Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015

[jaichind]

I assume this time EK should make it over the 3% threshold and KIDISO will merge back into PASOK.  I wonder if DIMAR will merge into PASOK or SYRIZA this time around ?

[jaichind]

Bild reports an internal poll that shows

Syriza   28%
ND        25%
PU          8%

In which case Syriza will be some distance from majority.  If this comes to pass I assume it will be something like a Syriza-Potami-EK coalition.

[jaichind]

Wow.  So now it is really just the Tsipras party and SYRIZA in name only.

[jaichind]

Tsipras has rule out a post-election coalition with ND, PASOK and Potami.    He has to hope then ANEL gets past the threshold.  And that might not be enough.  Of course KKE and XA are out.  So he is just left with EK or LAE.  It seems not likely on current polls that Sryiza + ANEL + 50 seat bonus will be a majority.  So in that case will Tsipras go with EK which would be a very awkward alliance. Or he can go with LAE which then begs the question of what is the point of the election.

[jaichind]

Help me-- what is EK and LAE?

EK is  Union of Centrists which is a centrist liberal pro-EU/Euro party  They have been around for a while but could never break above the 3% threshold.  Now they are polling above last few polls 3%.

LAE is the Greek acronym for Popular Unity.

[jaichind]

A bunch of polls came out.  All of them had Syriza with a 1%-3% lead over ND and ANEL not making it past 3% threshold (although ANEL tend to under-poll.)    None of them have any chance of Sryiza-ANEL getting a majority even if ANEL makes it past 3%.  Since Tsipras ruled out working with ND, PASOK and Potami post-election and if Syriza is the largest party, then the only way out is another election of Tsipras moves aside for a grand coalition to be led someone else from Syriza.

[jaichind]

Any news from Movement of Democratic Socialists?  Are they merging back into PASOK or at least form a joint list with PASOK ?

[jaichind]

PASOK and DIMAR will run together as the Democratic Coalition.

Smart move.  I have no idea why KIDISO does not join this.  It seems to be if the first time around in Jan KIDISO cannot cross 3% then then why would KIDISO voters even vote for KIDISO this time since it will be a wasted vote.  They will vote PASOK-DIMAR.  This shift will easily overwhelm any drift, if any, to KIDISO.  I guess  Papandreou's ego is just too big.

[jaichind]

PASOK and DIMAR will run together as the Democratic Coalition.

What a joke! DIMAR took less than 0,5% in January and a significant part of them (among whom former president Fotis Kouvelis) disagreed with this move and will probably run with SYRIZA.

Yes, but they have no where to go.  Syriza did not take them back in Jan 2015 and now they have a lot less to bargain with so there is no way Syriza will take them.  So they have to go with PASOK.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/MacroPolis_gr/statuses/638794469370937344

Pulse poll for Action 24
SYRIZA 27.5%
ΝD 26.5
G Dawn 6.5
Potami 5.5
ΚΚΕ 5.5
PASOK 5.5
Popular Unity 4.5
Cent Union 3
Ind Greeks 2.5

[jaichind]

First poll with ND ahead from Mega TV,

ND     25.3
Syriza 25
XA        5.5
PASOK  5.3
KKE      5.1
Patomi  4.6
LAE      4.0
EK        3.2
ANEL    3.0

[jaichind]

SYRIZA will lose. Even his MPs seem resigned to that reality and are going through the motions of defending the previous government's record.
They have nothing to sell anymore and every day we see reports about massive defections to LAE.

As much as I despise Sryiza and Tsipras this seems to be bad news.  If a ND government comes into power we will have a re-run of 2013-2014 where ND will try to carry out reforms but Sryiza will snipe from the opposition.  It is better to make Syriza own the deal they signed and carry it out.

[jaichind]

LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-partyo on the ballot.

SYRIZA's chief spokesperson now says they're willing to work with PASOK and Potami. New tunes.

So the transformation of the rump Syriza to neo-PASOK is complete. 

[jaichind]

Don't get fooled. Union of Centrists is a joke party headed by a man with clear mental issues that makes Beppe Grillo look like a real statesman.
No serious party will ever even think to hold any kind of talks and legitimize them.

Why is EK getting such a surge in support in the polls this election?  It is about voting for a non-mainstream non-establishment but centrist/pro-Euro/liberal party?

[jaichind]

Metron: ND ahead

ND       24
Syriza   23.4
KKE       5.2
XA         5.1
Patomi   4.8
PASOK   4
EK         4
LAE       3.4
ANEL     2

[jaichind]

Something calling itself "VoicenNews" is regularly showing massively inflated results for the anti-establishment : Golden Dawn getting more than a tenth of the vote (the others show them with seven at most) is the most terrifying; but there are similarly inflated figures for the Communists, Union of Dentists, ANEL and LAE.

Conversely the polls showing ND leads and deflated populates are from two of the agencies that (disasterously) polled the referendum, so perhaps this freak agency is on the money.

Well, the 2 polls that had ND ahead are GPO and Metron.  In Jan 2015 elections both did not perform that badly but both did overpoll ND by around 2%. With that in mind most likely ND is still behind Syriza by 1% or so.

[jaichind]

Will Teleia run this time?  Teleia came out of nowhere and did quite well in the Jan 2015 election.

[jaichind]

A bunch of polls keep coming in nearly every day. By averaging all of them, we could get somewhat of a precise picture of what's going on. I'll try to compile them when I have a moment. The general picture is :

Syriza-ND basically tied around 26-27%
XA 3d, but around 6%
Pasok, Potami, KKE around 5-5.5%
EK not further down around 4.5-5%
LAE between 3.5 and 6%, probably the most difficult to poll right now.
Anel not making it to 3% or barely.

Last few polls has ANEL mostly over 3%.  Since ANEL tends to under-poll chances are better than 50/50 that ANEL will cross 3% based on the recent polls.

[jaichind]

ND offers to form a national government with Syriza if they win - but without Tsipras.

greece.greekreporter.com/2015/09/06/greek-main-opposition-leader-proposes-a-coalition-govt-with-syriza/

BUMP

No comments to this?

It basically destroys Syrizas last hope. Among other things many won't care about who gets the bonus now.

Even if this were the case and the marginal voter believes ND, who wins the 50 seat bonus would still be relevant since the party that wins the 50 seat bonus should be able to dictate who is PM although now it seems less and less likely it will be Tsipras one way or another, even if Syriza comes out ahead.

[jaichind]

Latest batch of polls still shows Syriza will a small lead over ND.  What is interesting is how much of the radical left vote is holding up.  Syriza + LAE is almost up to what Syriza got in Jan 2015.  It will be enough this time due to decline of ANEL and of course LAE not part of Syriza.  It is interesting how the number of viable parties that we can already preclude from any ruling bloc is going up.  It used to be KKE and XA.  Now we can add LAE to that and if EK makes it in as it seems likely it has to be added to that list.  And unless  Tsipras gets to be PM, we can pretty much rule out ANEL as well.  So we are left to search from Syriza, ND, PASOK, and Potami for a combination that can get to 150.

[jaichind]

It seems all the last minute polls show a very small SYRIZA lead over ND so most likely SYRIZA will most likely come out ahead.  Of course the main unknown would be the turnout rate of SYRIZA voters.

[jaichind]

http://news.yahoo.com/initial-turnout-election-seen-low-among-weary-greeks-110638513.html

Turnout seems to be low so far.   Should be positive news for ND in a relative sense.  Of course helps XA and KKE the most.

[jaichind]

I assume that

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/v/public/index.html#{"cls":"main","params":{}}

is the link to results as they come in.

[jaichind]

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/09/20/greek-elections-exit-poll-greeks-give-syriza-a-lead-over-new-democracy/

The first results of a joint exit poll by five different research companies show leftist SYRIZA leading over conservative New Democracy. The exit polls show SYRIZA getting 30-34 percent of the vote with New Democracy trailing at 28.5-32.5 percent.

Ultra-rightist Golden Dawn will be third getting 6.5-8 percent. Fourth place will be a fight between center-left PASOK-DIMAR and the Greek Communist Party (KKE) both getting 5.5.-7 percent of the vote. Center-left Potami come sixth getting 4-5.5 percent.

Independent Greeks (ANEL) seem to be getting in parliament with 3-4 percent. So do the Centrists Union at the same percentages (3-4) and almost secure a place in parliament. Finally, extreme-leftist Popular Unity looks like it is in last place with 2.5-3.5 percent.

[jaichind]

ANT1 exit poll seem to match that came out on Greekreporter