Megathread: Congressional Vote on the Iran Deal

[Gass3268]

Who will be #34?

[Blair]

Interesting article on the post about it

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/09/01/chris-coons-backs-iran-deal-putting-obama-on-the-brink-of-a-major-diplomatic-victory/

[Gass3268]

Reps. Elijah Cummings (D-MD), Kurt Schrader (D-OR), and Adam Smith (D-WA) all support the deal.

[Gass3268]

Reps. Joaquín Castro (D-TX), Mike Doyle (D-PA), and Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) all support the deal. Currently there are 91 Yes votes.

Obviously the New York City Area Democratic delegation has the biggest divide of any metropolitan area. The interesting fact for me is that the best area for the Deal is Brooklyn, which ironically enough if home to the largest group of Orthodox Jews outside of Israel and probably the biggest opponents of the deal. I also could see the Bronx delegation coming in strong for the Deal.

[SATW]

Bob Casey will vote for the deal. Disgusting. Now I regret my 2012 vote for him even more.

[Gass3268]

Bob Casey will vote for the deal. Disgusting. Now I regret my 2012 vote for him even more.

Thank you Senator Bob Casey

[Angel of Death]

Who will be #34?

It's Mikulski.

[Gass3268]

Who will be #34?

It's Mikulski.

On to 41!

[Crumpets]

Well, at this point, Manchin is leaning yes, which gets us to 35. The 9 undecided Democrats are Bennet, Blumenthal, Booker, Cantwell, Cardin, Heitkamp, Peters, Warner, and Wyden. Obama only needs Manchin plus six of those to filibuster. Who are the three most likely of those to vote no? Booker, Wyden, and Heitkamp?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Well, at this point, Manchin is leaning yes, which gets us to 35. The 9 undecided Democrats are Bennet, Blumenthal, Booker, Cantwell, Cardin, Heitkamp, Peters, Warner, and Wyden. Obama only needs Manchin plus six of those to filibuster. Who are the three most likely of those to vote no? Booker, Wyden, and Heitkamp?

Cardin would be one of the more likely No votes.

[Gass3268]

Reps. Judy Chu (D-CA) and Corrine Brown (D-FL) both support the Deal.

Also Pelosi states that House Dems will uphold Obama's veto (if it even gets that far).

When Pelosi says she has the votes, she has the votes.

[Mehmentum]

So it looks like its over.  All thats left is to see if Obama will even need to veto. 

[moderatevoter]

There's been a lot of discussion about how the opposition effort, which was supposed to put Democrats in a tight bind, has fallen flat. Does anyone think Trump contributed to this? Trump saturated the airwaves all summer long, taking attention away from the debate over this agreement.

At this point, I'm curious if some of the undecideds vote no, because the votes are already there to uphold a veto.

[Blair]

There's been a lot of discussion about how the opposition effort, which was supposed to put Democrats in a tight bind, has fallen flat. Does anyone think Trump contributed to this? Trump saturated the airwaves all summer long, taking attention away from the debate over this agreement.

At this point, I'm curious if some of the undecideds vote no, because the votes are already there to uphold a veto.

Partly, I read that most of it's been focused on the east coast which could explain Schumer and Mendenez, although they've always been the most likely to vote against. There's been some debate about the general failure of AIPAC and the other more hawkish Israeli lobby groups

[Mehmentum]

There are simpler explanations.

a.) The Democratic party has been moving away from Isreal.  Not that they're becoming hostile to Isreal, but they're more and more, Demcrats aren't going to go along with something because Isreal wants it.

b.) Most vulnerable Democrats were wiped out in 2010 and 2014.  What do senators in Washington and Massachusetts have to fear from AIPAC?

c). This will be Obama's signature foreign policy accomplishment (aside, of course, from killing Bin Laden).  Aside from TPP, congressional Democrats have always closed ranks around the president.

[Gass3268]

Reps. Robin Kelly (D-IL) and Peter Aguilar (D-CA) both support the Deal.

[Gass3268]

Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY) and Ann McLane Kuster (D-NH) both support the deal.

[Gass3268]

I'm thinking that Walter Jones and Thomas Massie will vote yes.

That would be nice.

[moderatevoter]

Sen. Booker (D-NJ) is a yes.

[The Other Castro]

Sen. Booker (D-NJ) is a yes.

FF

[Gass3268]

Sen. Booker (D-NJ) is a yes.

I think they are going to get to 41, but it sounds like Coons and Manchin will not vote for a filibuster, so I don't think its going to happen.

[The Other Castro]

Why wouldn't they vote for a filibuster?

[Gass3268]

Why wouldn't they vote for a filibuster?

"Deal deserves an up or down vote"

[moderatevoter]

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) is a yes, as well. 36. At least that's what Josh Earnest says.

[Gass3268]

Wow, I really wonder if there will only be 2 Democratic Nay's.