Sabato Update: A Small Senate Battlefield

[ElectionsGuy]

A good read if you're an election nerd like me.

IL: Toss-up --> Lean D
NC: Lean R --> Likely R

FL-13: Likely R --> Toss-Up (still pending new district)

Important points included:

The connection of the presidential race to the Senate races,
Illinois blue tilt (with historic data from other states too) that suggests Kirk is very vulnerable
North Carolina Democrats lack of top tier candidates
Other contested Senate seats that Democrats might need (OH, NH, PA).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not with Hilary, she is gonna cruise in IL. Why would voters reelect Kirk. He called his homestate prez bad in negotiations and want appeasement. Duckworth will win.

[Nyvin]

Interesting. My gut feeling tells me that one of Johnson and Kirk will survive. For the moment I think it will be Kirk.

My gut feeling is telling me both of them are sunk.   Especially Johnson.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Interesting. My gut feeling tells me that one of Johnson and Kirk will survive. For the moment I think it will be Kirk.

My gut feeling is telling me both of them are sunk.   Especially Johnson.

Yeah, my gut feeling says they both lose, everyone else holds on, and the GOP picks up Nevada.

The only other state the GOP is very vulnerable in is Ohio with Strickland, but I give Portman better odds there, especially if Kasich is on the ticket.

[PAK Man]

Not with Hilary, she is gonna cruise in IL. Why would voters reelect Kirk. He called his homestate prez bad in negotiations and want appeasement. Duckworth will win.

I'm not counting Kirk out just yet, even with the odds stacked against him. I grew up right on the border of the (old) 9th/10th Congressional Districts, and Kirk was somehow always able to pull off victories, even when he wasn't supposed to. He's well-liked, and in person he comes off as very friendly (I say this as someone who met him briefly back in 2003).

Obama easily won the 10th District in 2008 by 27 points, but Kirk won by 6 points, the same margin he won by in 2006.

I know people will argue that was a House district and it's different than running statewide, but Kirk isn't someone people should automatically assume will lose. Do I think he will lose? Yes, but it's not going to be a blowout.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kirk would have been fine, but several things are going against him:

Schneider will win the seat over Dold

Kirk is certainly not standing by Rauner who will be booted from office too, by Bill Daley. And has a 36.5 approval.

He called out a fellow combat vet in Graham.

[Badger]

Interesting. My gut feeling tells me that one of Johnson and Kirk will survive. For the moment I think it will be Kirk.

My gut feeling is telling me both of them are sunk.   Especially Johnson.

Yeah, my gut feeling says they both lose, everyone else holds on, and the GOP picks up Nevada.

The only other state the GOP is very vulnerable in is Ohio with Strickland, but I give Portman better odds there, especially if Kasich is on the ticket.

As of now, this. The other big question is whether the DSCC is able to break down Hassan's reluctance to run In NH. I doubt she wants to give up likely reelection to the governor's mansion for what would at best be a 50/50 shot against Ayotte.

[Maxwell]

Kirk would have been fine, but several things are going against him:

Schneider will win the seat over Dold

Yeah, this is going to sink him. If Dold only won, Kirk would be reelected easily.

I wouldn't underestimate Dold, especially against Schneider.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Although I'm not particularly optimistic on further Democratic gains, I'm pretty sure Kirk and Johnson are completely  boned even if conditions swing in the GOP's favour. I think Kirk is more stuffed - perhaps, Johnson can get in on the back of a competent national GOP ticket (hahahaha).

[Green Line]

Kirk is screwed. His recent gaffes have really scared away a lot of Rauners campaign apparatus. Its basically accepted now by most of the local Republicans now that hes toast.

[Mr. Illini]

Interesting. My gut feeling tells me that one of Johnson and Kirk will survive. For the moment I think it will be Kirk.

Kirk is finished, and Johnson is well on his way. I think by the end of this, they both lose by double digits.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Interesting. My gut feeling tells me that one of Johnson and Kirk will survive. For the moment I think it will be Kirk.

Kirk is finished, and Johnson is well on his way. I think by the end of this, they both lose by double digits.

Okay, seriously? I agree Duckworth is the favorite, but Kirk isn't like Terri Lynn Land (completely inept) or Bill Brady (tea party). This is going to be competitive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She will probably end up winning by 5-6 pts.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Interesting. My gut feeling tells me that one of Johnson and Kirk will survive. For the moment I think it will be Kirk.

Kirk is finished, and Johnson is well on his way. I think by the end of this, they both lose by double digits.

Okay, seriously? I agree Duckworth is the favorite, but Kirk isn't like Terri Lynn Land (completely inept) or Bill Brady (tea party). This is going to be competitive.

Not really...

[Brittain33]

Interesting. My gut feeling tells me that one of Johnson and Kirk will survive. For the moment I think it will be Kirk.

Kirk is finished, and Johnson is well on his way. I think by the end of this, they both lose by double digits.

Okay, seriously? I agree Duckworth is the favorite, but Kirk isn't like Terri Lynn Land (completely inept) or Bill Brady (tea party). This is going to be competitive.

In a presidential year, it should be as competitive as Scott Brown against Elizabeth Warren in 2012... He may put up a good fight but the math will not allow him to win.

[Xing]

Kirk and Johnson aren't completely done for, but I would definitely consider both of them underdogs by this point, so I don't think a rating of Lean D is unreasonable for either of those races, especially if PA and NH are rated Lean R. My gut tells me that the Democrats will flip IL and WI, and at least one more (FL?), possibly more than that. NV could go either way at this point, but if I had to guess, I think Masto pulls it out, and is helped out by the Democratic ticket for president.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean Dem takeovers are WI, IL, FL. GoP has a very good chance of taking NV.  Then you have Toomey&Portman who are vulnerable. The Dems have 5 targets and GOP have 1 target. Strickland wont go down without a fight. Sestak or McGinty can push Toomey.

[Nyvin]

A PPP poll shows Duckworth ahead of Kirk by 6%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IL_72915.pdf