Democrat Gubernatorial Election Trends
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Poll
Question: What long time GOP states Governorship will go Democrat first
#1
Texas
#2
Idaho
#3
Arizona
#4
Mississippi
#5
Utah
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Democrat Gubernatorial Election Trends  (Read 2282 times)
Pragmatic Conservative
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« on: July 25, 2015, 12:01:05 PM »

Please feel free to comment after voting
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2015, 01:25:04 PM »

I feel Utah is more flexible than any of the other states there, especially if a Matheson type runs.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2015, 01:56:27 PM »

Nobody would be overly shocked if Arizona elected a Democratic governor.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2015, 08:11:09 PM »

Arizona. It's only been since 2006 that they've elected a Democratic governor. Utah hasn't since 1976 IIRC, and I'm not even sure Idaho has ever had a Democratic governor tbh.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2015, 09:26:27 PM »

Arizona. It's only been since 2006 that they've elected a Democratic governor. Utah hasn't since 1976 IIRC, and I'm not even sure Idaho has ever had a Democratic governor tbh.

Idaho elected one in 1990. And they had Democratic governors for most of the late 20th century.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2015, 10:21:11 PM »

Arizona. It's only been since 2006 that they've elected a Democratic governor. Utah hasn't since 1976 IIRC, and I'm not even sure Idaho has ever had a Democratic governor tbh.

Idaho elected one in 1990. And they had Democratic governors for most of the late 20th century.

That was more of a joke.
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windjammer
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« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2015, 02:43:07 PM »

Arizona and Mississippi.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2015, 02:54:09 PM »

Arizona, a pretty clear answer.

I feel Utah is more flexible than any of the other states there, especially if a Matheson type runs.

Utah has been solidly Republican at the state and federal level since the 1980's. Whatever flexibility it has is countered by its overwhelming margin of Republicans to Democrats.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2015, 05:40:53 PM »

Well, it really depends on which part of the GOP coalition is most likely to give out first:

Arizona: white retirees and anti-immigration activists (not mutually exclusive)

Idaho: Mormons and rural white Evangelicals

Texas: culturally Southern suburbs, rural white Evangelicals, fossil fuels, plus  ~40% of Hispanics

Utah: Mormons (non-Mormons are 2:1 Dem in Utah), plus a bit of fossil fuels

I would favor Arizona, but some random issue could pull Utah Mormons to the center.

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Zioneer
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« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2015, 09:10:19 PM »

I feel Utah is more flexible than any of the other states there, especially if a Matheson type runs.

Right now, a Matheson type (or specifically Matheson himself) is Utah's only chance for a Democratic Governor. But since he's become a DC lobbyist, I doubt he'll try for governor (or senator) in 2016. Too many opportunities for attack ads against him. Anyone else, even a moderate (see Peter Cooke in 2012) will lose horribly.

Arizona. It's only been since 2006 that they've elected a Democratic governor. Utah hasn't since 1976 IIRC, and I'm not even sure Idaho has ever had a Democratic governor tbh.

You're correct in that Scott Matheson (Jim Matheson's dad) was first elected governor in 1976, though he did win re-election in 1980. Though if I remember correctly, the Democratic nominee in 1988 came within 2% of winning due to a conservative anti-tax independent splitting the Republican vote.

Oh, and Arizona will probably be the first of these states to elect a Democratic governor again. Demographics and a slightly more competent state Democratic party than the other states.
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Vega
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« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2015, 11:43:15 PM »

You're correct in that Scott Matheson (Jim Matheson's dad) was first elected governor in 1976, though he did win re-election in 1980. Though if I remember correctly, the Democratic nominee in 1988 came within 2% of winning due to a conservative anti-tax independent splitting the Republican vote.

Being a Matheson alone, though, doesn't obviously guarantee you gubernatorial success. Scott Matheson, Jr. in 2004 proved that.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2015, 02:41:36 AM »

You're correct in that Scott Matheson (Jim Matheson's dad) was first elected governor in 1976, though he did win re-election in 1980. Though if I remember correctly, the Democratic nominee in 1988 came within 2% of winning due to a conservative anti-tax independent splitting the Republican vote.

Being a Matheson alone, though, doesn't obviously guarantee you gubernatorial success. Scott Matheson, Jr. in 2004 proved that.

True. Though he was up against Huntsman, who was and is essentially Utah royalty. Scott Jr did pretty well in light of that and 2004 and it's "get the social conservative vote" theme. In any case, Huntsman and Romney are quite popular here, though Huntsman's popularity has diminished for a while, since he's less openly Mormon than Romney.

To get back to my original point, Jim Matheson is the only Utah Democrat who could win a Gubernatorial or Senate race in Utah at this point. And even then, recent polls have shown that he'd have an uphill battle. So I doubt Matheson will even try, which means Utah won't have even a chance of a Democratic Governor for at least this cycle (and probably 2020 as well).
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2015, 09:18:42 AM »

What about Doug Owens? He came very close in 2014 in an EXTREMELY Republican district. If he was recruited for Governor in 2018 I think he'd have a serious shot.
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Vega
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« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2015, 09:28:45 AM »

What about Doug Owens? He came very close in 2014 in an EXTREMELY Republican district. If he was recruited for Governor in 2018 I think he'd have a serious shot.
He announced that he'll be running for Congress  again, though if he wins, he'll definitely be in contention for 2020 (Utah idiosyncratically holds elections for Governor in Presidential years).
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2015, 01:46:37 PM »

What about Doug Owens? He came very close in 2014 in an EXTREMELY Republican district. If he was recruited for Governor in 2018 I think he'd have a serious shot.
He announced that he'll be running for Congress  again, though if he wins, he'll definitely be in contention for 2020 (Utah idiosyncratically holds elections for Governor in Presidential years).

Oh that's right, I forgot the 2010 election was just an abnormally thanks to Huntsman's appointment as Ambassador to China.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2015, 01:48:12 AM »

What about Doug Owens? He came very close in 2014 in an EXTREMELY Republican district. If he was recruited for Governor in 2018 I think he'd have a serious shot.

If Doug Owens manages to win against Mia Love next year and hold on for a midterm, he'd definitely be a possibility for Governor in 2020.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #16 on: August 04, 2015, 08:10:01 AM »

Obvious answer is obvious: Arizona.  Remember, they elected Janet Napolitano twice.  Plus, Democrats are close enough at all levels to win it with the right candidate.
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Bigby
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2015, 06:01:51 PM »

Easily Arizona. The only Democrat I could expect to win the Governorship in a state such as Utah is Jim Matheson, and even then I would not bet my life on it.
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pikachu
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« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2015, 02:08:07 AM »

Arizona. Utah has the issue of being in a Presidential year. A very outside shot at Idaho though. (It was close in 2006.)
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: September 02, 2015, 06:18:20 PM »

Arizona, as a Democrat winning a gubernatorial race there in a good year for Democrats wouldn't be particularly remarkable.
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Blue3
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« Reply #20 on: September 05, 2015, 11:26:00 PM »

Arizona had a Democratic governor in 2009...
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