Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015

[Antonio the Sixth]

This election is shaping up to have a dire outcome for Greece no matter which party ends up "winning". The only thing that could have given some hope was a Syriza absolute majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nothing could have given hope. There is no hope. There will be no hope for decades.

[politicus]

Fotis Kouvelis has now endorsed Syriza.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Fotis Kouvelis has now endorsed Syriza.

GAME CHANGER!!!

[jmlv]

Kouvelis was in the coalition with ND and PASOK. I am not sure that helps Syriza. Probably on the contrary.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/MacroPolis_gr/statuses/638794469370937344

Pulse poll for Action 24
SYRIZA 27.5%
ΝD 26.5
G Dawn 6.5
Potami 5.5
ΚΚΕ 5.5
PASOK 5.5
Popular Unity 4.5
Cent Union 3
Ind Greeks 2.5

[politicus]

KIDISO has decided not to run. It was (of course..) Papandreou's personal decision, which apparently surprised his colleagues. He cites lack of money to "fight with dignity" in the election as the main reason + bad polls.

He vows to fight on and "strengthen our movement to become a catalyst for the reconstruction of the progressive sector in order to serve effectively and consistently the interests of the Greek people and the country." Talk about being delusional.

[politicus]

Seems fairly accurate except for Syriza, which has been pushed downwards.

[politicus]

ND close to overtaking Syriza in new Alco poll:

SYRIZA: 23.0%
ND: 22.6%
XA: 6.1%
Potami: 4.1%
KKE: 5.5%
ANEL: 2.0%
PASOK: 4.2%
Popular Unity: 3.9%
Union of Centrists: 3.6%
Others: 3.5%

Blanks: 2.2%
Abstain: 5.0%
Undecided: 14.0%

Seat projection:

Syriza 129   
ND 77
XA 21   
Potami 15   
KKE 19   
Pasok 14   
Union of Centrists 12   
Popular Unity 13

[jaichind]

First poll with ND ahead from Mega TV,

ND     25.3
Syriza 25
XA        5.5
PASOK  5.3
KKE      5.1
Patomi  4.6
LAE      4.0
EK        3.2
ANEL    3.0

[Landslide Lyndon]

SYRIZA will lose. Even his MPs seem resigned to that reality and are going through the motions of defending the previous government's record.
They have nothing to sell anymore and every day we see reports about massive defections to LAE.

[jaichind]

SYRIZA will lose. Even his MPs seem resigned to that reality and are going through the motions of defending the previous government's record.
They have nothing to sell anymore and every day we see reports about massive defections to LAE.

As much as I despise Sryiza and Tsipras this seems to be bad news.  If a ND government comes into power we will have a re-run of 2013-2014 where ND will try to carry out reforms but Sryiza will snipe from the opposition.  It is better to make Syriza own the deal they signed and carry it out.

[Landslide Lyndon]

SYRIZA will lose. Even his MPs seem resigned to that reality and are going through the motions of defending the previous government's record.
They have nothing to sell anymore and every day we see reports about massive defections to LAE.

As much as I despise Sryiza and Tsipras this seems to be bad news.  If a ND government comes into power we will have a re-run of 2013-2014 where ND will try to carry out reforms but Sryiza will snipe from the opposition.  It is better to make Syriza own the deal they signed and carry it out.

Only this time SYRIZA will have no credibility criticizing the implementation of a program they negotiated and voted for.
Besides that, they have already clarified that they will support, more or less, the new program even if they lose the election.

Switch the bonus and you get a centre-right majority of ND, Potami and Union of Centrists.

Don't get fooled. Union of Centrists is a joke party headed by a man with clear mental issues that makes Beppe Grillo look like a real statesman.
No serious party will ever even think to hold any kind of talks and legitimize them.

[politicus]

SYRIZA will lose. Even his MPs seem resigned to that reality and are going through the motions of defending the previous government's record.
They have nothing to sell anymore and every day we see reports about massive defections to LAE.

As much as I despise Sryiza and Tsipras this seems to be bad news.  If a ND government comes into power we will have a re-run of 2013-2014 where ND will try to carry out reforms but Sryiza will snipe from the opposition.  It is better to make Syriza own the deal they signed and carry it out.

Only this time SYRIZA will have no credibility criticizing the implementation of a program they negotiated and voted for.
Besides that, they have already clarified that they will support, more or less, the new program even if they lose the election.

Switch the bonus and you get a centre-right majority of ND, Potami and Union of Centrists.

Don't get fooled. Union of Centrists is a joke party headed by a man with clear mental issues that makes Beppe Grillo look like a real statesman.
No serious party will ever even think to hold any kind of talks and legitimize them.

Yeah, I actually know that, but it just slipped my mind. You have so many crazies in Greek politics, it is hard to remember all of them (at least when you stop following it for a year or so, like I did).



Vassilis Leventis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-K5GMKOsWU

[Vosem]

Switch the bonus and you get a centre-right majority of ND, Potami and Union of Centrists.

Isn't ND-Potami-PASOK much more workable and easier? I believe the Union of Centrists has a stated ambition of becoming SYRIZA's junior partner in a coalition.

[politicus]

Switch the bonus and you get a centre-right majority of ND, Potami and Union of Centrists.

Isn't ND-Potami-PASOK much more workable and easier? I believe the Union of Centrists has a stated ambition of becoming SYRIZA's junior partner in a coalition.

Yeah, yeah. See px post above (I have already been called out for that brainfart).

[politicus]

LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-party on the ballot.

SYRIZA's chief spokesperson now says they're willing to work with PASOK and Potami. New tunes.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-partyo on the ballot.

SYRIZA's chief spokesperson now says they're willing to work with PASOK and Potami. New tunes.

Tsipras's refusal to cooperate with anyone but ANEL proves to be catastrophic.
Voters are tired of the back-to-back elections and yearn for some stability. So they prefer to vote ND, even if they disagree politically, just because they have declared that they are willing to form a coalition government with anyone of the pro-EU parties.

[Helsinkian]

LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-partyo on the ballot.

This probably benefits ANEL?

[jaichind]

LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-partyo on the ballot.

SYRIZA's chief spokesperson now says they're willing to work with PASOK and Potami. New tunes.

So the transformation of the rump Syriza to neo-PASOK is complete. 

[politicus]

LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-partyo on the ballot.

This probably benefits ANEL?

Probably a tiny bit, but not much - and ANEL is likely tainted by being allied with Syriza. LAOS is practically irrelevant by now anyway.

Last time ND campaigned to the right on immigration and law & order and got a lot of former LAOS supporters. There is a bloc of floating right wingers that both ND and ANEL could theoretically get, but not sure how much Syriza hurts ANEL among right wingers outside of their core audience. px might know, but it is a "niche-market".

[Landslide Lyndon]

LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-partyo on the ballot.

This probably benefits ANEL?

Probably a tiny bit, but not much - and ANEL is likely tainted by being allied with Syriza. LAOS is practically irrelevant by now anyway.

Last time ND campaigned to the right on immigration and law & order and got a lot of former LAOS supporters. There is a bloc of floating right wingers that both ND and ANEL could theoretically get, but not sure how much Syriza hurts ANEL among right wingers outside of their core audience. px might know, but it is a "niche-market".

ANEL is hurt not so much because of its collaboration with SYRIZA per se. They are hurt because despite all their anti-austerity hysteria (Kammenos went so far to ask his supporters to lynch a PASOK MP who voted for the first package in 2010), eventually they too voted for the new program.

[Famous Mortimer]

LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-partyo on the ballot.

This probably benefits ANEL?

Probably a tiny bit, but not much - and ANEL is likely tainted by being allied with Syriza. LAOS is practically irrelevant by now anyway.

Last time ND campaigned to the right on immigration and law & order and got a lot of former LAOS supporters. There is a bloc of floating right wingers that both ND and ANEL could theoretically get, but not sure how much Syriza hurts ANEL among right wingers outside of their core audience. px might know, but it is a "niche-market".

ANEL is hurt not so much because of its collaboration with SYRIZA per se. They are hurt because despite all their anti-austerity hysteria (Kammenos went so far to ask his supporters to lynch a PASOK MP who voted for the first package in 2010), eventually they too voted for the new program.

Agreed. ANEL voters are likely mad they voted for the bailout. If they didn't want to support a SYRIZA coalition, they wouldn't have voted ANEL in the first place, since joining SYRIZA's coalition was a big part of their campaign.

[politicus]

LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-party on the ballot.

This probably benefits ANEL?

Probably a tiny bit, but not much - and ANEL is likely tainted by being allied with Syriza. LAOS is practically irrelevant by now anyway.

Last time ND campaigned to the right on immigration and law & order and got a lot of former LAOS supporters. There is a bloc of floating right wingers that both ND and ANEL could theoretically get, but not sure how much Syriza hurts ANEL among right wingers outside of their core audience. px might know, but it is a "niche-market".

ANEL is hurt not so much because of its collaboration with SYRIZA per se. They are hurt because despite all their anti-austerity hysteria (Kammenos went so far to ask his supporters to lynch a PASOK MP who voted for the first package in 2010), eventually they too voted for the new program.

Agreed. ANEL voters are likely mad they voted for the bailout. If they didn't want to support a SYRIZA coalition, they wouldn't have voted ANEL in the first place, since joining SYRIZA's coalition was a big part of their campaign.

Sure, but the group we (Helsinkian and I) were talking about was not ANEL voters, but the (very) few remaining LAOS voters + the group of former LAOS voters and other right wing Conservative SoCons/nationalists etc. The group identified by ND strategists as the "floating right wingers" last time.

It is obvious why ANEL voters are leaving them, the question is if they can get enough others to join them to pass the threshold.

(I dont think so, but it would be interesting to hear px view and he seemed to just talk about ANEL in general)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Most LAOS voters were fascists that have gone to Golden Dawn. The rest had mostly gone to ND (if they were pro-bailout) or ANEL (if they were anti-bailout conspiracy theorists).
If there are any floating right-wingers they will probably go to ND now that there seems to be a good chance to win the election.