Can you name a scenario where the GOP primary fight will lead to a brokered con?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

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[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bush, Walker, Rubio, and Trump are all winning states. Every time Trump decides one of the other 3 is getting too powerful, he totally unloads all his attacks on said candidate, which includes another $50 million of ads.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Bush, Walker, Rubio, and Trump are all winning states. Every time Trump decides one of the other 3 is getting too powerful, he totally unloads all his attacks on said candidate, which includes another $50 million of ads.

Yeah with the money that Trump has, he could do serious damage to a candidate if he wanted to, and he's not afraid to do that. Especially with Jeb.

[Yelnoc]

Bush and Kasich are both destroyed by scandal or gaffe, leaving the party with no potential consensus candidate. Paul, Cruz, Carson, Trump, etc all win states, leaving no clear winner by the convention.

I wonder who would be imposed as the "consensus" candidate in such a scenario.

[Blair]

Paul Ryan seems a likely comprise candidate, he was floated as one in 2012 during the Romney Panic

But really, as well all know a brokered convention is extremely unlikely-if Obama and Hillary didnt do it in 2008 then who would?

[Mehmentum]

Moderate Candidate (Bush) vs. Mainstream Conservative Candidate (Walker or Rubio) vs. Evangelical Candidate (Huckabee or Carson)

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Moderate Candidate (Bush, Trump, Rubio) vs. Tea Party Conservative Candidate (Walker , Cruz , Paul)  vs. Evangelical Candidate (Huckabee or Carson)

Reason why I put Trump with the establishment wing is this. His views are more progressive than what the media is portraying.

[Publius]

Paul Ryan seems a likely comprise candidate, he was floated as one in 2012 during the Romney Panic

But really, as well all know a brokered convention is extremely unlikely-if Obama and Hillary didnt do it in 2008 then who would?

The big difference is that a two-candidate race makes it almost impossible for one to not get a majority by the end of the primaries. Here we have many competitors.

To get a brokered convention. I believe each of these are realistic, though all of them happening in tandem is unlikely.
-Bush doesn't win any of the first three states (Iowa can easily go to Walker, Cruz, or Huckabee; New Hampshire to Walker, Paul, or Christie; South Carolina to Walker, Graham, or Cruz). He'll still do well on Super Tuesday due to the money, but he won't be able to easily put it away after.
-We get some favorite son action--Graham in South Carolina, Perry or Cruz in Texas, Kasich in Ohio, Rubio blunts Bush's win in Florida (hopefully it won't be winner-take-all again). Significant states.
-The contest is whittled down to a handful of candidates instead of A) 2, or B) So many that it looks like Bush--who will have a slower than expected but still consistent delegate haul--and the seven dwarfs.
-Bush, Walker, a Texan, and one other (Paul? Kasich? Trump?) go the distance.

[Suburbia]

Paul Ryan,  John Thune would be the consensus choices.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'd think that the compromise would be Romney.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

The short answer to the question is, NO, NO, A THOUSAND TIMES NO! 

The GOP establishment will not let it get to the point where their battle with Trump will be aired on National TV.  They will coalesce around someone else to ensure that, at worst, there will be a first round of balloting.  That's it.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The short answer to the question is, NO, NO, A THOUSAND TIMES NO! 

The GOP establishment will not let it get to the point where their battle with Trump will be aired on National TV.  They will coalesce around someone else to ensure that, at worst, there will be a first round of balloting.  That's it.

It's not in their hands. Whatever else he is, Trump is a master showman and he knows that a brokered convention will be great TV.

[Mister Mets]

There are several scenarios.

It requires that the top candidate not get 50 percent of pledged delegates. The main way I see that happening is if there's a clash between two frontrunners, with a third candidate getting some support. Huckabee or Rand Paul could easily fit that role, since they could have a strong base of support.

It is a bit unlikely, though.

The establishment would unite if somone they consider unacceptable is leading in the polls.

With Hillary and Obama in 2008, there was more of a cultural divide. It was about experience and the possibility of the first female President versus change, youth and the possibility of the first African-American President. I don't see Republicans getting as passionate about likely match-ups (Bush VS Rubio, Rubio VS Walker, Bush VS Walker.) There's likely to be a point where the frontrunner pulls away.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

There are several scenarios.

It requires that the top candidate not get 50 percent of pledged delegates. The main way I see that happening is if there's a clash between two frontrunners, with a third candidate getting some support. Huckabee or Rand Paul could easily fit that role, since they could have a strong base of support.

It is a bit unlikely, though.

The establishment would unite if somone they consider unacceptable is leading in the polls.

With Hillary and Obama in 2008, there was more of a cultural divide. It was about experience and the possibility of the first female President versus change, youth and the possibility of the first African-American President. I don't see Republicans getting as passionate about likely match-ups (Bush VS Rubio, Rubio VS Walker, Bush VS Walker.) There's likely to be a point where the frontrunner pulls away.

If the top 2 candidates are over 50%, it's all over.

If candidate 2 and 3 are over 50%, it's all over. 

[Mister Mets]

Trump might end up a spoiler, staying on the ballot for the fun of it, and getting enough delegates to prevent anyone else from crossing the 50 percent threshhold.

There are several scenarios.

It requires that the top candidate not get 50 percent of pledged delegates. The main way I see that happening is if there's a clash between two frontrunners, with a third candidate getting some support. Huckabee or Rand Paul could easily fit that role, since they could have a strong base of support.

It is a bit unlikely, though.

The establishment would unite if somone they consider unacceptable is leading in the polls.

With Hillary and Obama in 2008, there was more of a cultural divide. It was about experience and the possibility of the first female President versus change, youth and the possibility of the first African-American President. I don't see Republicans getting as passionate about likely match-ups (Bush VS Rubio, Rubio VS Walker, Bush VS Walker.) There's likely to be a point where the frontrunner pulls away.

If the top 2 candidates are over 50%, it's all over.

If candidate 2 and 3 are over 50%, it's all over.  

We haven't seen a primary in which the top candidate failed to get 50% in over a generation, so we really don't know what'll happen, especially with multiple candidates acceptable to the establishment.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Trump might end up a spoiler, staying on the ballot for the fun of it, and getting enough delegates to prevent anyone else from crossing the 50 percent threshhold.

There are several scenarios.

It requires that the top candidate not get 50 percent of pledged delegates. The main way I see that happening is if there's a clash between two frontrunners, with a third candidate getting some support. Huckabee or Rand Paul could easily fit that role, since they could have a strong base of support.

It is a bit unlikely, though.

The establishment would unite if somone they consider unacceptable is leading in the polls.

With Hillary and Obama in 2008, there was more of a cultural divide. It was about experience and the possibility of the first female President versus change, youth and the possibility of the first African-American President. I don't see Republicans getting as passionate about likely match-ups (Bush VS Rubio, Rubio VS Walker, Bush VS Walker.) There's likely to be a point where the frontrunner pulls away.

If the top 2 candidates are over 50%, it's all over.

If candidate 2 and 3 are over 50%, it's all over.  

We haven't seen a primary in which the top candidate failed to get 50% in over a generation, so we really don't know what'll happen, especially with multiple candidates acceptable to the establishment.

Trump can't force a brokered convention, but he could win enough delegates to wreck havoc on TV if the GOP gangs up on him and tries to stop him.  It would be one thing if Trump has 20% of the delegates, but what if he had actually gained 40% of the delegates?  It would mean that he had won most of the primaries, and had gotten more primary votes than any other Republican.

Would the GOP at that point make an accommodation with Trump?  Would they decide to let him be the nominee and get him out of their hair?  Because Trump, at 40% of the delegates, would be a candidate of the rank and file at that point, and any plan to preempt his nomination would infuriate many ordinary Republican voters who would view themselves as disenfranchised.

If Trump is getting 30-40% of the delegates, it means that the race has spun in a direction far beyond what the establishment planned.  I've got to believe that a number of establishment types will conclude that they miscalculated, and that they shouldn't have attacked Trump so early in the campaign.  They'll HAVE to "suck up" to Trump, and he might not settle for anything less than the nomination. 

If Trump is denied a nomination he can be viewed as having earned, lots of bad things for the GOP can happen.  Such a perception would undoubtedly elect Hillary, even if Trump were not a third party candidate.  Such a result, however, would suggest that the GOP rank and file is in a different place on a whole lot of issues than people think they are.

Trump is not as far away from the GOP on issues as, say, George Wallace was far away from the Democratic mainstream in 1972.  Compromise is possible, but the rhetoric against Trump has made it hard for a lot of folks to eat crow if they needed to for party unity.