NH-Marist: Trump and Clinton ahead, momentum for Kasich.
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  NH-Marist: Trump and Clinton ahead, momentum for Kasich.
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Author Topic: NH-Marist: Trump and Clinton ahead, momentum for Kasich.  (Read 3914 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: July 26, 2015, 08:03:42 AM »
« edited: July 26, 2015, 08:10:05 AM by Senator Cris »

Trump 21%
Bush 14%
Walker 12%
Kasich 7%

Hillary 47%
Sanders 34%
O'Malley 5%
Chafee 2%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2015, 08:15:04 AM »

Full #s:

PDF link

Dems

Clinton 42%
Sanders 32%
Biden 12%
O'Malley 3%
Chafee 2%
Webb 1%

If Biden doesn't run:

Clinton 47%
Sanders 34%
O'Malley 5%
Chafee 2%
Webb 1%

GOP

Trump 21%
Bush 14%
Walker 12%
Kasich 7%
Christie 6%
Carson 6%
Rubio 5%
Cruz 5%
Paul 4%
Huckabee 3%
Fiorina 2%
Pataki 2%
Perry, Jindal, Santorum, Graham, Gilmore 0%
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Peeperkorn
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« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2015, 08:18:17 AM »

Trump Smiley

Paul Sad
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2015, 08:24:38 AM »

Man, if Trump actually manages to maintain a lead in NH for the next several months while Walker maintains a lead in Iowa, it could definitely earn Walker some support from party elders, if he's seen as the most likely slayer of Trump.

But the race is probably too fluid to expect any of this to last for long.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2015, 09:10:55 AM »

Politico notes that a pro-Kasich Super PAC has spent $1.8 million on TV ads in NH in the past three weeks:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/donald-trump-new-hampshire-iowa-120628.html?hp=l1_3
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2015, 09:40:03 AM »

Politico notes that a pro-Kasich Super PAC has spent $1.8 million on TV ads in NH in the past three weeks:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/donald-trump-new-hampshire-iowa-120628.html?hp=l1_3

Yes, I have noted this ad-buy before as well and of course it's only logical that Kasich is on the way up in NH right now.
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dudeabides
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« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2015, 09:41:47 AM »

If Trump is the GOP nominee, my vote will be for:

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Free Bird
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« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2015, 10:00:33 AM »

Was this taken before or after Kasich jumped in?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2015, 10:03:30 AM »

Was this taken before or after Kasich jumped in?

In the week before. But right when his TV ads aired in NH.

Which means he could be around 10% already ...
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Pyro
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« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2015, 12:43:18 PM »

#Kasichmentum!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2015, 01:17:28 PM »

Favorable ratings among all registered NH voters:

56-41 Clinton (Bill) +15
41-29 Sanders +12
48-46 Bush (G.W.) +2

40-45 Bush (Jeb) -5
28-34 Walker -6
28-34 Rubio -6
43-53 Obama (Barack) -10
37-57 Clinton (Hillary) -20
27-67 Trump -40
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2015, 01:31:13 PM »

Part of the GOP sample that was conducted before the Trump comments:

26% Trump
15% Bush
10% Walker
  7% Christie
  6% Paul
  6% Rubio
  5% Cruz
  5% Kasich
  3% Carson
  2% Huckabee
  2% Fiorina
  2% Pataki
  1% Jindal
10% Undecided

Part of the GOP sample that was conducted after the Trump comments:

14% Trump
14% Walker
12% Bush
  9% Kasich
  9% Carson
  6% Christie
  4% Rubio
  4% Cruz
  4% Huckabee 
  2% Fiorina
  2% Pataki 
  1% Paul
  1% Perry
  1% Santorum
16% Undecided
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2015, 01:36:20 PM »

I'm reminded of a Douglas Adams quote:

"There is a theory which states that if ever anyone discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable.

There is another theory which states that this has already happened."

The second theory appears to be true. I'm glad that they separated out the data concerning Trump's comments, but he's still tied even after them. Wow.
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Devils30
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« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2015, 11:12:42 PM »

Hillary's favorables are down but these polls seem a bit overboard. It might be that they are over sampling GOP primary voters in the general election matchups?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2015, 02:15:30 AM »

I just got into an argument with a large group of people who believe Kasich won't crack the top five in New Hampshire and called this poll an outlier.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2015, 03:52:22 PM »

Man, if Trump actually manages to maintain a lead in NH for the next several months while Walker maintains a lead in Iowa, it could definitely earn Walker some support from party elders, if he's seen as the most likely slayer of Trump.

But the race is probably too fluid to expect any of this to last for long.

If Trump does well, the people at the top are very happy, because it means less competition for positive news stories.

If Trump, Walker and Huckabee are the top three in Iowa, people aren't talking about Jeb or Rubio, so that would be a great week for Walker.

Likewise if the top three is Trump, Rubio and Rand Paul, it's a great week for Rubio as the most prominent of the establishment guys heading into New Hampshire.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
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« Reply #16 on: July 27, 2015, 11:17:24 PM »

Favorable ratings among all registered NH voters:

41-29 Sanders +12
37-57 Clinton (Hillary) -20

Gee, I wonder who would do better in the general election.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2015, 09:00:38 AM »

Favorable ratings among all registered NH voters:

41-29 Sanders +12
37-57 Clinton (Hillary) -20

Gee, I wonder who would do better in the general election.

Obviously, Hillary.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #18 on: July 28, 2015, 09:07:52 AM »

I wonder how much Clinton's fall in approvals from a month ago result from her getting visible (if not viable) opponents, shifting a bunch of Dems from tepid approval to active disapproval that will flip back after she wins the nomination.

I am certain the split in the GOP field accounts for higher disapprovals on individuals there until everyone rallies around the winner.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2015, 09:46:28 AM »

New Poll: New Hampshire President by Marist College on 2015-07-21

Summary:
Trump:
21%
Bush:
14%
Walker:
12%
Kasich:
7%
Carson:
6%
Christie:
6%
Other:
21%
Undecided:
13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2015, 09:51:06 AM »

New Poll: New Hampshire President by Marist College on 2015-07-21

Summary:
Clinton:
42%
Sanders:
32%
Biden:
12%
Other:
4%
Undecided:
10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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