If Carson wins IA and Trump wins NH, how many candidates drop out before SC?

[Yelnoc]

As the title says, if two perceived light-weights won the first two primaries, perhaps due to heavy vote splitting, how many candidates would actually drop out? Could we still have 10 candidates on the debate stage in mid-February?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Probably because the heavyweights will shrug off these wins as a result of vote splitting, as you mentioned, and will consider that these two won't be able to capitalize on them and gain any momentum.

[Green Line]

I would imagine there will be heavy pressure placed on the remaining "mainstream" candidates to drop out and endorse one another by the establishment and GOP donors. They would be in all out panic by that point.

[skoods]

I reckon some perceived "heavyweights" will have their balloon popped by finishing lower than third in Iowa. If one or two of them fall out of medal position in both states, I could see them dropping out to endorse another mainstream candidate.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I don't care what's going on now.  Carson will not win Iowa, period.  Trump is more likely to win the nomination than Carson is likely to win Iowa.

[Yelnoc]

I don't care what's going on now.  Carson will not win Iowa, period.  Trump is more likely to win the nomination than Carson is likely to win Iowa.

He's not Cain 2.0. He's a reasonably well-spoken "outsider" candidate who's gained a loyal following among a certain set of conservatives. He shouldn't be so easily dismissed (though I do still consider him a lightweight).

[Famous Mortimer]

If this happened, which it won't, a brokered convention would become a real possibility.

Also, party leaders would probably throw their support behind IRV for primaries.