Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

For what it's worth, one poll has the following results :

Syriza 24
ND 22
XA 6
Potami 5.5
Pasok, KKE, LAE 4.5
EK 4
Anel 3.5
Others 5

That would put Syriza around 110-115 seats, not anywhere near a majority, and in need for probably 2, possibly 3, coalition partners, if we exclude ND.

Is there any possibility that--God forbid--ND could be the plurality party?

[Vosem]

For what it's worth, one poll has the following results :

Syriza 24
ND 22
XA 6
Potami 5.5
Pasok, KKE, LAE 4.5
EK 4
Anel 3.5
Others 5

That would put Syriza around 110-115 seats, not anywhere near a majority, and in need for probably 2, possibly 3, coalition partners, if we exclude ND.

Is there any possibility that--God forbid--ND could be the plurality party?

Well, this is the only poll conducted after the election call. SYRIZA is barely leading ND, by single digits, and the rumor on AH.com is that Zoe Konstantopoulou and fmr. Finance Minister Varoufakis are planning to break off of SYRIZA to form yet another breakaway group (unconnected with LAE). ND has a shot to win at the moment, but if SYRIZA really undergoes another round of defections ND may yet become favored.

[Zanas]

Another poll :

Syriza 23
ND 19.5
XA 6.5
KKE 5
Pasok 4.5
Potami 4
LAE 3.5
EK 3
Anel 2
Others 3.5
Undecided 25.5

Well that's underwhelming for pretty much everybody.

[DavidB.]

Another poll :

Syriza 23
ND 19.5
XA 6.5
KKE 5
Pasok 4.5
Potami 4
LAE 3.5
EK 3
Anel 2
Others 3.5
Undecided 25.5

Well that's underwhelming for pretty much everybody.

Yeah, but undecideds are normally not included as a specific category, so this poll is pretty worthless.

[politicus]

September 20 it is. President Prokopis Pavlopoulos has signed a decree calling the election on the expected date. 

[politicus]

Tsipras has ruled out working with Pasok and Potami, so he is apparently banking on an outright win (or at least pretending to).  I doubt "all or nothing" will work this time around.

Supreme Court President Vassiliki Thanou serves as interim Prime Minister until the election - first female PM in Greece.

[jaichind]

A bunch of polls came out.  All of them had Syriza with a 1%-3% lead over ND and ANEL not making it past 3% threshold (although ANEL tend to under-poll.)    None of them have any chance of Sryiza-ANEL getting a majority even if ANEL makes it past 3%.  Since Tsipras ruled out working with ND, PASOK and Potami post-election and if Syriza is the largest party, then the only way out is another election of Tsipras moves aside for a grand coalition to be led someone else from Syriza.

[politicus]

A bunch of polls came out.  All of them had Syriza with a 1%-3% lead over ND and ANEL not making it past 3% threshold (although ANEL tend to under-poll.)    None of them have any chance of Sryiza-ANEL getting a majority even if ANEL makes it past 3%.  Since Tsipras ruled out working with ND, PASOK and Potami post-election and if Syriza is the largest party, then the only way out is another election of Tsipras moves aside for a grand coalition to be led by someone else from Syriza.

Or - more likely - Tsipras eating his own words.

[politicus]

Zoe K. has said she is starting her own party after the dissolution of parliament.

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/08/26/former-greeces-house-speaker-to-start-new-party/

[jaichind]

Any news from Movement of Democratic Socialists?  Are they merging back into PASOK or at least form a joint list with PASOK ?

[politicus]

Any news from Movement of Democratic Socialists?  Are they merging back into PASOK or at least form a joint list with PASOK ?

No. KIDISO demanded more influence on the joint list than PASOK was willing to give them.

[Cassius]

Greece is rapidly turning into an election watcher's dream come true (albeit a Greek's nightmare ).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Of the three polls today, two are fairly similar; but this one is pretty off the wall:

Syriza 26.5
Nd 21.1
popular Unity 11.4
Golden Dawn 10.1
KKE 8.7
Potami 6.2
EK 5.2
ANEL 4.3
pASOK 4.0

I'm guessing this pollster (which doesn't have that much of a track record) is over polling populists; that or the others pollsters aren't. Notably that would be the highest Golden Dawn performance ever (beating their performance in the low turnout 2014 Euros), the best KKE performance since 1990 and a huge upswing for Popular Unity.

Greece is rapidly turning into an election watcher's dream come true (albeit a Greek's nightmare ).

Yes, it's awfully nice of Greece to volunteer their country to turn into an Atlas spectator sport.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A bunch of polls came out.  All of them had Syriza with a 1%-3% lead over ND and ANEL not making it past 3% threshold (although ANEL tend to under-poll.)    None of them have any chance of Sryiza-ANEL getting a majority even if ANEL makes it past 3%.  Since Tsipras ruled out working with ND, PASOK and Potami post-election and if Syriza is the largest party, then the only way out is another election of Tsipras moves aside for a grand coalition to be led by someone else from Syriza.

Or - more likely - Tsipras eating his own words.

He left himself a bit wiggle room. He said that there won't be a coalition government "with him as prime minister". So he left open the possibility of one with another person as PM.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Maybe they can bring back another "technocrat"? I wonder what Lucas Papademos is doing nowadays...

[Landslide Lyndon]

Maybe they can bring back another "technocrat"? I wonder what Lucas Papademos is doing nowadays...

No, technocrat is a dirty word for the Greek Left. They'd rather see a fascist become PM than someone like Papadimos.

[politicus]

PASOK and DIMAR will run together as the Democratic Coalition.

[BundouYMB]

Rass out this morning:
SYRIZA -- 28.6%
ND -- 25.9%
POTAMI -- 7%
XA -- 6.7%
KKE -- 6.6%
LAE -- 6.2%
EK -- 5%
PASOK 3.7%
----------------------------
ANEL -- 2.7%
Others -- 7.6%

[politicus]

PASOK and DIMAR will run together as the Democratic Coalition.

BK pointed out it is the fourth consecutive election where PASOK doesn't run as PASOK.

I think DIMAR image-wise would have been better of teaming up with KIDISO; but apparently Papandreou has too big an ego to offer them a proper deal.

[jaichind]

PASOK and DIMAR will run together as the Democratic Coalition.

Smart move.  I have no idea why KIDISO does not join this.  It seems to be if the first time around in Jan KIDISO cannot cross 3% then then why would KIDISO voters even vote for KIDISO this time since it will be a wasted vote.  They will vote PASOK-DIMAR.  This shift will easily overwhelm any drift, if any, to KIDISO.  I guess  Papandreou's ego is just too big.

[politicus]

PASOK and DIMAR will run together as the Democratic Coalition.

Smart move.  I have no idea why KIDISO does not join this.  It seems to be if the first time around in Jan KIDISO cannot cross 3% then then why would KIDISO voters even vote for KIDISO this time since it will be a wasted vote.  They will vote PASOK-DIMAR.  This shift will easily overwhelm any drift, if any, to KIDISO.  I guess  Papandreou's ego is just too big.

KIDISO was already dissatisfied with the number of seats offered by PASOK in their previous negotiations and with DIMAR candidates on the list there will be even fewer sloths on offer.

[Landslide Lyndon]

PASOK and DIMAR will run together as the Democratic Coalition.

What a joke! DIMAR took less than 0,5% in January and a significant part of them (among whom former president Fotis Kouvelis) disagreed with this move and will probably run with SYRIZA.

[jaichind]

PASOK and DIMAR will run together as the Democratic Coalition.

What a joke! DIMAR took less than 0,5% in January and a significant part of them (among whom former president Fotis Kouvelis) disagreed with this move and will probably run with SYRIZA.

Yes, but they have no where to go.  Syriza did not take them back in Jan 2015 and now they have a lot less to bargain with so there is no way Syriza will take them.  So they have to go with PASOK.

[warandwar]

PASOK and DIMAR will run together as the Democratic Coalition.

What a joke! DIMAR took less than 0,5% in January and a significant part of them (among whom former president Fotis Kouvelis) disagreed with this move and will probably run with SYRIZA.

Yes, but they have no where to go.  Syriza did not take them back in Jan 2015 and now they have a lot less to bargain with so there is no way Syriza will take them.  So they have to go with PASOK.

DIMAR decided not to be with SYRIZA, not the other way around. Most of their voters went to SYRIZA, anyways.

[politicus]

ANTARSYA has decided not to run on a joint list with Popular Unity, but two Maoist micro-groups (ARAN and ARAS) have left ANTARSYA to run on the Popular Unity list.

Zoe K. is currently announcing her new party at a monster 3 hour press conference.

Meanwhile DIMAR is quarreling about whether the decision to team up with PASOK was legitimate or a coup! Fotis Kouvelis says the people willing to join the Democratic Coalition are traitors and sell-outs.

EDIT: Zoe K. is running as an indie on Popular Unity's list list. A bit disappointing, but this political soap opera should still be pretty entertaining.