GOP Gubernatorial Election Trend

[Pragmatic Conservative]

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[MT Treasurer]

Definitely Vermont.

[Maxwell]

Vermont. Possibly Washington, if the year goes poorly for Inslee (who doesn't seem to have very strong support either way).

[Bojack Horseman]

I'm going with Washington. There hasn't been a convincing win for the Dems in the last several cycles, especially considering the streak came 150 votes from ending in 2004.

[andrew_c]

Vermont and Washington are equally likely to flip.  The right Republican and/or the wrong Democrat will result in Republican gains.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Which one first?  Probably Vermont, since Shumlin's immediate predecessor was a Republican, and there are a few strong candidates they could nominate. 

Washington state is not going to do it anytime soon.  The state GOP is in complete shambles, and the electorate is becoming is becoming more and more liberal, largely due to the fact that King County is steadily becoming more Democrat.  Kim Wyman is the only remaining Republican elected statewide, and she barely managed to win in 2012 (with just under 40% in King County).  Plus, Inslee is popular enough that he will probably dispatch any GOP challenger easily (but of course, that could change.)

I'm going with Washington. There hasn't been a convincing win for the Dems in the last several cycles, especially considering the streak came 150 votes from ending in 2004.

It did end in 2004, but the Democrats suddenly "discovered" new votes and stole it in true Al Franken fashion.

[Türkisblau]

I'm going with Washington. There hasn't been a convincing win for the Dems in the last several cycles, especially considering the streak came 150 votes from ending in 2004.

It did end in 2004, but the Democrats suddenly "discovered" new votes and stole it in true Al Franken fashion.

Pub hacks complaining about electoral fraud is truly one of the cutest things I've noticed on Atlas since I joined.

It's like this adorable video of a fawn trying to take it's first steps. You're really trying to make a point but just keep falling down!

[Bigby]

Vermont. It sounds odd at first until you look at the state politics rather than solely the national politics.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Vermont. It sounds odd at first until you look at the state politics rather than solely the national politics.

This.

[sg0508]

The Republicans have put up decent candidates in WA state.  It's OR where the state party is basically dead.  In WA, the problems for the Republicans are:

1) They elect their governors in presidential years
2) The two is essentially split and very polarized; the western half is far bigger (liberal) politically and in population size
3) Republicans who run, have to move to the right in the primary and then try to moderate in the general election. Too late.  How many times from Slade Gorton to Rossi and going forward have the WA state Republicans tried this and lost?

VT is probably the best answer, but you have to win >50% I believe in VT to win. Thus, in a 3-way race, a non-incumbent republican is not likely to get that.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Vermont, where there's at least a sentimental love for old school New England Republicans.  A majority of local offices are still held by Republicans in VT (like sheriff).

[Pragmatic Conservative]

The Republicans have put up decent candidates in WA state.  It's OR where the state party is basically dead.  In WA, the problems for the Republicans are:

1) They elect their governors in presidential years
2) The two is essentially split and very polarized; the western half is far bigger (liberal) politically and in population size
3) Republicans who run, have to move to the right in the primary and then try to moderate in the general election. Too late.  How many times from Slade Gorton to Rossi and going forward have the WA state Republicans tried this and lost?

VT is probably the best answer, but you have to win >50% I believe in VT to win. Thus, in a 3-way race, a non-incumbent republican is not likely to get that.

If the third party were the Vermont Progressive Party would they not split the vote with the Democrats allowing the Republican candidate an easier chance at winning.

[Xing]

Probably Vermont, because, unlike Washington, Republicans actually have a chance of winning gubernatorial elections. Unless an actual moderate Republican (as opposed to a conservative who holds a few moderate views) runs, Republicans are going to continually lose in Washington.

[Suburbia]

Washington in 2020.

[Xing]

Probably Vermont, because, unlike Washington, Republicans actually have a chance of winning gubernatorial elections. Unless an actual moderate Republican (as opposed to a conservative who holds a few moderate views) runs, Republicans are going to continually lose in Washington.

Even if they ran moderate Republicans in WA, they'd lose. It's like OR's big brother lol.

They'd still be likely to lose, but they'd have a chance. If they run conservatives, they'll continue to be disappointed.

[Vosem]

If we're talking the 2016/2018 cycle, Vermont is the best shot. If we're talking ever, then all of them eventually.

[smoltchanov]

If we're talking the 2016/2018 cycle, Vermont is the best shot. If we're talking ever, then all of them eventually.

May be. But you will (most likely) need Peter Behr-style Republican to win governorship of California, and i am not sure that such politicians exist now..

[Torie]

If Cuomo runs again, Gibson has a shot against him. The liberal white gentry really dislikes Cuomo, particularly upstate, as do the teachers' union, who has made noises about potentially supporting Gibson.

[Free Bird]

Vermont doesn't really have an issue with electing local Republicans

[Kingpoleon]

New York.

If Cuomo wins the primary in 2018, a De Blasio Progressive could take the WF and possibly Liberal nominations to split their vote. Cuomo could take the Liberal Party's nomination if he loses.

Either way, Cuomo has all moderate Democrats locked up and De Blasio has most of the base ready to play.

[Figueira]

I think the Republicans have a decentish chance of taking Vermont next year. If they don't, then it could easily be any of them, I guess.

[mds32]

Vermont and if not Vermont then it could be New York. Rep. Gibson could topple Gov. Cuomo if things keep going the way they are for Gov. Cuomo upstate.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Vermont, where there's at least a sentimental love for old school New England Republicans.  A majority of local offices are still held by Republicans in VT (like sheriff).

Somewhat of a tangent, but why do you suppose Vermont's local political life has remained Republican? My hunch is that older residents with deep roots in Vermont are more likely to vote in local elections (Same reason why there are STILL some Dixiecrat holdout counties in the Deep South ).

[Rockefeller GOP]

Vermont, where there's at least a sentimental love for old school New England Republicans.  A majority of local offices are still held by Republicans in VT (like sheriff).

Somewhat of a tangent, but why do you suppose Vermont's local political life has remained Republican? My hunch is that older residents with deep roots in Vermont are more likely to vote in local elections (Same reason why there are STILL some Dixiecrat holdout counties in the Deep South ).

Not being from the state itself, I can only make an educated guess, but I think it's a couple things.  1) Upper New England (VT, NH, ME) has always seemed to pride itself on being "independent minded," and I think it makes people up here (or at least the very crucial group that is the swing voters) uncomfortable giving a fringe too much power.  I know that sounds weird because VT is so liberal now, but I think a lot of older Vermonters feel that way (why they could vote for a GOP governor and Bernie Sanders in the same year).  2) VT has a deeply Republican heritage, and I think given the choice between a moderately liberal GOP (doesn't exist nationally, obviously) and their current Democrats, they'd actually prefer the former, but they're not voting for the current national GOP anytime soon.  I think a lot of old Vermonters would give the inverse answer of many old Southerners regarding their politics ("the national GOP 'left me'").

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Bump Congrats to everyone that said Vermont.