did turn to Romney more (my county was a Dem safe county since 1992 but voted for Romney this go around due to white overwhelmingly here voting for him) Cubans have been shifting more and more Democratic as younger Cuban Americans begin to join in the Political process.

Also, women made up 55% of our electorate in 2012 and they split 53-46 in favor of Obama.

Hispanics made up 17% of our electorate in 2012 up from 14% in 2008 and they went for Obama 60% to Romney's 39%

African Americans made up 13% and they went to Obama 95% to Romney's 4%

Also we have a large Jewish population in South Florida that overwhelmingly went for Obama.