2016 and Onward: A New American Century

[Coolface Sock #42069]

2014's election has come and, as expected, has delivered the Republican Party, once believed to be on the verge of irrelevance, a landslide victory and control of both houses of Congress by wide margins.

Republicans ousted incumbents in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, North Carolina, and Louisiana while simultaneously taking open Democratic seats in Iowa, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia while narrowly missing Mark Warner's seat in Virginia, a seat nobody thought would be seriously contested. They also expanded their edge in statehouses, taking governors' mansions in the blue states of Illinois, Massachusetts, and Maryland and reelecting Paul LePage in Maine while taking over in red Arkansas.

Looking ahead to 2016, Republicans boasted a strong, broad field for President while Democrats had only Hillary Clinton, an impressive candidate with a strong resume but little in the way of new ideas. But Democrats had demographics on their side. With minority population growth having outpaced that of the white population, Republicans were on the defensive, even in an election that would follow eight years of a Democratic president.

Republicans had young faces in the crowd, hoping to draw a generational contrast with the 69-year-old Clinton, but these young faces had to contend with fire-breathing billionaire Donald Trump, who sucked up media attention like oxygen and deprived the rest of the field of vital name recognition.

In early 2016, the media characterized the young race as a pure tossup.

[Higgs]

Continue

[Coolface Sock #42069]

JULY 21, 2015

"Welcome to Special Report. I'm Bret Baier. Earlier today, Ohio Gov. John Kasich announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination for president, bringing the total number of major candidates seeking that nomination to sixteen."

[screen cuts to pictures of GOP presidential candidates in alphabetical order]

"While each candidate has struggled to attract media attention and build name recognition, the problem has been compounded by the presence of real estate magnate Donald Trump, who has risen to the top of national GOP polls but is not seen as a viable candidate for the long haul. Trump's statements on Sen. John McCain's military service in Vietnam, in which he stated that McCain was 'not a war hero', has angered many within the GOP base and inspired much criticism from the party's other candidates."

[clips of criticism from Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, and Rick Perry play in order]

"Trump currently leads in national polls but is well behind in each of the first three primary states: Iowa, where Scott Walker holds a commanding lead, New Hampshire, where Jeb Bush holds a considerable lead, and South Carolina, where Bush also leads. It is unclear whether he can climb into the lead here or what other states he can win since there has been very little polling outside these three states."

[screen shows current RCP averages in IA, NH, SC, and nationwide]

"There is speculation that Trump could run on a third-party ticket if he loses the race for the GOP nomination, a possibility he has not ruled out.".

[Coolface Sock #42069]

SEPTEMBER 10, 2015: The special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Aaron Schock (R-IL) has been won by state Sen. Darin LaHood, 62-35. LaHood will take the oath of office tomorrow. Schock has been indicted on charges of misuse of campaing funds and fradulent billing to the House of Representatives. He is currently fighting extradition after he fled to Mexico this summer.

NOVEMBER 3, 2015

CHRIS MATTHEWS: It is now 7:00 here on the East Coast, and with polls closing, we can now project that businessman Matt Bevin has won the Kentucky gubernatorial race. Bevin, who has spent the past few months linking his opponent, Attorney General Jack Conway to national Democrats including President Obama, has seen his efforts pay off.

MATTHEWS: Exit polls indicate a surprisingly large margin for Bevin, with normally blue counties in Appalachia coming in for Bevin and giving him a statewide margin around 15 points.

MADDOW: It is now clear that in many states in the South and Mountain West, running against national Democratic figures, in particular President Obama but also Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid as well as liberal pundits, creates large margins of victory for Republican candidates. Chris, do you believe the Democratic brand is dead in the American South?

[discussion continues]

Matt Bevin (R)  57% √
Jack Conway (D)  41%

[Coolface Sock #42069]

8:00 PM

MATTHEWS: It is now 8:00 PM here in New York, and with polls closing, we can project that Republican Phil Bryant will win another term as governor of Mississippi. Bryant easily dispatched his Democratic opposition, attorney Vicki Slater.

Phil Bryant (inc.) 63% √
Vicki Slater 36%

MATTHEWS: We can also project that Senator David Vitter has defeated New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu in the race to succeed Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who was term-limited. With Louisiana whites voting 90% Republican, it's impossible for a Democrat to win there. Vitter has won every parish in the state except Orleans, where Landrieu has served as mayor of the largest city, New Orleans.

David Vitter 60% √
Mitch Landrieu 37%

MATTHEWS: With this GOP sweep of 2015, attention now turns to 2016.

[discussion continues]

[Coolface Sock #42069]

US Governor Map after 2015 elections

[Coolface Sock #42069]

ABOUT THE CANDIDATES

Democratic Nomination

Hillary Clinton, former US Senator (D-NY), Secretary of State, and First Lady
Bernard Sanders, US Senator (I-VT) and avowed socialist
Jim Webb, former US Senator (D-VA)
Joseph R. Biden, Jr., Vice President of the United States
Lincoln Chafee, former Governor of Rhode Island (Independent) and former US Senator (R-RI)

Republican Nomination

Marco Rubio, US Senator (R-FL)
Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin
Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida
Rand Paul, US Senator (R-KY)
Ted Cruz, US Senator (R-TX)
Donald Trump, real-estate magnate
John Kasich, Governor of Ohio
Rick Perry, former Governor of Texas
Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey
Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas
Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana
Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO
Lindsey Graham, US Senator (R-SC)
George Pataki, former Governor of New York
Rick Santorum, former US Senator (R-PA)
Ben Carson, former director of pediatric neurosurgery, Johns Hopkins Hospital

(not in any particular order except the order in which they came to mind)

At the end of July 2015, Hillary Clinton was the prohibitive favorite for the Democratic nomination while Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Scott Walker were something of a top tier for Republicans with Donald Trump surging toward the top thanks to increased media attention.

After his announcement, Walker continued his aggressive courting of potential caucus-goers all over Iowa, where he was building a commanding lead, as well as New Hampshire, where he had briefly held a lead but had fallen behind Bush recently. Bush and Rubio spent time and money on the Super Tuesday states (and, in Bush's case, New Hampshire), with both putting a particular emphasis on their shared home state of Florida, with its 99 delegates all going to the winner. Each understood that losing Florida meant his campaign would be over.

Several candidates hung their hopes on winning either Iowa or New Hampshire and placed all their resources in one of these two states. For Iowa, these candidates were Huckabee, Santorum, Jindal, and Carson; for New Hampshire, these candidates were Christie, Trump, Kasich, and Pataki. For each of these, a loss in these respective states meant the end of his campaign.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

You're using the wrong colors.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

You're using the wrong colors.

I noticed other people used red R/blue D for TV broadcasts and the reverse for everything else. I prefer to stick with one set of colors to make things easier.

[Maxwell]

A more visually pleasing version of yellow is gold

[Coolface Sock #42069]

A more visually pleasing version of yellow is gold

Ah, yes, that would be more legible, wouldn't it? I'll change that. Thanks.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The Iowa Caucuses  - February 1, 2016 - Preview

Late endorsements have given small lifts to a few candidates, but the big winner in the Hawkeye State endorsement battle is Scott Walker, who has gained the endorsements of both of Iowa's United States Senators, Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley. Ernst, who was just elected to the Senate in 2014, announced the endorsement at an event in Newton, Iowa, in mid-January, while Grassley, whose endorsement was widely expected to carry the state with it, endorsed Walker at a rally in Cedar Rapids a week before the caucuses. Gov. Terry Branstad has long supported Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, arguing that the young senator possesses the mix of articulate speaking, pragmatism, and average-Joe appeal that the GOP needs to return to the White House.

Rand Paul has campaigned hard in the state's urban areas, in particular making a big push in Iowa City and Ames, two significantly-sized college towns.

Below is a list of each candidate's important endorsements, with Iowans in bold:

Scott Walker

Sen. Charles Grassley
Sen. Joni Ernst
Rep. Rod Blum (IA-1)
Rep. David Young (IA-3)
Former Rep. Tom Latham (IA-3)
Gov. Bruce Rauner (IL)
Sen. Ron Johnson (WI)
Sen. Mark Kirk (IL)
Sen. Dan Coats (IN)
Rep. Sean Duffy (WI-7)
Rep. Reid Ribble (WI-8)
Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (WI-5)
Rep. Darin LaHood (IL-18)
Rep. Mike Bost (IL-10)

Ted Cruz

Rep. Steve King (IA-4)
Sioux City Mayor Bob Scott
Sen. Mike Lee (UT)
Sen. John Cornyn (TX)
Rep. Louie Gohmert (TX-1)

Marco Rubio

Gov. Terry Branstad (IA)
Gov. Rick Scott (FL)
Gov. Susana Martinez (NM)
Sen. Kelly Ayotte (NH)
Sen. Patrick Toomey (PA)
Sen. Tim Scott (SC)
Sen. Dean Heller (NV)
Rep. Justin Amash (MI-3)

Jeb Bush

11 congressmen from Florida
Gov. Brian Sandoval (NV)
Gov. Rick Snyder (MI)
Sen. Susan Collins (ME)
Sen. David Perdue (GA)
Rep. Adam Kinzinger (IL-16)
Rep. Frank Guinta (NH-1)

Chris Christie

Former Gov. Tom Corbett (PA)
Gov. Larry Hogan (MD)
Gov. Paul LePage (ME)

Rand Paul

Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie
Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett
WWE World Heavyweight Champion Seth Rollins
Former University of Iowa President Sally Mason
Sen. Mitch McConnell (KY)
Gov. Doug Ducey (AZ)

Lindsey Graham

Sen. John McCain (AZ)
Gov. Nikki Haley (SC)

Donald Trump

Rep. Daniel M. Donovan, Jr. (NY-11)
NBA Hall-of-Famer Dennis Rodman

All other endorsers were not significant enough to mention or still at large at this point in the race.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

FEBRUARY 1, 2016

KELLY: Welcome to special coverage of the Iowa Caucuses, the nation's first primary. With polls closing, we can now make a projection: Hillary Clinton will win the Iowa Caucuses on the Democratic side, with an estimated 59% of the vote.

Hillary Clinton 59%
Bernie Sanders 30%
Joe Biden 5%
Jim Webb 3%
Lincoln Chafee 2%

Note: I'm going to get a better Iowa map and re-do this because it looks bad. GOP results coming soon.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

KELLY: We are also able to bring you the unexpected: a quick call of the GOP caucuses, where Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has earned a clear victory, clearing the 50% mark by sweeping nearly all of rural Iowa. Donald Trump has managed to win only a few counties, while Ted Cruz took the northwest, and Marco Rubio took one county, Lee County, home to Keokuk in the southeast portion of the state, a disappointing finish in the state where he scored the governor's early endorsement. Rand Paul took the state's urban counties, giving him a strong second-place finish.

KELLY: Jeb Bush, who declined to campaign here in favor of beefing up operations in New Hampshire, will pay for that choice, registering support in the single digits, as will Chris Christie, who, along with a bevvy of minor candidates, has registered support of less than a percentage point.

✓ Scott Walker 51%
Rand Paul 22%
Donald Trump 10%
Ted Cruz 8%
Ben Carson 3%
Jeb Bush 2%
Marco Rubio 2%

KELLY: The governor of Wisconsin is set to deliver his remarks shortly at a victory party in Ankeny. Here's the reaction from his supporters when we called the race just a few minutes ago.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Scott Walker Victory Speech in Ankeny, Iowa

GOV. SCOTT WALKER: Today, by an overwhelming margin and with a voice loud and clear, Iowa has voted for change.

[loud applause]

WALKER: Ladies and gentlemen of the great state of Iowa, we are one step closer to achieving that change. With the help of voters across this nation, we will storm Washington and remove the yoke of big government from the shoulders of the American people!

Coverage shifts back to Megyn Kelly.

KELLY: Well, it's not exactly Joni Ernst's "Make 'Em Squeal" victory speech, but there you have it, sounds of excitement at the overwhelming victory by Scott Walker in the Hawkeye State.

KELLY: Here's Senator Rand Paul speaking to supporters in Iowa City, a place where he's spent a ton of time and money to win over young voters.

PAUL: First of all, I'd like to congratulate Governor Scott Walker on an impressive win.

[token applause]

PAUL: Ladies and gentlemen of the great state of Iowa, we have gone into a state where we were distant underdogs and pulled together a strong second-place finish of which I think we should all be proud. As the contest now moves to New Hampshire, I'm confident of our chances there.

PAUL: Ladies and gentlemen, I am proud to continue to fight for you under the banner of liberty against the statist Washington machine!

[applause]

KELLY: Senator Paul speaking to his supporters about his chances in New Hampshire, where it came as a surprise to many of us to see Paul's colleague, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, campaigning for Paul in the state in earnest the past six weeks. It seems McConnell wasn't kidding when he said he was "all in" for a Paul presidency.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

IOWA CAUCUSES - AFTERMATH

After the Iowa caucuses, conservative kingmakers, candidates, and voters began to rally behind Scott Walker following his resounding victory, while establishment candidates and moderates began preparing for New Hampshire. The lone exception to the rule were Marco Rubio and Ben Carson, who each decided to take a shot at a win in South Carolina.

Senator Ted Cruz drops out of GOP race for the presidency, endorses Scott Walker

CRUZ: My fellow Americans, I'd like to thank you for your supoprt. The past year has been full of highs and lows. My mission upon entering the presidential race was to ensure that the Republican Party would nominate a strong conservative candidate who would shrink the size and scope of government, secure our borders, and strengthen our military to meet head on the challenges we will face. In order to avoid nominating another "Democrat-lite" candidate, conservatives must unite behind a singular candidate who embodies and holds true to these principles. My friends, it is now clear that we indeed have such a candidate, and that man's name is Scott Walker, and I'd like to formally endorse him and request that you give him your support as well. He is, as William F. Buckley would put it, the most conservative viable candidate, and he will make us proud. Thank you.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, and Rick Perry have all dropped out of the race as well and endorsed Iowa caucus winner and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, leaving only Walker, Sen. Marco Rubio (FL), and retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson (MI) to compete for the conservative vote. The GOP's moderate and establishment groups put any dropout plans on hold, hopeful for a strong finish in New Hampshire, a more moderate and independent state, where two politicians' endorsements would carry the most weight: Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Rep. Frank Guinta.

The latter's endorsement had already been bestowed upon Jeb Bush, but the popular first-term senator had not made an endosement, possibly out of fear of stirring the pot in her tough re-election bid. The race itself was deemed a three-way tossup, with Scott Walker mismatched with the electorate but now having consolidated most of conservatives' support and now statistically tied with Jeb Bush and Sen. Rand Paul, the second-place finisher in Iowa. A loss in new Hampshire would likely mean the end for Bush or Paul, while Walker could afford a loss after his big win in Iowa.

Meanwhile, Sen. Marco Rubio was the first to file for the presidential primary in South Carolina, and Ben Carson was right behind him. The two were eager to go after Sen. Lindsey Graham in his home state, where he'd certainly take up the lion's share of the establishment's support.

Pushed for details on her endorsement, Sen. Kelly Ayotte told Greta van Susteren today that she would not be making an endorsement in the New Hampshire primary but would campaign for whoever won the GOP nomination in the general election. Ayotte's decision was only mildly surprising given her upcoming re-election battle, which analysts predicted to be difficult.

On the Democratic side, nobody dropped out. Biden and Chafee put all their bets on New Hampshire, where the former was more popular and the latter had better name recognition, while Jim Webb went all in for South Carolina.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

DELEGATE COUNT - GOP

Scott Walker 23
Rand Paul 3
Marco Rubio 1
Unpledged 3

DELEGATE COUNT - DEMS

Hillary Clinton 46
Unpledged 8

Both totals are projected, pending Iowa's official delegate selection process this summer.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

FEBRUARY 9, 2016 - 7:00 AM

Good Morning America Announces Results of New Hampshire GOP and Democratic Primaries

MICHAEL STRAHAN: Good morning, America, on this beautiful Wednesday. After a long night of counting, we are finally able to project winners for both the Republican and Democratic primaries in the critical state of New Hampshire.

STRAHAN: On the Democratic side, socialist Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont has secured a majority of New Hampshire's votes to win 15 delegates to Hillary Clinton's 6 and Joe Biden's 3.

✓ Bernie Sanders 40%
Hillary Clinton 25%
Joe Biden 15%
Lincoln Chafee 10%
Jim Webb 4%

Sanders ran up big margins in western New Hampshire, where his residual popularity, the far-left leaning of the political climate there, and his strong name recognition gave him a high ceiling. Hillary Clinton took the more suburban coastal portion of the state.

DELEGATE COUNT - DEMS

Hillary Clinton 52
Bernie Sanders 15
Joseph R. Biden, Jr. 3
Unpledged 16

[Coolface Sock #42069]

REPUBLICAN RESULTS

STRAHAN: The Republican results were harder to project due to the closeness of the race, but it's clear now that Scott Walker has pulled out a victory by a thin margin, taking advantage of a divided establishment field, a strong showing by libertarian Sen. Rand Paul, and anti-Donald Trump sentiment among conservatives. Walker has bombarded the state with ads attacking Trump over his comments about Sen. John McCain and a bizzare off-the-record moment last month in which he uttered the word "Wop" within earshot of a hot mic.

✓ Scott Walker 30%
Rand Paul 25%
Jeb Bush 19%
Chris Christie 15%
Donald Trump 8%
Marco Rubio 2%
John Kasich 1%

DELEGATE COUNT

Scott Walker 30
Rand Paul 8
Jeb Bush 3
Chris Christie 3
Marco Rubio 1

[tmthforu94]

Not a fan of Kasich, eh?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Not a fan of Kasich, eh?

Oh, I mean, he isn't my favorite, but I just don't see him gaining much traction because the field is so crowded and he entered late (and will probably have trouble getting media coverage). I really dislike Trump the most.

Full disclosure: I'm a Rubio man.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY - AFTERMATH

After a second straight impressive victory, Scott Walker celebrated with his volunteers and supporters in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.

GOV. SCOTT WALKER: Thank you, New Hampshire!

[cheers]

WALKER: Volunteers, friends, and supporters, we are one step closer to dramatically reducing the size and scope of government.

[speech continues]

The fractured establishment field gave Walker the opening for a New Hampshire win, but now would come his real test: the socially conservative GOP electorate of South Carolina, a state where native son Lindsey Graham loomed large and a Midwestern candidate like Walker was not a natural fit. Walker also had to contend with the heavy campaigning of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, the latter of whom had been the first to declare his candidacy in the state and the former of whom was the beneficiary of the residual popularity of the Bush name in the state. Ben Carson had foregone New Hampshire in favor of the Palmetto State as well. But Walker had the endorsements of several evangelical favorites under his belt, including Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum, and he wouldn't be easy to beat.

South Carolina - Recent Polling

2/11 Rasmussen: Bush + 1
2/11 Public Policy: Rubio + 2
2/12 Quinnipiac: Bush + 7
2/12 ABC/Wash Post: Walker + 1
2/12 InsiderAdvantage: Graham + 4
2/15 CNN/Opinion Research: Carson + 1
2/16 Fox News: Rubio + 3
2/16 WSJ: Rubio + 2
2/17 YouGov: Trump + 1
2/18 NBC/Kaiser: Bush + 4
2/19 Rasmussen: Rubio + 9
2/19 Selzer: Rubio + 5

SIGNIFICANT ENDORSEMENTS
Gov. Nikki Haley has endorsed Lindsey Graham
Gov. Tim Scott has endorsed Marco Rubio
No endorsement yet from Trey Gowdy

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Rand Paul's speech to supporters following second-place finish

RAND PAUL: Thank you, supporters, for pushing me to second place in this very crowded and talented field, for the second time in a row.

[clapping]

PAUL: We may not have won this state, but the voters in the state with a motto "Live Free or Die" have given this liberty lover a finish of which we can once again be proud.

PAUL: Now, the race moves to the south and then to the Mountain West, two places I believe that we can not only compete, but win. We will campaign in earnest, and voters in South Carolina and Nevada will show the nation that they, too, have come to take their country back!

[speech continues]

Rand Paul went to Nevada for whistlestop campaigning while Senator Mitch McConnell headed to South Carolina to campaign for his colleague. Each would make numerous stops in both states before the South Carolina primary.

Chris Christie, seeing a small amount of momentum, opted to stay in the race and hit the coastal areas of South Carolina hard for two days, spending the rest of his time in Nevada, touring with Mitt Romney.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

South Carolina Primary Results
FEBRUARY 20, 2016

BRET BAIER: Hello, and welcome to Special Report. I'm Bret Baier. Breaking news tonight as the polls have closed in the South Carolina presidential primaries, and we can project right out of the gate that the winner of the Democratic primary will be former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

✓ Hillary Clinton 60%
Jim Webb 18%
Joe Biden 12%
Lincoln Chafee 5%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Other or write-in: 2%

BAIER: As you can see, Clinton has dominated the state, with the exception of the Upstate region, in which Jim Webb concentrated his resources over the past few weeks. Upstate is the fastest-growing region in the state by population and will play a growing role in elections to come.

BAIER: Webb won the Third and Fourth Congressional Districts in the state, represented by Jeff Duncan and Trey Gowdy, respectively. These are good for 7 delegates, while the rest of the state's delegates will go to Clinton.

DEMOCRATIC DELEGATE COUNT

Hillary Clinton 96
Bernie Sanders 15
Jim Webb 7
Joe Biden 3

BAIER: On the Republican side, South Carolina is too close to call. Exit polls point to strong finishes for Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. Paul looks to be particularly strong in the state's Black Belt region, where he has given speeches in black churches and barber shops, taking pains to overcome his party's stigma of not caring about blacks. Scott Walker is running well upstate, while Jeb Bush and Chris Christie have each taken a few counties and Rubio appears to have won the rest.

BAIER: Here to discuss the South Carolina results is Washington Post contributor Charles Krauthammer. Charles, what's your take on these results?

KRAUTHAMMER: My money'd be on Rand Paul at this point. He is running well not only in the Black Belt but in Lindsey Graham's home county of Pickens, where he gave a speech at Clemson University a few weeks ago. I'd look for late returns to push Paul over the top. This would be a huge victory for him if he could pull it out. South Carolina was supposed to be the most difficult early state for Paul due to its reputation for social conservatism and aversion to doves.

KRAUTHAMMER: But Jeb Bush has got to be disappointed by this result. It seems the Southern Republican electorate has moved to his right and is looking for fresher faces and ideas. Also disappointing for his close ally, Lindsey Graham, who may not even win his home county. Bush will regroup and forge on, but he's running out of consolation prize states, and it's going to get to the point where he won't be looked at as a serious candidate if he keeps losing.

BAIER: Also near the bottom of the barrel in these exit polls is Donald Trump. As you know, he's had a feud with Fox News over the past few months. He has made many snide comments about the network as well as his competitors, but the only remark for which he has apologized has been the comment at a Nevada fundraiser last month where he used the word "Wop". Is he losing his magic?

KRAUTHAMMER: Without a doubt. Trump, at this point, will have a very difficult time taking the nomination. Southerners were once a huge part of his base, but they've left for greener pastures. They've mostly switched to Walker, Paul, and Senator Marco Rubio, who seems to have had a great night as well.

BAIER: We'll keep you posted on the Republican results as they come in.