CNN/ORC-National: Trump ahead.

[Senator Cris]

Trump 18%
Bush 15%
Walker 10%

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/26/politics/cnn-poll-presidential-race/index.html

[Mr. Morden]

Trump 18%
Bush 14%
Walker 7%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 8%
Paul 6%
Carson 5%
Huckabee 5%
Perry 4%
Christie 4%
Kasich 3%
Fiorina 3%
Jindal 2%
Santorum 2%
Graham 1%
Pataki 1%
Gilmore 0%

UPDATE: Never mind, it's actually this:

Ok I found the actual results, it's on page 12. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2179399-cnn-orc-poll-2016-election-9-a-m-july-26-2015.html

Trump 18%
Bush 15%
Walker 10%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 6%
Paul 6%
Huckabee 5%
Carson 4%
Kasich 4%
Christie 4%
Perry 3%
Jindal 2%
Santorum 2%
Fiorina 1%
Graham 1%
Pataki 1%
Gilmore *

[Donerail]

Perry at 4% should help him get the tenth slot over Kasich, no?

[Mr. Morden]

Perry at 4% should help him get the tenth slot over Kasich, no?

Yeah, didn't Kasich announce on July 21?  This poll was taken from the 22nd-25th, so should include any post-announcement bounce.  Kasich had better hope he has a slow-moving bounce that hasn't crested yet, or he won't be invited to the debate in his own state.

[Mr. Morden]

There's a huge age gap for Trump.  He has twice as much support among those under 50 as he has over 50.  Bush leads among those over 50, and Walker leads among those over 65.  Trump also does notably better among those who never went to college.

He is the beer track candidate for the youngsters.  Would these people actually show up to vote though?

[Tender Branson]

There's a huge age gap for Trump.  He has twice as much support among those under 50 as he has over 50.  Bush leads among those over 50, and Walker leads among those over 65.  Trump also does notably better among those who never went to college.

He is the beer track candidate for the youngsters.  Would these people actually show up to vote though?

It's possible. People think Trump is an idiot or "dumb", when in fact he's relatively smart in running his campaign like a business person would. Trump knows "his folk" or segment of the GOP much better than the establishment types and what they want to hear. With his aggressive campaign talk he hits a nerve with at least 20% of the GOP electorate and this is unlikely to go away in the next months. Trump also understands that elections often works like retail business and that huge attention will also mean a lot of votes ... This further means that if he manages to stay in the news right up to the first primaries, then he could also bring large segments of the young/disinterested people to the polls, much like Obama did in 2007/08.

[The Other Castro]

I think there's something weird with CNN's writeup.  When I go to the detailed poll results here:

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/26/politics/cnn-orc-poll-data/index.html

the numbers it lists for the RV sample of Republicans and Republican-leaners are:

Trump 18%
Bush 14%
Walker 7%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 8%
Paul 6%
Carson 5%
Huckabee 5%
Perry 4%
Christie 4%
Kasich 3%
Fiorina 3%
Jindal 2%
Santorum 2%
Graham 1%
Pataki 1%
Gilmore 0%

Are these the numbers for the question about who you would like to see on the debate stage? I think the results for actual primary polling questions are elsewhere since RCP has Kasich at 4 and Perry at 3.

[The Other Castro]

Ok I found the actual results, it's on page 12. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2179399-cnn-orc-poll-2016-election-9-a-m-july-26-2015.html

Trump 18%
Bush 15%
Walker 10%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 6%
Paul 6%
Huckabee 5%
Carson 4%
Kasich 4%
Christie 4%
Perry 3%
Jindal 2%
Santorum 2%
Fiorina 1%
Graham 1%
Pataki 1%
Gilmore *

[Mr. Morden]

Ok I found the actual results, it's on page 12. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2179399-cnn-orc-poll-2016-election-9-a-m-july-26-2015.html

Trump 18%
Bush 15%
Walker 10%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 6%
Paul 6%
Huckabee 5%
Carson 4%
Kasich 4%
Christie 4%
Perry 3%
Jindal 2%
Santorum 2%
Fiorina 1%
Graham 1%
Pataki 1%
Gilmore *

Ah, yes, you're right.  Good call.