Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015

[VPH]

I'm wondering if the immigration crisis may well propel Golden Dawn to hit 7.5-9%

[ag]

I'm wondering if the immigration crisis may well propel Golden Dawn to hit 7.5-9%

If I were a Greek, I would, at this point, primarily be motivated , in this respect, by the need to keep the borders maximally open. Greece is still not guaranteed to be within EU 5 years from now, nor are Greeks likely to be treated any better than Syrians if they are kicked out - and, gosh, will they want to be able to go to Germany if that happens.

[Zanas]

I'm wondering if the immigration crisis may well propel Golden Dawn to hit 7.5-9%

If I were a Greek, I would, at this point, primarily be motivated , in this respect, by the need to keep the borders maximally open. Greece is still not guaranteed to be within EU 5 years from now, nor are Greeks likely to be treated any better than Syrians if they are kicked out - and, gosh, will they want to be able to go to Germany if that happens.

If I were Greek at this point, I think I would try to ship as many refugees as I can to the rump of the EU, just, you know, to piss them off, that'll teach them.

[politicus]

I'm wondering if the immigration crisis may well propel Golden Dawn to hit 7.5-9%

If I were a Greek, I would, at this point, primarily be motivated, in this respect, by the need to keep the borders maximally open. Greece is still not guaranteed to be within EU 5 years from now, nor are Greeks likely to be treated any better than Syrians if they are kicked out - and, gosh, will they want to be able to go to Germany if that happens.

1) There is no procedure for throwing countries out of the EU, so of course they are guaranteed to stay in the EU. You would need the other countries to leave the current EU and form a new union without Greece to do that, that is simply not worth the costs.

2) Keeping borders open within the EU depends on keeping external borders secure, so while I agree that Greece has a strong interest in upholding free movement of labour within the EU this is a major incentive to close the external EU borders more effectively - incl. the sea borders. This would also help Greece gain goodwill in the rest of the EU and they could get the funding from Western Europe. It is one of the areas where an ND led government would have a much better bargaining position vs. the lenders because they would be willing to beef up border security and try reestablishing control of the situation, Syriza has mostly let things slide.

3) "Greeks would be received no better than Syrians" is absurd and one of those lines it is hard not to see as trolling or an inane provocation. You can not possibly be serious saying that unless you are clueless about both recent European history (which you clearly are not) and prevailing social attitudes, with resulting prejudices and stigma in Europe. The negative European experience with Muslim immigrants and the resulting Islamophobia is a core factor in these attitudes with Arabs being seen as most problematic group in most countries (beaten by Somalis in some). There is no way mediterranean Europeans from a culturally Christian country would be perceived anywhere near as negative as Syrian Muslims in Germany (talking long term here - not the current spontaneous reception) or other Western European countries and Christian Syrians would be included in the general Arab stigma.

[rob in cal]

   One would have to think that so many of the jobs that will go to the migrants in Germany would in many cases have been filled, or could have been filled, by southern or eastern europeans from EU states, such as Greece.  My guess is that the average German would be much more comfortable with someone from there, then the middle east or Africa, once the current honeymoon wears off.

[ag]

3) "Greeks would be received no better than Syrians" is absurd and one of those lines it is hard not to see as trolling or an inane provocation. You can not possibly be serious saying that unless you are clueless about both recent European history (which you clearly are not) and prevailing social attitudes, with resulting prejudices and stigma in Europe. The negative European experience with Muslim immigrants and the resulting Islamophobia is a core factor in these attitudes with Arabs being seen as most problematic group in most countries (beaten by Somalis in some). There is no way mediterranean Europeans from a culturally Christian country would be perceived anywhere near as negative as Syrian Muslims in Germany (talking long term here - not the current spontaneous reception) or other Western European countries and Christian Syrians would be included in the general Arab stigma.

There is nothing that is easier to create than a negative attitude towards foreigners. A million Greek migrants over a couple of years will easily do the trick. Though, in fact, you do not even need that. The speed with which Ukrainians became hated on the Russian street (these days they frequently get worse attitudes than Chechens) is a great example - and you are gravely mistaken if you think this could not happen in Denmark. I am pretty certain, that, under the right circumstances, it would take 6 months or less for Norwegians to start being assaulted on the streets in Copenhagen. And, of course, you would be writing lengthy explanations here for why that would be very understandable.

[jaichind]

It seems all the last minute polls show a very small SYRIZA lead over ND so most likely SYRIZA will most likely come out ahead.  Of course the main unknown would be the turnout rate of SYRIZA voters.

[politicus]

It seems all the last minute polls show a very small SYRIZA lead over ND so most likely SYRIZA will most likely come out ahead.  Of course the main unknown would be the turnout rate of SYRIZA voters.

It also seems a lot of polls are "doctored", there are far too many polls showing a tie for this to be statistically credible.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It seems all the last minute polls show a very small SYRIZA lead over ND so most likely SYRIZA will most likely come out ahead.  Of course the main unknown would be the turnout rate of SYRIZA voters.

It also seems a lot of polls are "doctored", there are far too many polls showing a tie for this to be statistically credible.

Yeah, the last polls seem like a blatant case of herding to me. It's hard to believe that in two days there were 4-5% swings.
But yes, the conventional wisdom is that SYRIZA has a small lead and is a favorite to win if its disaffected voters come home.

[Lasitten]

Have you noticed that the american leftist Jacobin magazine has a lot of good articles about the left in Greece?

What Popular Unity can do?

No compromises (KKE)

To fight another day (Syriza)

A new strategy (popular unity)

Why we broke with Syriza (Youth of Syriza)

[politicus]

Have you noticed that the American leftist Jacobin magazine has a lot of good articles about the left in Greece?

What Popular Unity can do?

No compromises (KKE)

To fight another day (Syriza)

A new strategy (popular unity)

Why we broke with Syriza (Youth of Syriza)

Jacobin is routinely ridiculed around here, but some likely read it.

I think most have given up on the Greek left by now. It would have been interesting if Syriza had dared a Grexit and some attempts at creating an alternative economic model due to a "everything is in the dumps, we might as well try to make something positive out of it" approach. But it was always a populist and "protect our rights" movement, and this aspect dominated at the expense of the few more visionary elements that once were in their platform.

[Lasitten]

Have you noticed that the American leftist Jacobin magazine has a lot of good articles about the left in Greece?

What Popular Unity can do?

No compromises (KKE)

To fight another day (Syriza)

A new strategy (popular unity)

Why we broke with Syriza (Youth of Syriza)

Jacobin is routinely ridiculed around here, but some likely read it.

I usually like to follow Jacobin but they have their problems. What I liked in these articles is that they open up the selfunderstanding of these movements. Even the KKE seems to have some kind of understanding of society and they're not just a punch of old stalinists.

[politicus]

Have you noticed that the American leftist Jacobin magazine has a lot of good articles about the left in Greece?

What Popular Unity can do?

No compromises (KKE)

To fight another day (Syriza)

A new strategy (popular unity)

Why we broke with Syriza (Youth of Syriza)

Jacobin is routinely ridiculed around here, but some likely read it.

I usually like to follow Jacobin but they have their problems. What I liked in these articles is that they open up the selfunderstanding of these movements. Even the KKE seems to have some kind of understanding of society and they're not just a punch of old stalinists.

Nah, they just view society through some very tinted lenses.

[jaichind]

http://news.yahoo.com/initial-turnout-election-seen-low-among-weary-greeks-110638513.html

Turnout seems to be low so far.   Should be positive news for ND in a relative sense.  Of course helps XA and KKE the most.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Turnout seems to be low so far. 

Not surprising. Who'd bother to vote in an election when there'll be a new one in no time.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I don't know much about Greek elections, when will we get results from this election?

[Hydera]

I don't know much about Greek elections, when will we get results from this election?

Around 9-10 PM which is like 3 on the East Coast.

[jaichind]

I assume that

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/v/public/index.html#{"cls":"main","params":{}}

is the link to results as they come in.

[jaichind]

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/09/20/greek-elections-exit-poll-greeks-give-syriza-a-lead-over-new-democracy/

The first results of a joint exit poll by five different research companies show leftist SYRIZA leading over conservative New Democracy. The exit polls show SYRIZA getting 30-34 percent of the vote with New Democracy trailing at 28.5-32.5 percent.

Ultra-rightist Golden Dawn will be third getting 6.5-8 percent. Fourth place will be a fight between center-left PASOK-DIMAR and the Greek Communist Party (KKE) both getting 5.5.-7 percent of the vote. Center-left Potami come sixth getting 4-5.5 percent.

Independent Greeks (ANEL) seem to be getting in parliament with 3-4 percent. So do the Centrists Union at the same percentages (3-4) and almost secure a place in parliament. Finally, extreme-leftist Popular Unity looks like it is in last place with 2.5-3.5 percent.

[jaichind]

ANT1 exit poll seem to match that came out on Greekreporter

[jaichind]

[Hydera]

I think its great in a weird sense that Syriza won because they were bound to campaign to undermine the third memorandum if ND won. And now they have to own it.

[jaichind]

Another exit poll has Sryiza at 31-35.

[Hash]

With some 15.3% reporting, turnout is 52.9% and stuff stand as follows:

Syriza 35.12%
ND 28.41%
Golden Shower 7.35%
Pasok 6.71%
KKE 5.49%
Potami 3.73%
Anel 3.71%
EK 3.45%
LAE 2.74%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, LAE really fell flat, didn't it?